SpaceX
SpaceX targets Falcon 9 reusability milestone on first dedicated rideshare launch
SpaceX’s first dedicated rideshare – a collection of small satellites manifested for launch and organized by a third party – is into the final stretches of prelaunch preparations, readying for a ride to orbit on a flight-proven Falcon 9 no earlier than (NET) November 19th.
While unconfirmed, it appears that SpaceX is working to make SSO-A’s launch the first time the same Falcon 9 booster flies three missions, an accomplishment that may look minor up close but is actually a major step forward for orbital-class reusable rockets.
Who doesn't love a CONVOY? Watch our spacecraft start its journey to the launch pad here: https://t.co/97MxmjnKfl #ssoa #smallsatexpress
— Spaceflight (@SpaceflightInc) October 22, 2018
SSO-A organizer and launch customer Spaceflight Industries announced yesterday (Oct. 22) that the collection of several dozen satellites – called a “stack” when integrated together in and on Spaceflight’s custom dispenser – arrived at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) within the last few days, setting the stage for post-shipment health checkouts and encapsulation inside Falcon 9’s payload fairing.
“The assembled stack has now traveled by road 1,075 miles (1730 km) from Seattle. It will travel another 357 miles (575 km) to reach its targeted orbit. So we could say that the longest part of the journey is over…but the most exciting part is still to come!”
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- Spaceflight’s convoy of support vehicles follow as the stack is shipped from Auburn, WA to Vandenberg, CA, a journey of ~1000 miles. (Spaceflight)
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- Spaceflight’s SSO-A Upper Free Flyer visualized deploying cubesats shortly after launch on Falcon 9. (Spaceflight)
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- SSO-A’s fairly intricate deployment sequence. (Spaceflight)
Arrival at the launch site is a huge milestone for any satellite or spacecraft and that is perhaps even more so the case for massive rideshare missions like SSO-A. The task of wrangling together dozens upon dozens of satellites of all different shapes and sizes – all coming from dozens of customers spread across the world – is understandably unenviable from a logistical standpoint. Despite the major hurdles and the apparent loss or slippage of a few dozen previously-planned satellites, it appears that Spaceflight Industries has made it through logistical hell and can now begin to focus on prelaunch operations after arriving at or near SpaceX’s California launch site.
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If there were any stragglers with satellites that were not quite able to make it to Spaceflight’s Auburn, WA integration facilities ahead of shipment to California, there may still be a very limited time-frame for those customers to redirect their spacecraft to California and integrate with the full stack before the whole thing is closed up inside Falcon 9’s payload fairing.
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- Falcon 9 B1048.2 landed at LZ-4 after its second successful launch. (SpaceX)
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- Falcon 9 B1048 landed at LZ-4 after its second launch and is now being refurbished on the opposite coast. (SpaceX)
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- A render of Spaceflight’s SSO-A dispensers attached to Falcon 9’s second stage.
Third time’s the charm
For Falcon 9, SSO-A is equally exciting. Likely to fly on either booster B1048 or B1046, both now with two successful launches on their records, this mission could mark the first time a Falcon 9 booster completes three orbital-class missions. If the rocket managed a successful recovery, either at SpaceX’s recently-inaugurated Landing Zone-4 (LZ-4) or well-worn drone ship Just Read The Instructions, it would pave the way for its fourth reflight and beyond. SpaceX designed Falcon 9 Block 5 to be capable of a minimum of 10 launches per booster with little to no refurbishment, potentially enabling 100+ flights each with regular maintenance.
If schedules hold, SSO-A will launch as few as five days after SpaceX’s NET November 14th launch of communications satellite Es’Hail-2 on the opposite coast.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
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