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SpaceX President updates schedule for Starship’s orbital launch debut
SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell says that the company now expects Starbase to be ready for Starship’s first orbital launch attempt as early as June or July, pushing the schedule back another month or two.
To accomplish that feat, SpaceX will need to more or less ace a wide range of challenging and unproven tests and pass a series of exhaustive bureaucratic reviews, significantly increasing the odds that Starship’s orbital launch debut is actually closer to 3-6 months away. While SpaceX could technically pull off a miracle or even attempt to launch hardware that has only been partially tested, even the most optimistic of hypothetical scenarios are still contingent upon things largely outside of the company’s control.
Will FAA or won’t FAA?
Both revolve around the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which – in SpaceX’s case – is responsible for completing a ‘programmatic environmental assessment’ (PEA) of orbital Starship launches out of Boca Chica, Texas and issuing a launch license for the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. In some ways, both tasks are unprecedented, but the bureaucratic processes involved are still largely the same as those SpaceX has successfully navigated over the last two decades.
First up, the FAA’s environmental review. Until very recently, the fate of Starbase’s PEA was almost completely indeterminable and could have gone any number of ways – most of which would not be favorable for SpaceX. However, just a few days ago and about a week after the FAA’s latest one-to-two-month PEA delay announcement, the agency updated an online dashboard to show that the fourth of five main PEA processes had been completed successfully. The most important part of the update is the implication that SpaceX and the FAA have now completed almost every aspect of the PEA that requires cooperation with other federal agencies and local stakeholders.
Only one more cooperative process – ensuring “Section 4(f)” compliance – still needs to be completed. Without delving into the details, there is no convincing evidence to suggest that that particular step will be a showstopper, though SpaceX might have to compromise on certain aspects of Starbase operations to complete it. Once Section 4(f) is behind them, the only thing standing between the FAA and SpaceX and a Final PEA is the completion and approval of all relevant paperwork. In other words, for the first time ever, the FAA’s targeted completion date – currently May 31st, 2022 – may actually be achievable.
Still, as the FAA itself loves to repeatedly point out, “the completion of the PEA will not guarantee that the FAA will issue a launch license – SpaceX’s application must also meet FAA safety, risk, and financial responsibility requirements.” Even if the PEA is perfect, SpaceX still has to secure an FAA launch license for the largest and most powerful rocket in history. It’s unclear if SpaceX and the FAA have already begun that painful back-and-forth or if some tedious fine print prevents it from starting before an environmental review is in place. Without knowing more, launch licensing could take anywhere from a few days to several months.
A series of tubes
Without the FAA’s launch license and environmental approval, any Starship SpaceX builds cannot legally launch from Starbase. On the other side of the coin, though, it’s just as true that the FAA’s nods of approval are worth about as much as the paper they’re written on without a rocket that’s ready to launch. In a perfect world, SpaceX would have a Starship and Super Heavy booster fully qualified, stacked, and sitting at Starbase’s orbital launch site when the FAA finally gives a green light. However, that’s not quite what SpaceX’s reality is today.
First Starship orbital flight will be with Raptor 2 engines, as they are much more capable & reliable. 230 ton or ~500k lb thrust at sea level.
We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test.— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 21, 2022
SpaceX has made a significant amount of progress in the last month and a half, but contrary to CEO Elon Musk’s hopes as of March 21st, the company will absolutely not be ready to attempt an orbital launch by the end of May. Nonetheless, Shotwell’s estimate of “June or July” may not be completely out of reach. Since Musk’s tweet, SpaceX finished assembling Super Heavy Booster 7, rolled the rocket to the launch site on March 31st, and completed several major tests in early April. However, during the last test, an apparent operator error significantly damaged a large part installed inside the booster, forcing SpaceX to return Super Heavy B7 to Starbase’s build site. After two and a half weeks of repairs, Booster 7 returned to the launch site on May 6th and completed another ‘cryoproof’ test, seemingly verifying that those quick repairs did the job.
