News
SpaceX on track to launch four rockets next month despite Falcon Heavy delays
Despite the intense focus on SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch attempt and the testing preceding it, SpaceX is still a functioning business, and that business lies in launching payloads into Earth orbit. While it appears that January is unlikely to see any additional SpaceX launches, particularly Falcon Heavy, the launch company’s February manifest appears to be rapidly firming up.
Perhaps most significantly, two geostationary communications satellites completed their long journeys to Cape Canaveral, Florida within the last week or so, and a third payload on the West Coast is presumed to be at Vandenberg Air Force Base, all preparing for February launches. Meanwhile, although it is unclear how close Falcon Heavy is to launching, a date in mid to late February appears realistic at this point. As such, SpaceX has at least three and maybe four missions concretely planned for February – concrete in the sense that three of them were given specific launch dates within the last week.
Falcon Heavy is now targeting Friday, January 19 for its first static fire test. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)
A return to stride
Following a halcyon year of 18 launches, SpaceX appears to be ready to tackle its manifest headfirst after a relatively relaxed start to 2018. January saw a single SpaceX launch, Zuma, as well as the ongoing series of tests of the first completed Falcon Heavy launch vehicle, although the big rocket’s launch date has likely already slipped into February at the earliest. Still, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 workhorse rocket is rearing for additional launches, and options abound.
GovSat-1 (SES-16) – NET late January 2018
First on the docket is the launch of GovSat-1/SES-16, a public-private partnership between Luxembourg’s government and the renowned Lux.-based satellite manufacturer and operator, SES. Similar to Hispasat, GovSat-1 is a geostationary communications satellite weighing around 4000 kg that will be placed in a geostationary transfer orbit by Falcon 9. If it flies before Falcon Heavy, something I’d place at around 99% likely, the launch of PAZ will mark SpaceX’s first reused flight of 2018, with many, many more to come. This particular launch will use Core 1032 from the secretive NROL-76 mission back in May 2017. 1032 is an older booster, and thus a recovery attempt is unlikely – Block 3 Falcon 9s were never designed to be reused more than once or twice, especially not after toasty high-energy recoveries necessitated by geostationary launches.
-
- After launching NROL-76 in May 2017, B1032 returned to Landing Zone-1 for a successful landing. (SpaceX)
-
- SES and GovSats’ first partnered satellite, GovSat-1/SES-16. (SES)
PAZ – Starlink prototype co-passengers – NET February 10 2018, 6:52am PST
Up next, PAZ is a commercial imaging satellite designed to return high-resolution photos of Earth from a relatively low polar orbit of approximately 500 km. It’s believed that this mission will be launched aboard a flight-proven Falcon 9 booster, Core 1038, previously tasked with the launch of the small Formosat-5 imaging satellite in August 2017. The mission will be the second 2018 launch of a flight proven booster for SpaceX, following on the heels of GovSat-1. Perhaps more important than reuse (but secondary to the customer’s payload insertion), however, is the probable presence of two of SpaceX’s first prototype broadband satellites, a constellation now known to be called Starlink.
This will be a major achievement for SpaceX’s satellite constellation efforts, as the several hundred employees SpaceX has stationed in Washington State and outside of Hawthorne, CA will finally be able to operationally test the fruit of many months of hard but silent work. Given the presence of two satellites, it’s assumed that these test satellites, Microsat 2A and 2B, have been designed to test all of the main components SpaceX has been developing, particularly the optical (LASER) on orbit communications system. By allowing each satellite to communicate at incredibly high bandwidths with each other, SpaceX’s ultimate goal is to create a mesh network of connectivity covering the entire Earth.
As such, fingers crossed that SpaceX begins to discuss Starlink in more detail as 2018 progresses and PAZ and its Microsat co-passengers reach orbit in February. Sadly, although the combined payload is small and the planned orbit low, the twice-flight-proven booster may meet its ultimate fate in the Pacific Ocean – a recovery attempt is no longer guaranteed for older, reused Falcon 9s. However, while not officially confirmed, this launch could see the debut of SpaceX’s Western landing pad, currently known as SLC-4 West (SLC-4W). Rather than attempting recovery aboard the drone ship Just Read The Instructions, Falcon 9 1038 would instead flip around and return to a landing area less than a kilometer away from its VAFB launch pad. Expect official confirmation as the launch date approaches.
-
- The Spanish company Hisdesat’s PAZ imaging satellite. (Hisdesat)
-
- Falcon 9 1038 aboard Just Read The Instructions after the launch of Formosat-5. (SpaceX)
Hispasat 30W-6 (1F) – No Earlier Than (NET) mid-February 2018
Finally, Hispasat is a relatively hefty 6000 kg commercial communications satellite slated for launch aboard what is believed to be a new Falcon 9 rocket. With SpaceX aiming to place the satellite into a geostationary transfer orbit, this will almost certainly preclude any attempts at recovering the first stage – the booster will need to expend most of its fuel to accomplish the job, leaving no reserve to conduct landing burns at sea. Hispasat’s Falcon 9 will thus likely be the first new booster to be expended intentionally by SpaceX in 2018.
Spain's @Hispasat: 30W-6 telecom sat arrives at Cape Canaveral from builder @sslmda to prepare for Feb launch on @SpaceX Falcon 9. Sat carries Ku-, C- & Ka-band payload for Americas/trans-Atlantic. pic.twitter.com/Zfhi1cE5vx
— Peter B. de Selding (@pbdes) January 16, 2018
Another busy year?
If February is to be representative of SpaceX’s 2018 launch cadence, the year is going to be a crazy one for the rocket company. As of IAC 2017, Elon Musk showed an estimated 30 launches as the company’s goal this year, compared to 20 in 2017 (SpaceX was only two launches short of that). While Falcon Heavy may be understandably stealing the buzz and then some from those interested in spaceflight and technology, it is an absolute necessity that SpaceX remains a viable and reliable launch company if they hope to pursue more aspirational technologies like Falcon Heavy, BFR, and more. Here’s to hoping that SpaceX manages to make 2018 equally or even more successful than 2017.
Follow along live as launch photographer Tom Cross and I cover these exciting proceedings as close to live as possible.
Teslarati – Instagram – Twitter
Tom Cross – Instagram
Eric Ralph – Twitter
Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
