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SpaceX almost ready to launch NASA asteroid impact spacecraft
Update: The NASA official quoted saying that the DART spacecraft had arrived at Vandenberg on September 27th appears to have been incorrect and may have accidentally confused the arrival of an “advance team” with the arrival of the spacecraft itself.
Science communicator and author David Brown was reportedly on-site on September 29th to watch as the DART spacecraft was carefully packaged for the journey from Maryland’s Johns Hopkins University to its California launch site, obviously making a VSFB arrival two days prior impossible. Nevertheless, now stowed inside an environmentally-controlled shipping container, DART should still arrive at Vandenberg within the next week or two.
Revealed as a side note during live coverage of the space agency’s successful Landsat-9 launch, NASA says that the Double Asteroid Redirect Test (DART) spacecraft has arrived at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) ahead of a SpaceX Falcon 9 launch less than two months from now.
Weighing around 690 kg (~1500 lb) at liftoff, NASA confirmed that the DART spacecraft and its Italian-built LICIACube smallsat companion are on track to launch out of SpaceX’s VSFB SLC-4E pad on a Falcon 9 rocket no earlier than (NET) November 23rd, 2021. Carrying its small passenger, DART will then make a beeline for binary asteroid pair Didymos and Dimorphos. Respectively measuring around 800 and 170 meters across, DART will ultimately target the smaller of the pair and accelerate to an impact velocity of ~6.6 km/s (4 mi/s or Mach 19).
DART will then rely on a built-in telescope and closed-loop targeting software to home in on and smash into Dimorphos, ultimately using the tiny asteroid system as a sort of sandbox to test theories of asteroid redirection that might one day help humans prevent catastrophic impacts with Earth.
Originally targeted to launch in June 2021 when NASA awarded SpaceX the $69M launch contract (now up to $73M after two small changes) in April 2019, DART has slipped approximately five months in the 2.5 years since when a few minor technical issues arose late in development. Impressively, almost none of those delays appear to have been caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which cannot be said for a number of other NASA, US military, and commercial satellites and launches.
Set to cost a total of ~$250M including launch services, DART’s main purpose is to determine how exactly an asteroid behaves when impacted by a high-velocity spacecraft. Whereas depictions of asteroid “redirection” in popular science fiction tend to lean towards the “send an arsenal of nuclear bombs” approach, the reality is that bombing most asteroids and comets large enough to threaten the surface of Earth would add uncertainty more than it would mitigate the threat.
Given how little is actually known about the physical characteristics of asteroids, attacking one with a bomb could simply separate a killer asteroid into any number of smaller, still-deadly asteroids – now spread into a shotgun-like pattern of undetectable fragments instead of one large, visible object. Instead, most modern science on the matter now believes that the best route to redirection is a combination of early detection and a (relatively) low-energy impact. A bit like the concept of the butterfly effect, a relatively gentle impact (still akin to 2.5 tons of TNT with DART) years or decades in advance could drastically change the trajectory of the threatening asteroid or comet, causing it to miss Earth. DART won’t directly prevent an asteroid from impacting Earth but hitting the asteroid moon of a larger asteroid should effectively magnify the effect the tiny impact has on its orbital characteristics.
DART will also serve as a technology demonstration, debuting both satellite-class roll-out solar arrays and NASA’s self-developed NEXT-C electric propulsion system. With any luck, it will also help scientifically prove that humans could use a similar approach to save ourselves from a catastrophic space impact event years or decades from now.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk shared an incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab’s potential efficiency, as the company has hinted in the past that it could be one of the most affordable vehicles to operate from a per-mile basis.
ARK Invest released a report recently that shed some light on the potential incremental cost per mile of various Robotaxis that will be available on the market in the coming years.
The Cybercab, which is detailed for the year 2030, has an exceptionally low cost of operation, which is something Tesla revealed when it unveiled the vehicle a year and a half ago at the “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles.
Musk said on numerous occasions that Tesla plans to hit the $0.20 cents per mile mark with the Cybercab, describing a “clear path” to achieving that figure and emphasizing it is the “full considered” cost, which would include energy, maintenance, cleaning, depreciation, and insurance.
Probably true
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 22, 2026
ARK’s report showed that the Cybercab would be roughly half the cost of the Waymo 6th Gen Robotaxi in 2030, as that would come in at around $0.40 per mile all in. Cybercab, at scale, would be at $0.20.
Credit: ARK Invest
This would be a dramatic decrease in the cost of operation for Tesla, and the savings would then be passed on to customers who choose to utilize the ride-sharing service for their own transportation needs.
The U.S. average cost of new vehicle ownership is about $0.77 per mile, according to AAA. Meanwhile, Uber and Lyft rideshares often cost between $1 and $4 per mile, while Waymo can cost between $0.60 and $1 or more per mile, according to some estimates.
Tesla’s engineering has been the true driver of these cost efficiencies, and its focus on creating a vehicle that is as cost-effective to operate as possible is truly going to pay off as the vehicle begins to scale. Tesla wants to get the Cybercab to about 5.5-6 miles per kWh, which has been discussed with prototypes.
Additionally, fewer parts due to the umboxed manufacturing process, a lower initial cost, and eliminating the need to pay humans for their labor would also contribute to a cheaper operational cost overall. While aspirational, all of the ingredients for this to be a real goal are there.
It may take some time as Tesla needs to hammer the manufacturing processes, and Musk has said there will be growing pains early. This week, he said regarding the early production efforts:
“…initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast.”
Elon Musk
Elon Musk to attend 2026 World Economic Forum at Davos
The Tesla CEO was confirmed as a last-minute speaker for a session with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.
Elon Musk is poised to attend the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos. The Tesla CEO was confirmed as a last-minute speaker for a session with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, signaling a thaw in Musk’s long-strained relationship with the event.
A late addition
Organizers of the World Economic Forum confirmed that Elon Musk was added shortly before the event to a Thursday afternoon session, where he was scheduled to speak with Fink, as noted in a Bloomberg News report. Musk’s upcoming appearance marks Musk’s first participation in the forum, which annually draws political leaders, business executives, and global media to Davos, Switzerland.
Musk’s attendance represents a departure from his past stance toward the event. He had been invited in prior years but declined to attend, including in 2024. His upcoming appearance followed remarks from his political ally, Donald Trump, who addressed the forum earlier in the week with a wide-ranging speech.
A previously strained relationship
Musk had frequently criticized the World Economic Forum in the past, describing it as elitist and questioning its influence. In earlier posts, he characterized the gathering as “boring” and accused it of functioning like an unelected global authority. Those remarks contributed to a long-running distance between Musk and WEF organizers.
The forum previously said Musk had not been invited since 2015, though that position has since shifted. Organizers indicated last year that Musk was welcome amid heightened interest in his political and business activities, including his involvement in the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk later stepped away from that role.
Despite his friction with the World Economic Forum, Musk has remained central to several global events, from SpaceX’s provision of satellite internet services in geopolitically sensitive regions through Starlink to the growing use of xAI’s Grok in U.S. government applications.
Tesla Earnings Call: Top 5 questions investors are asking
Elon Musk shares incredible detail about Tesla Cybercab efficiency
