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Renderings of SpaceX clawboat’s huge net upgrade is a taste of what’s to come
After several close-but-no-cigar attempts at snatching a Falcon 9 payload fairing out of the air, SpaceX’s iconic recovery vessel Mr Steven is currently laid up at the company’s newly-acquired Berth 240 dock space, roughly a week into the process of upgrading his arms to support a much larger net. CEO Elon Musk recently hinted that the boat’s net would be expanded by a factor of four, but what would such a dramatic growth look like?
To give a better idea of what to expect from Mr Steven’s arm and net upgrades, Teslarati’s Reese Wilson modeled and rendered the fairing recovery vessel with one such interpretation. The dimensions and aspect ratios may not be a mirror-image of the real-world Mr Steven, but the visual effect of the net upgrade is still fundamentally the same.
Mr Steven is currently laid up at Berth 240 in a sadly armless state. (Pauline Acalin)
With respect to these renders, the actual net growth is somewhat less than the full fourfold area upgrade mentioned by Musk in early June – the concept art’s net is closer to 2.5 or 3 times larger than Mr Steven’s original net. This slight inaccuracy may actually be serendipitous, as a true 4X net could be downright unwieldy without the addition of some sort of complex retraction mechanism, versus the simple but functional (and infinitely reliable) implementation of fixed steel arms at the current net’s scale.
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- A side-by-side comparison of Mr Steven before (top) and after (bottom) installation of a net with roughly 2.5X greater catching area. (Reese Wilson)
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- Incredibly, this artist rendering of a much larger net installed on Mr Steven was perhaps two or more times smaller than the solution now installed on the vessel. (Reese Wilson)
Dramatic modifications nevertheless are all but guaranteed, as Mr Steven appears to have had the entire arm apparatus – including the steel base attaching them to his cargo deck – completely removed and placed on the side of the dock, still less permanent than the apparent decision to plasma or torch cut each arm off of that base, one of which is visible dockside at Berth 240. It may be possible to re-weld those severed arms onto the base, but it’s arguably more likely that entirely new arms, an entirely new base, or both will be fabricated, and those larger arms will themselves require a much larger net.
Ultimately, the fairing recovery vessel has gotten as close as 50 meters to gently catching a parasailing rocket fairing minutes after launch, an extraordinarily tiny error compared to the broader scope of the task at hand. Upon separation from Falcon 9’s upper stage, each payload fairing half is routinely traveling at speeds of 1.5 to 2 kilometers per second and reach apogees anywhere from 100 to 130 kilometers, all while traveling the better part of a thousand miles (800 mi/1300 km for Iridium-6) to reach Mr Steven’s net. As such, “missing” by 50 meters is an extraordinary achievement.
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- A fairing floats gently into the welcoming embrace of Mr Steven’s upgrade net and arms. (Reese Wilson)
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- With any luck, viewers may get a live view of the vessel’s next recovery attempts. (Reese Wilson)
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- Mr Steven is currently undergoing arm surgery (upgrades) at SpaceX’s future BFR factory lot, known as Berth 240. (Elon Musk)
A fairing floats gently into the welcoming embrace of Mr Steven’s upgrade net and arms. (Reese Wilson)
With the vessel’s current net roughly 30 meters or 100 feet square (Mr Steven is 60m/200ft bow to stern), give or take 25%, a full fourfold upgrade would double each dimension, which could singlehandedly cut the error margin required for fairing recovery (currently 50 meters) by more than 50% if it remains square. If SpaceX finds a way to functionally achieve something close to a fourfold increase in area with a more rectangular aspect ratio (assuming that the fairing’s present error is more a matter of glideslope inaccuracy than properly pointing the half at Mr Steven), a rectangular net with a width ~50% and length ~300% larger – say 40 meters by 80 meters – would completely close the error gap between reliably missing and reliably catching Falcon fairings. To compare, a common football (soccer for our American readers) field is typically 70 meters by 100 meters.
Time will tell, and we’ll find out soon whether those arm and net upgrades can be available for SpaceX’s next California launch, currently scheduled on the morning of July 20th.
One half of SpaceX’s Iridium-6/GRACE-FO just moments before touchdown on the Pacific Ocean. (SpaceX)
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Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by consumers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
