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SpaceX’s packed 2022 launch manifest ready to blow 2021 out of the water

(Richard Angle)

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On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.

Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.

However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.

That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.

In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.

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The 16th of 17 dedicated Starlink launches completed in 2021. (SpaceX)

Starlink

In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.

That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.

DART, November 24th. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
Starlink 4-3, December 2nd. (Richard Angle)
IXPE, December 9th. (NASA & Richard Angle)

Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).

Starlink 4-4, December 18th. (SpaceX)
Turksat 5B, December 19th. (Richard Angle)
CRS-24, December 21st. (Richard Angle)

Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.

Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.

Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla to launch in India in July with vehicles already arriving: report

Tesla is finally making serious moves toward launching in India, with showrooms opening in July, a report claims.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is finally bringing its business to India, a new report indicates, as the company is already shipping vehicles from China to the market where it has attempted to launch business for several years.

We first heard of Tesla planning to launch in India about a decade ago when CEO Elon Musk and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met in California at the Fremont Factory in 2015.

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Over the years, the two have hinted that the automaker would eventually land in India, but issues with import duties have delayed Tesla’s attempts.

Now, there seems to be some serious movement in Tesla’s plans, as it has reportedly shipped the first batch of vehicles from China to India, according to Bloomberg. The outlet says these are Model Y Rear-Wheel-Drive configurations.

Tesla is also planning for other parts of the launch, like preparing for Supercharging, aftermarket parts and merchandise purchasing for vehicle owners and fans, and spare parts from various regions, including the United States, China, and the Netherlands.

The company and the Indian government must have come to some sort of agreement that was catalyzed by Musk and Modi’s meeting in February in the U.S.

It is a long time coming, and it now gives Tesla access to an incredibly vast market in India, where a very small percentage of 2024’s total automotive sales were comprised of electric vehicles.

Another interesting tidbit about the launch is that the vehicles will be coming from Gigafactory Shanghai and not Gigafactory Berlin as previously thought. Reports from other publications, like Reuters, indicated the German production facility was building vehicles for India early last year.

India has a very strict policy that favors domestic manufacturing, which is why the import duties were so high for foreign automakers looking to bring their product into the market. These duties were reduced from 110 percent to just 15 percent, as long as companies aim to invest in India and meet certain investment and sales targets.

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SpaceX and Elon Musk share insights on Starship Ship 36’s RUD

Starship Ship 36 experienced a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly during a static fire attempt.

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Elon Musk and SpaceX provided an explanation for the Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly (RUD) of Starship Ship 36 on Wednesday. As per Musk, preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) in the vehicle’s payload bay failed below its proof pressure.

On Wednesday evening, Ship 36 experienced a RUD during a static fire attempt. Videos of the incident that were shared online showed Starship Ship 36 exploding into a massive fireball at its launchpad in Starbase, Texas. Images taken in the aftermath of the explosion showed significant damage to the plumbing in the area. The site’s pad structure was also destroyed.

Elon Musk shared some information immediately after the incident. In a response to a post from space enthusiast @Erdayastronaut, Musk stated that “Preliminary data suggests that a nitrogen COPV in the payload bay failed below its proof pressure.”

Musk also noted that, “If further investigation confirms that this is what happened, it is the first time ever for this design.”

SpaceX provided more insight into the incident in a post on its official website.

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“After completing a single-engine static fire earlier this week, the vehicle was in the process of loading cryogenic propellant for a six-engine static fire when a sudden energetic event resulted in the complete loss of Starship and damage to the immediate area surrounding the stand.

“The explosion ignited several fires at the test site, which remains clear of personnel and will be assessed once it has been determined to be safe to approach. Individuals should not attempt to approach the area while safing operations continue,” SpaceX wrote in its post.

SpaceX highlighted that despite Starship Ship 36’s RUD, the incident will not result in any hazards to the surrounding communities in the Rio Grande Valley. And in a post on X, SpaceX also confirmed that everyone in the Starship team was safe and accounted for after Ship 36’s explosion.

While Ship 36’s RUD is a speed bump for the Starship program, SpaceX is a company that is known to grow stronger with every adversity. Thus, it would not be surprising if SpaceX implemented numerous improvements to Starship after this incident–improvements that would make the vehicle more reliable and safer than before.

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Tesla has started rolling out initial round of Robotaxi invites

Tesla is putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.

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Credit: @BLKMDL3/X

Tesla has started rolling out an initial round of invites for its upcoming Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas.

Screenshots shared by several Tesla community members who received the invites provided a quick overview of the autonomous ride-hailing service.

As noted in a techAU report, the initial round of Robotaxi service invites has gone to longtime Tesla owners and active members of the EV community. These include owners such as @SawyerMerritt, @BLKMDL3, @WholeMarsBlog, @ItsKimJava, and @HerbertOng, all of whom shared screenshots of the invitation that Tesla has sent about the upcoming service.

You’re Invited to Early Access of Tesla Robotaxi!

The Future is Now! You’re invited to Early Access of Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin, TX!

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As an Early Access rider, you can be among the first to use our new Robotaxi App and experience an autonomous ride within our geofenced area in Austin. Through this exclusive preview, you’ll have the opportunity to provide valuable feedback on our Robotaxi service.

Based on Tesla’s message, it appears that participation in the service would be strictly invite-only for now. Participants must also download Tesla’s dedicated Robotaxi App to hail a ride. Rides can also be requested and initiated to and from any location within a geofenced area of Austin.

The robotaxi service will be available from 6:00 AM to 12:00 AM, seven days a week, though these hours may change depending on factors such as inclement weather. Interestingly enough, Tesla is inviting the first participants of the Robotaxi program to share photos and videos of their experience with the service.

While the vehicles themselves are autonomous and would operate without human input, the Robotaxis would still be accompanied by a Tesla staff member to monitor the vehicle. This strategy suggests that Tesla is really putting safety above all in its initial Robotaxi rollout.

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