Had Booster 7 not required repairs, it’s not impossible (but still hard) to imagine that SpaceX could have had a Super Heavy booster ready to launch by the end of May. Still, the static fire testing Booster 7 needs to complete is almost entirely unprecedented and could take months to complete. To date, SpaceX has never ignited more than six Raptors at once on a Starship prototype, while Super Heavy will likely need to complete multiple 33-engine tests before it can be safely considered ready for flight. Worse, there is no guarantee that SpaceX actually wants to fly Booster 7 after the damage it suffered. If Booster 8 carries the torch forward instead, Starship’s orbital launch debut could easily slip to late Q3 or Q4 2022.
Meanwhile, Super Heavy is only half of the rocket. When Musk tweeted his “hopefully May” estimate, SpaceX was nowhere close to finishing the Starship – Ship 24 – that is believed to have been assigned to the orbital launch debut. However, SpaceX finally accelerated Ship 24 assembly within the last few weeks and ultimately finished stacking the upgraded Starship on May 8th. A great deal of work remains to truly complete Ship 24, but SpaceX should be ready to send it to a test stand within a week or two. Even though the testing Ship 24 will need to complete has been done before by Ship 20, making its path forward less risky than Booster 7’s, Ship 24 will debut a number of major design changes and likely needs at least two months of testing to reach a basic level of flight readiness.
Last but not least, there’s the question of the orbital launch site (OLS) itself. Is the launch mount ready to survive a full Super Heavy static fire? Is the pad’s tank farm ready to fill Starship and Super Heavy with several thousand tons of flammable, explosive cryogenic propellant? If it’s a goal of the test flight, is the launch tower ready for a Super Heavy booster to attempt to land in its arms? While there are reasons to believe that the answer to some of those questions is “yes,” plenty of uncertainty remains and plenty of work is still incomplete.
Ultimately, Shotwell’s June goal is almost certainly unachievable. Late July, however, might be within the realm of possibility, but only in the unlikely event that all Booster 7 and Ship 24 testing is completed almost perfectly and without further delay. For the pragmatic reader, August or September is a safer bet. Thankfully, at least one thing is certain: activity at Starbase is about to get significantly more exciting.
News
Tesla Sweden faces new pressure in Sweden as Assa Abloy joins union action
The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites.
The labor standoff between Tesla and Sweden’s IF Metall union has widened again, this time pulling in Assa Abloy Industrial, a manufacturer of industrial doors and locks.
IF Metall announced a new sympathy strike halting all Assa Abloy services for Tesla, set to take effect November 4, according to Dagens Arbete (DA). The move is aimed at further pressuring Tesla into signing a collective agreement after nearly two years of ongoing labor conflict.
New strike targets Tesla’s industrial operations
The sympathy strike will block Assa Abloy’s 330 employees across six Swedish facilities from servicing or maintaining locks and gates used at Tesla Sweden’s sites. IF Metall hopes the measure will disrupt Tesla’s daily operations and highlight the growing solidarity among Swedish companies.
Assa Abloy becomes the latest in a line of firms drawn into the dispute, with the Swedish Mediation Institute now logging fourteen conflict notices since September. The escalation shows that unions and partner industries are aligning to support of IF Metall’s campaign to secure a collective bargaining deal, something Tesla has consistently resisted.
IF Metall says Tesla must understand Sweden’s labor model
IF Metall chair Marie Nilsson recently reiterated her call for Tesla Sweden to reconsider its stance on organized labor, noting that Sweden’s union system differs sharply from the more adversarial model in the United States.
“I can certainly understand that Elon Musk and Tesla are skeptical of the trade union movement,” Nilsson said. “They have experience with American unions that operate in a completely different environment and that have to be militant in a different way.”
Nilsson emphasized that Swedish unions function cooperatively and that signing a collective agreement locally does not commit Tesla to similar deals elsewhere. “Let’s give us a chance,” she added. “It is the practical system we have here to regulate the conditions.”
