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SpaceX almost ready to launch NASA asteroid impact spacecraft

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Update: The NASA official quoted saying that the DART spacecraft had arrived at Vandenberg on September 27th appears to have been incorrect and may have accidentally confused the arrival of an “advance team” with the arrival of the spacecraft itself.

Science communicator and author David Brown was reportedly on-site on September 29th to watch as the DART spacecraft was carefully packaged for the journey from Maryland’s Johns Hopkins University to its California launch site, obviously making a VSFB arrival two days prior impossible. Nevertheless, now stowed inside an environmentally-controlled shipping container, DART should still arrive at Vandenberg within the next week or two.

Revealed as a side note during live coverage of the space agency’s successful Landsat-9 launch, NASA says that the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) spacecraft has arrived at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) ahead of a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch less than two months from now.

Weighing around 690 kg (~1500 lb) at liftoff, NASA confirmed that the DART spacecraft and its Italian-built LICIACube smallsat companion are on track to launch out of SpaceX’s VSFB SLC-4E pad on a Falcon 9 rocket no earlier than (NET) November 23rd, 2021. Carrying its small passenger, DART will then make a beeline for binary asteroid pair Didymos and Dimorphos. Respectively measuring around 800 and 170 meters across, DART will ultimately target the smaller of the pair and accelerate to an impact velocity of ~6.6 km/s (4 mi/s or Mach 19).

DART will then rely on a built-in telescope and closed-loop targeting software to home in on and smash into Dimorphos, ultimately using the tiny asteroid system as a sort of sandbox to test theories of asteroid redirection that might one day help humans prevent catastrophic impacts with Earth.

Originally targeted to launch in June 2021 when NASA awarded SpaceX the $69M launch contract (now up to $73M after two small changes) in April 2019, DART has slipped approximately five months in the 2.5 years since when a few minor technical issues arose late in development. Impressively, almost none of those delays appear to have been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which cannot be said for a number of other NASA, US military, and commercial satellites and launches.

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Set to cost a total of ~$250M including launch services, DART’s main purpose is to determine how exactly an asteroid behaves when impacted by a high-velocity spacecraft. Whereas depictions of asteroid “redirection” in popular science fiction tend to lean towards the “send an arsenal of nuclear bombs” approach, the reality is that bombing most asteroids and comets large enough to threaten the surface of Earth would add uncertainty more than it would mitigate the threat.

Given how little is actually known about the physical characteristics of asteroids, attacking one with a bomb could simply separate a killer asteroid into any number of smaller, still-deadly asteroids – now spread into a shotgun-like pattern of undetectable fragments instead of one large, visible object. Instead, most modern science on the matter now believes that the best route to redirection is a combination of early detection and a (relatively) low-energy impact. A bit like the concept of the butterfly effect, a relatively gentle impact (still akin to 2.5 tons of TNT with DART) years or decades in advance could drastically change the trajectory of the threatening asteroid or comet, causing it to miss Earth. DART won’t directly prevent an asteroid from impacting Earth but hitting the asteroid moon of a larger asteroid should effectively magnify the effect the tiny impact has on its orbital characteristics.

DART will also serve as a technology demonstration, debuting both satellite-class roll-out solar arrays and NASA’s self-developed NEXT-C electric propulsion system. With any luck, it will also help scientifically prove that humans could use a similar approach to save ourselves from a catastrophic space impact event years or decades from now.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk will give ‘every kid in America’ a SpaceX share in 2027

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”

SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.

It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.

Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.

Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:

There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk reminds everyone about Roadster’s true meaning

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Elon Musk addresses the crowd next to the new Tesla Roadster, which Tesla offers in Performance, Thrust and Rocket versions. (Image: Tesla/X)
Elon Musk addresses the crowd next to the new Tesla Roadster, which Tesla offers in Performance, Thrust and Rocket versions. (Image: Tesla/X)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to his social media platform X on Sunday to remind everyone that the Roadster’s true meaning is not about company growth or adding dollars to shareholders’ pockets. Sometimes, you just do things because you can.

Following the Roadster’s epic unveiling event last Thursday, skeptics and critics of the company or the project itself came out to say that the vehicle is a pointless project because it is not geared toward growing the company, delivering supreme margins for profitability, nor does it contribute to the big picture of Artificial/Super Intelligence.

But that’s just the thing: Roadster is not meant to be some shareholder dream; it’s meant to be a vehicle that people buy just because it is something awesome, unique, and the first of its kind.

Tesla Roadster: Three configs, one can fly, 0-60 in 0.8 seconds

Musk had to remind those who are skeptical about the Roadster’s importance to the company mission that while it is not a major contributor to Tesla’s long-term goals, it is something that is being built just because it can be:

“Optimus and Cybercab will be the vast majority of Tesla’s value. The only things that will scale to incredible size (K2 and beyond) economically are super intelligence, robots, solar power, and mass to space. And, of course, if you have the first two, the rest will follow. But Roadster is super cool, so we’re doing it anyway.”

Musk has said on many occasions that Optimus would be the project that would make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value in the coming years.

Robotics will be a major focus of Tesla over the coming years, especially as Musk believes Optimus will enable work to be optional for humans and will enable what he calls “High Universal Income.”

Cybercab will be a passive income opportunity for owners, Musk and Tesla have said for a very long time, as a fleet of self-driving vehicles will operate within a ride-hailing Robotaxi service that won’t require a human driver to be present.

Tesla investors are more than enthusiastic about the company’s future projects, at least from a general consensus perspective. However, it is important to note that the Roadster is a fun and cool project that pushes the boundaries of what people thought was possible for an automobile.

What we saw last week was the first true example of a flying car, and despite the backlash about how it might not contribute to Tesla’s grand ambitions, it’s okay to have fun sometimes, too.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching

SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger

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SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.

The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures

All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.

If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.

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