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SpaceX prepares Falcon 9 booster for eleventh launch and landing [webcast]

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SpaceX has confirmed that Falcon 9 is on track to launch another batch of Starlink satellites less than 48 hours after a successful United Launch Alliance Atlas V from a pad just two miles south.

Falcon 9 is now scheduled to launch Starlink 4-9 from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Launch Complex 39A no earlier than (NET) 9:35 am EST (14:35 UTC) on Thursday, March 3rd. Oddly, unlike Starlink 4-8, which successfully launched 46 Starlink satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO) on February 21st, Starlink 4-9 – following a seemingly identical trajectory – will carry 47 satellites. The reason for the small difference is unclear.

Last month, SpaceX suffered a significant anomaly when a “geomagnetic storm” warmed Earth’s atmosphere, causing 38 of 49 just-launched Starlink 4-7 satellites to prematurely reenter and burn up. In response, while SpaceX hasn’t officially confirmed the change, it appears that all subsequent Starlink missions are being launched to slightly higher parking orbits. In comparison, Starlink 4-4 – a West Coast mission – launched 52 satellites into a 340 x 210 kilometer (210 x 130 mi) parking orbit in December 2021. Starlink 4-7, an East Coast mission, launched 49 satellites into a 336 x 210 km parking orbit on February 3rd, losing three satellites to account for extra performance needed to safely dodge the Bahamas.

Following Starlink 4-7’s space weather calamity, SpaceX – using an identical trajectory – launched 46 Starlink 4-8 satellites (three fewer than 4-7) from the East Coast into a higher 337 x 325 km parking orbit on February 21st. On February 25th, SpaceX also launched 50 Starlink 4-11 satellites (a reduction of two) from the West Coast into a higher 316 x 306 km parking orbit. In short, after Starlink 4-7, SpaceX appears to be sacrificing a few Starlink satellites to launch to parking orbits that are slightly higher and thus slightly more stable.

While doomed, Starlink 4-7 was still a beautiful launch. (Richard Angle)

In theory, this should entirely prevent a repeat of the Starlink 4-7 anomaly while only marginally increasing the amount of time it should take dead-on-arrival satellites to reenter. While doing so increases the number of satellites Falcon 9 can launch, the main reason SpaceX launches Starlink satellites to such low orbits is to ensure that any failed satellites reenter a matter of days to a few weeks after launch instead of the years it could take at their operational ~550 km (~340 mi) orbits.

Of course, that doesn’t explain why Starlink 4-9 is projected to launch one more Starlink satellite than Starlink 4-8. It’s possible that SpaceX is refining its new insertion orbit on the fly and that Starlink 4-9 is headed to a slightly lower destination after data gathered from 4-8 and 4-11. It’s also possible that SpaceX is tweaking some other aspect of Falcon 9’s mission profile or even modifying Starlink satellites (i.e. adding or subtracting mass) – neither of which would be out of the ordinary for the company.

Regardless, Starlink 4-9 is interesting for a few more reasons. First, it will mark drone ship Just Read The Instruction’s (JRTI) first recovery mission since a mistake made by its onboard Octagrabber rocket nearly lead to the loss of an entire Falcon 9 booster in December 2021. That implies that SpaceX has fully determined and rectified the cause of that anomaly and repaired both the drone ship and its robot. To reach its full launch cadence potential, SpaceX needs at least two operational drone ships on the East Coast. Otherwise, in lieu of rare low-performance missions that allow Falcon 9 boosters to fly back to land, SpaceX can only launch one East Coast Falcon 9 mission every 10 or so days and can’t support Falcon Heavy launches that require two at-sea booster landings.

Falcon 9 B1051. (Richard Angle)
Falcon 9 B1058. (Richard Angle)
Falcon 9 B1060. (Richard Angle)

Additionally, SpaceX has confirmed that Falcon 9 B1060 will launch Starlink 4-9. The mission will be its 11th launch and landing attempt, hopefully making it the third Falcon 9 booster to successfully support 11 orbital-class launches after B1051 and B1058. Together, that means that 3 (15%) of the 19 Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters SpaceX has debuted will have singlehandedly supported 33 (37%) of the 89 Falcon 9 launches the company has completed since May 2018. It’s difficult to imagine a more resounding affirmation of SpaceX’s work on reusability.

Tune in to SpaceX Starlink 4-9 webcast around 9:20 am EST (14:20 UTC) on Thursday, March 3rd to watch the launch live.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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