News
Elon Musk: Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any tech
The CEO noted that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time.”
Elon Musk has shared one of his most optimistic forecasts for Tesla’s self-driving rollout yet. As per the CEO, Tesla’s self-driving system could see the fastest technological adoption in history, thanks to the fleet’s capability to gain autonomous capabilities through a software update.
The CEO shared his forecast in a post on social media platform X.
Tesla’s aims to scale autonomy
Musk’s comment came as a response to industry watcher Sawyer Merritt, who posted a comparison between the geofence of Tesla’s Robotaxi network and Waymo’s service area. As can be seen in the graphic, Tesla’s Austin geofence has gotten noticeably larger compared to Waymo’s service area.
In his response, Musk stated that “Tesla autonomous driving might spread faster than any technology ever.” He also stated that “hardware foundations have been laid for such a long time,” as a software update could unlock full autonomy “for millions of pre-existing cars in a short period of time.”
Musk’s comment bodes well for Tesla’s Robotaxi ambitions, which seem to be finally in reach with the deployment of Unsupervised FSD in vehicle factories, as well as Austin and the Bay Area. For now, however, Tesla’s Austin Robotaxis and Bay Area ride-hailing vehicles are still operated with a safety monitor in the driver’s seat.
Tesla’s latest Austin expansion
Tesla recently expanded its Austin Robotaxi service area this week to 243 square miles, its largest yet and nearly triple the coverage from two months ago. The move outpaces Waymo’s local service footprint, which remains at around 90 square miles.
The expansion marks Tesla’s second major Austin update since August and emphasizes its push to dominate the autonomous ride-hailing landscape. With both Tesla and Waymo racing to prove scale and reliability, Musk’s confidence suggests the real contest may be about who can move fastest once the tech flips on across Tesla’s fleet. Once that happens, Tesla would effectively be able to win the self-driving race.
News
Tesla sends clear message to Waymo with latest Austin Robotaxi move
It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”
Tesla has sent a clear message to Waymo with its latest move to its Robotaxi program in Austin, Texas.
Tesla and Waymo are the two true leaders in autonomous ride-hailing to an extent. Tesla has what many believe is a lot of potential due to its prowess with the Supervised Full Self-Driving suite. It is also operating a driverless Robotaxi service in Austin with a “Safety Monitor” that sits in the passenger’s seat.
Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat
The two companies have been competing heavily in the market since they both launched driverless ride-hailing services in Austin this year: Waymo’s in March and Tesla’s in June.
One of the main drivers in the competition between the two is service area size, or the geofence in which the cars will operate without a driver. In August, the two were tied with a service area of about 90 square miles (233.099 sq. km).
Tesla then expanded to about 170 square miles (440.298 sq. km) on August 26, dwarfing Waymo’s service area and expanding to freeways. Tesla’s freeway operation of the Robotaxi suite requires the Safety Monitor to be in the driver’s seat for safety reasons.
On Tuesday evening, Tesla made another move that sent a clear message to Waymo, as it expanded once again, this time to 243 square miles (629.367 sq. km).
This is according to Robotracker:
Here’s a comparison of Tesla’s geofence in Austin vs. Waymo’s
Tesla’s now spans 243 square miles, almost three times the size of Waymo’s at 89 square miles https://t.co/OCAHQDQhzb pic.twitter.com/wq5bHQXCp4
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 29, 2025
It is the first expansion Tesla has made in Austin since the one on August 26. The company still operates in the Bay Area of California as well, referring to that program specifically as a “ride-hailing service.”
Yesterday, it expanded that service to the San Jose Mineta International Airport, something it has been working on for several months.
Waymo has its own set of distinct advantages over Tesla as well, as it operates in more cities and states than the EV maker. Waymo currently has its autonomous vehicle services in Phoenix, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta, Georgia.
Tesla plans to have half of the U.S. population with access to the Robotaxi platform by the end of the year.
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