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Renderings of SpaceX clawboat’s huge net upgrade is a taste of what’s to come
After several close-but-no-cigar attempts at snatching a Falcon 9 payload fairing out of the air, SpaceX’s iconic recovery vessel Mr Steven is currently laid up at the company’s newly-acquired Berth 240 dock space, roughly a week into the process of upgrading his arms to support a much larger net. CEO Elon Musk recently hinted that the boat’s net would be expanded by a factor of four, but what would such a dramatic growth look like?
To give a better idea of what to expect from Mr Steven’s arm and net upgrades, Teslarati’s Reese Wilson modeled and rendered the fairing recovery vessel with one such interpretation. The dimensions and aspect ratios may not be a mirror-image of the real-world Mr Steven, but the visual effect of the net upgrade is still fundamentally the same.
Mr Steven is currently laid up at Berth 240 in a sadly armless state. (Pauline Acalin)
With respect to these renders, the actual net growth is somewhat less than the full fourfold area upgrade mentioned by Musk in early June – the concept art’s net is closer to 2.5 or 3 times larger than Mr Steven’s original net. This slight inaccuracy may actually be serendipitous, as a true 4X net could be downright unwieldy without the addition of some sort of complex retraction mechanism, versus the simple but functional (and infinitely reliable) implementation of fixed steel arms at the current net’s scale.
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- A side-by-side comparison of Mr Steven before (top) and after (bottom) installation of a net with roughly 2.5X greater catching area. (Reese Wilson)
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- Incredibly, this artist rendering of a much larger net installed on Mr Steven was perhaps two or more times smaller than the solution now installed on the vessel. (Reese Wilson)
Dramatic modifications nevertheless are all but guaranteed, as Mr Steven appears to have had the entire arm apparatus – including the steel base attaching them to his cargo deck – completely removed and placed on the side of the dock, still less permanent than the apparent decision to plasma or torch cut each arm off of that base, one of which is visible dockside at Berth 240. It may be possible to re-weld those severed arms onto the base, but it’s arguably more likely that entirely new arms, an entirely new base, or both will be fabricated, and those larger arms will themselves require a much larger net.
Ultimately, the fairing recovery vessel has gotten as close as 50 meters to gently catching a parasailing rocket fairing minutes after launch, an extraordinarily tiny error compared to the broader scope of the task at hand. Upon separation from Falcon 9’s upper stage, each payload fairing half is routinely traveling at speeds of 1.5 to 2 kilometers per second and reach apogees anywhere from 100 to 130 kilometers, all while traveling the better part of a thousand miles (800 mi/1300 km for Iridium-6) to reach Mr Steven’s net. As such, “missing” by 50 meters is an extraordinary achievement.
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- A fairing floats gently into the welcoming embrace of Mr Steven’s upgrade net and arms. (Reese Wilson)
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- With any luck, viewers may get a live view of the vessel’s next recovery attempts. (Reese Wilson)
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- Mr Steven is currently undergoing arm surgery (upgrades) at SpaceX’s future BFR factory lot, known as Berth 240. (Elon Musk)
A fairing floats gently into the welcoming embrace of Mr Steven’s upgrade net and arms. (Reese Wilson)
With the vessel’s current net roughly 30 meters or 100 feet square (Mr Steven is 60m/200ft bow to stern), give or take 25%, a full fourfold upgrade would double each dimension, which could singlehandedly cut the error margin required for fairing recovery (currently 50 meters) by more than 50% if it remains square. If SpaceX finds a way to functionally achieve something close to a fourfold increase in area with a more rectangular aspect ratio (assuming that the fairing’s present error is more a matter of glideslope inaccuracy than properly pointing the half at Mr Steven), a rectangular net with a width ~50% and length ~300% larger – say 40 meters by 80 meters – would completely close the error gap between reliably missing and reliably catching Falcon fairings. To compare, a common football (soccer for our American readers) field is typically 70 meters by 100 meters.
Time will tell, and we’ll find out soon whether those arm and net upgrades can be available for SpaceX’s next California launch, currently scheduled on the morning of July 20th.
One half of SpaceX’s Iridium-6/GRACE-FO just moments before touchdown on the Pacific Ocean. (SpaceX)
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
