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SpaceX almost ready to launch NASA asteroid impact spacecraft
Update: The NASA official quoted saying that the DART spacecraft had arrived at Vandenberg on September 27th appears to have been incorrect and may have accidentally confused the arrival of an “advance team” with the arrival of the spacecraft itself.
Science communicator and author David Brown was reportedly on-site on September 29th to watch as the DART spacecraft was carefully packaged for the journey from Maryland’s Johns Hopkins University to its California launch site, obviously making a VSFB arrival two days prior impossible. Nevertheless, now stowed inside an environmentally-controlled shipping container, DART should still arrive at Vandenberg within the next week or two.
Revealed as a side note during live coverage of the space agency’s successful Landsat-9 launch, NASA says that the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) spacecraft has arrived at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) ahead of a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch less than two months from now.
Weighing around 690 kg (~1500 lb) at liftoff, NASA confirmed that the DART spacecraft and its Italian-built LICIACube smallsat companion are on track to launch out of SpaceX’s VSFB SLC-4E pad on a Falcon 9 rocket no earlier than (NET) November 23rd, 2021. Carrying its small passenger, DART will then make a beeline for binary asteroid pair Didymos and Dimorphos. Respectively measuring around 800 and 170 meters across, DART will ultimately target the smaller of the pair and accelerate to an impact velocity of ~6.6 km/s (4 mi/s or Mach 19).
DART will then rely on a built-in telescope and closed-loop targeting software to home in on and smash into Dimorphos, ultimately using the tiny asteroid system as a sort of sandbox to test theories of asteroid redirection that might one day help humans prevent catastrophic impacts with Earth.
Originally targeted to launch in June 2021 when NASA awarded SpaceX the $69M launch contract (now up to $73M after two small changes) in April 2019, DART has slipped approximately five months in the 2.5 years since when a few minor technical issues arose late in development. Impressively, almost none of those delays appear to have been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which cannot be said for a number of other NASA, US military, and commercial satellites and launches.
Set to cost a total of ~$250M including launch services, DART’s main purpose is to determine how exactly an asteroid behaves when impacted by a high-velocity spacecraft. Whereas depictions of asteroid “redirection” in popular science fiction tend to lean towards the “send an arsenal of nuclear bombs” approach, the reality is that bombing most asteroids and comets large enough to threaten the surface of Earth would add uncertainty more than it would mitigate the threat.
Given how little is actually known about the physical characteristics of asteroids, attacking one with a bomb could simply separate a killer asteroid into any number of smaller, still-deadly asteroids – now spread into a shotgun-like pattern of undetectable fragments instead of one large, visible object. Instead, most modern science on the matter now believes that the best route to redirection is a combination of early detection and a (relatively) low-energy impact. A bit like the concept of the butterfly effect, a relatively gentle impact (still akin to 2.5 tons of TNT with DART) years or decades in advance could drastically change the trajectory of the threatening asteroid or comet, causing it to miss Earth. DART won’t directly prevent an asteroid from impacting Earth but hitting the asteroid moon of a larger asteroid should effectively magnify the effect the tiny impact has on its orbital characteristics.
DART will also serve as a technology demonstration, debuting both satellite-class roll-out solar arrays and NASA’s self-developed NEXT-C electric propulsion system. With any luck, it will also help scientifically prove that humans could use a similar approach to save ourselves from a catastrophic space impact event years or decades from now.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Update: 10/22 10:51a – Para 1 consumers changed to “customers” for accuracy.
Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by customers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla buyers are buying for Full Self-Driving and not for the car, data shows
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
