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SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch in two years is finally coming together
For the first time in more than two years, SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch and dual-booster landing appears to be right around the corner – and it comes with a catch.
In February 2018, after years of anticipation, SpaceX successfully launched its triple-booster Falcon Heavy rocket for the first time in a spectacular show of force. Though the ‘center core’ booster got a little melty on its extremely high-speed reentry and was lost before it could attempt to land, the rocket’s twin side boosters performed an iconic near-simultaneous landing just a handful of miles away from where they lifted off.
Then Falcon Heavy took a good, long break. Ultimately, it would turn out that the debut vehicle was effectively a one-off and over the course of 14 months, SpaceX fairly quickly designed, built, and qualified an entirely new Falcon Heavy rocket based on Falcon 9’s new and improved Block 5 variant. In April 2019, after a few minor delays, that Falcon Heavy Block 5 rocket completed its own launch debut and first mission for a paying customer. This time around, all three boosters – two by land and one by sea – survived reentry and performed flawless landings on a drone ship and two Landing Zones.
A mere two months later, both of Falcon Heavy Block 5’s first two recovered side boosters flew again in support of the US Air Force’s STP-2 mission – a combined demonstration flight and rideshare mostly designed to push the rocket to its limits and help the military qualify it for high-value payloads. Once more, those side boosters successfully returned for a simultaneous landing at SpaceX’s Landing Zones but the mission’s Block 5 center core’s reentry was – as SpaceX itself partially expected – too hot, burning essential components and resulting in a hard ‘landing’ in the Atlantic Ocean. Otherwise, the mission was a spectacular success and gave the US military practically all the data it needed to qualify the world’s largest operational rocket to launch its payloads.
Shockingly, however, that June 2019 launch would end up being Falcon Heavy’s third and latest. In the almost 26 months since, the rocket hasn’t flown once. Originally scheduled to launch a fourth time as early as Q4 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic ultimately delayed the rocket’s next two launches (or gave the satellite manufacturer(s) perfect scapegoats for technical delays) into 2021.
Known as USSF-44 and USSF-52 (formerly AFSPC-44/52), both missions are scheduled to launch ethereal US military spy and/or communications satellites. USSF-44 is arguably the most important, as it will mark SpaceX’s first direct launch to geostationary orbit (GEO) for any customer – let alone one as exacting as the US military. USSF-52 is a much simpler and more traditional launch to an elliptical geostationary transfer orbit (GTO).
About a year ago, for unknown reasons, the two missions swapped positions, with USSF-44 taking the lead. Expected to launch in June 2021 as of early this year, SpaceflightNow first reported that USSF-44 had slipped further still to October – and USSF-52 into 2022 – this May. Since then, that’s where the mission’s schedule has tentatively lain.
Finally, on August 12th, SpaceX filed an FCC application for rocket communication permissions. While otherwise ordinary, this particular request stated that it was for Falcon Heavy recovery operations and, more specifically, for the simultaneous recovery of two Falcon Heavy boosters at sea. Out of an abundance of caution and conservatism and combined with the generally challenging nature of direct-to-GEO launches, Falcon Heavy’s first such mission for the US military will require SpaceX to expend the rocket’s center booster and recover both side boosters at sea with two separate drone ships.
Falcon Heavy’s USSF-52 GTO launch isn’t as demanding and its mission profile is expected to allow SpaceX to recover all three boosters. As such, an FCC filing for a dual-drone-ship Falcon Heavy side booster recoveries practically guarantees that it’s for USSF-44. Per the application, SpaceX expects the mission to occur no earlier than September 25th. Almost simultaneously, launch photographer Ben Cooper also updated a long-running list of upcoming East Coast launches, confirming that Falcon Heavy’s fourth launch (USSF-44) remains on track for October 2021.
Ultimately, while delays are possible and likely probable, there now appears to be a strong chance that Falcon Heavy will launch for the first time in 28 months before the end of 2021.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.
Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.
Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.
Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.
The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”
Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”
The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.
Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.
Elon Musk
SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock
Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”
The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.
A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.
Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.
How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”
The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.
Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.
Tesla Full Self-Driving is now the centerpiece of the company’s newly revised Referral Program, which launched on October 29.
Instead of referring people to purchase vehicles and the referrer receiving $250 in Tesla Credit, the new program now incentivizes Full Self-Driving subscriptions.
If a Tesla owner is on an FSD trial and uses a referral code to subscribe to Full Self-Driving, the person whose Referral Link was used will receive one month of FSD (Supervised). Their code can be utilized 12 times per year, with January 1 marking the reset date.
Realistically, this means that if your Referral Code is used by 12 Tesla owners on an FSD trial, you will receive a full year of FSD for free.
🚨 Here is Tesla’s new Referral Program for Full Self-Driving (Supervised):
When someone subscribes to FSD using your link, you’ll get a month free. Up to a year of FSD is available to you for free!
If you’d like to use my link: https://t.co/g00IX9OCE3 https://t.co/GFBzEO2jjS
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 30, 2026
The previous program made it pretty difficult to get referrals; buying a vehicle is obviously a much larger financial strain than subscribing to Full Self-Driving for a month.
Of course, the previous Referral Program also offered a tangible benefit: $250 in credits you could use on Service, Supercharging, or anything in the Tesla Shop. It truly could pay for someone’s travel for a year. It recently bought me a new backpack and a T-shirt.
However, this new program is much more attainable for those who do not have a massive online presence of a slew of friends in the Tesla community who will use the code and max out subscriptions for vehicle purchases.
Woke up to maxed out Referrals! Thank you guys, that’s awesome!
Share your referral link below so others can use it! https://t.co/kesbwTcoTV
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 30, 2026
The Full Self-Driving suite will now be the keystone of the Referral Program, which makes it more inclusive and more fun for everyone with an awesome benefit.
It also gives the impression that Tesla is truly focused on FSD subscriptions, something that saw a tremendous increase in volume in Q3, as 75 percent of deliveries for the quarter came with an FSD subscription attached.
Full Self-Driving data is so instrumental to the suite’s improvement that this kind of program benefits Tesla as much as it does the consumer.
Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit
SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock
