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SpaceX aces fourth Dragon launch in six months

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SpaceX has successfully completed its fourth Dragon spacecraft launch in six months, continuing an unprecedented cadence of missions carrying crew and cargo to and from the International Space Station (ISS).

Sporting a new booster (B1067) and Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft (likely C209), SpaceX’s two-stage, 70-meter (~230 ft) Falcon 9 rocket lifted off without issue on the first try. SpaceX’s second upgraded Cargo Dragon deployed from the rocket’s upper stage around 12 minutes after launch, verified the health of its 12 Draco maneuvering thrusters, and opened its nosecone to uncover its docking port and four more “bulkhead” thrusters.

Falcon 9 B1067 aced its first launch and landing. The booster will fly four astronauts next. (SpaceX)
CRS-22 Cargo Dragon 2 is now on its way to the ISS. (SpaceX)

Those four nose thrusters are used for the long-duration orbit raising and phasing burns needed to rendezvous and dock with the International Space Station and safely return to Earth one or several months later. SpaceX’s CRS-22 Cargo Dragon is currently scheduled to dock with the ISS around 5 am EDT (09:00 UTC) on Saturday, June 5th, delivering around 3.3 metric tons (~7300 lb) of cargo.

More than a third of that upmass is taken up by the first of six new ISS Roll-Out Solar Arrays (iROSAs) that will alleviate the gradual deterioration of the station’s current solar array power production capabilities. Ultimately, with all six installed, NASA says ISS power production will be boosted by 20-30%. All iROSAs will fly in pairs as unpressurized payloads in Cargo Dragon’s trunk. Individually, each 20-kilowatt ‘wing’ weighs 690 kg (~1520 lb).

(Richard Angle)
Ascent. (Richard Angle)

The next two pairs will fly on CRS-25 and CRS-26, both scheduled to launch in 2022. Of note, CRS-22 is SpaceX’s fourth Dragon launch in a little over six months – equivalent to completing more than 15% of all Dragon launches in less than 5% of the time since the spacecraft first flew. While unusual and partially brought on by secondary Commercial Crew provider Boeing’s extensive delays, SpaceX appears to be on track to maintain an average Dragon launch cadence not far off from this six-month peak.

In fact, as long as several missions remain on schedule, SpaceX could complete another four – or even five – Dragon launches around the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022. Up next, SpaceX is scheduled to reuse an upgraded Cargo Dragon for the first time as part of CRS-23 in August 2021. Inspiration4, Crew Dragon’s inaugural private launch, is expected to launch as early as September. Crew-3 will send four more NASA and ESA astronauts to the ISS as early as October, followed by CRS-24 in December. Finally, Axiom Space’s first four private astronauts will ride Dragon to the ISS as early as January 2021.

Altogether, SpaceX’s next mission to the ISS is on track to kick off five Dragon launches in five months, ultimately marking 12 Dragon launches in 24 months if things go according to plan.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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Elon Musk responds to Volvo’s latest LiDAR decision

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has responded to reports that Volvo is officially discontinuing the LiDAR sensor on two of its cars.

Volvo announced that it would officially scrap LiDAR systems on its EX90 and ES90 vehicles in various markets. In Norway, owners will get a €1,800 compensation for features that will never arrive due to this decision. There will be no option to remove the unit from vehicles, either.

The issue stems from Volvo’s supplier, Luminar, and its bankruptcy filing. Luminar will no longer be able to supply LiDAR units to Volvo for the EX90 and ES90, effectively axing any use the unit has on vehicles. Volvo will phase out the data collection processes via the LiDAR system, and it will not be utilized whatsoever.

Musk saw the story on X and responded, stating:

“I did try to warn them. Humans drive using neural nets and optical sensors. Same is true for robot cars.”

Musk has been publicly vocal about his disdain for LiDAR systems, once calling them “a fool’s errand,” as he has consistently kept the outlook that they are not needed for effective self-driving.

The typical example used as evidence for this by Musk is humans themselves: made with only eyes and memories, humans are capable of navigating a car by using what they can see and what they’ve personally experienced on the road.

Elon Musk argues lidar and radar make self driving cars more dangerous

“Same is true for robot cars,” Musk says, as Teslas have eight exterior cameras that help see everything surrounding the vehicle, and a neural network that analyzes behavior and tendencies with every mile driven.

Tesla is a vision-only self-driving company that ditched sensors and radar several years ago in favor of cameras. Behind this effort, the company has established a reputation for having one of the most robust self-driving platforms in the world.

Musk’s big bet with Tesla on its self-driving program’s strategy has widely paid off. Other companies continue to utilize things like LiDAR, radar, and sensors for effective self-driving, but Tesla has shown that there is more than one way to give consumers a strong and accurate driver assistance suite.

The real question is: who will be the first company to take Musk’s advice and attempt a self-driving platform based on cameras only, or even license FSD for themselves?

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