News
SpaceX Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launch debut will carry a surprise payload
SpaceX has plans to include a surprise payload aboard Crew Dragon’s inaugural NASA astronaut launch, scheduled to lift off as soon as May 27th.
Per a NASA update published on May 13th, SpaceX and the space agency remain on track for what will arguably be the company’s single most important mission since its founding in 2002. Over the last 6-9 years, depending on how one counts, SpaceX and NASA have worked relentlessly to develop the next-generation Crew Dragon spacecraft, a dramatically different variant of the extensively flown Cargo Dragon (Dragon 1).
Although the spacecraft’s next launch will be both its and SpaceX’s first crewed launch ever, Crew Dragon has already completed two successful abort tests in 2015 and 2020, as well as a flawless orbital launch debut in March 2019. Just shy of 16 months and no shortage of technical hurdles since that uncrewed orbital debut, the third Crew Dragon spacecraft completed by SpaceX (capsule C206) and a brand new Falcon 9 rocket are ready to make history. Now, on top of the many historic milestones attached to Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission, NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley will be joined by a mosaic of Earth created by tens or even hundreds of thousands of students – both young and old – from around the world.
As of May 15th, per NASA’s latest blog post updates, SpaceX’s plethora of Crew Dragon Demo-2 hardware appears to be just shy of 100% ready for flight, at least from a technical perspective. As of May 12th, NASA and SpaceX officially cleared Crew Dragon’s interior and both astronauts’ space suits for flight, effectively closing out the crew capsule. That reusable Crew Dragon capsule was attached atop an expendable trunk section – responsible for providing power with a solar array and thermal management with radiators – around May 1st.
Meanwhile, a brand new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster – B1058 – and expendable upper stage are just shy of ready to go inside SpaceX’s main Launch Complex 39A (Pad 39A) hangar. Both were shipped from California to Florida only after both their Merlin engines and each integrated stage completed static fire acceptance tests in McGregor, Texas. As of April 1st, they appeared to be just shy of fully integrated, with B1058 missing only its titanium grid fins (and possibly landing legs).
Now T-12 days to launch, SpaceX could attach the spacecraft to that Falcon 9 rocket at any moment – if it hasn’t already. Before the rocket is fully ready for launch, SpaceX will need to perform a routine wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test at Pad 39A – partially unique for Crew Dragon because the spacecraft attached during them. Given that Demo-2 is far from a normal SpaceX launch, Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 could roll out for that critical preflight test at any moment.
NASA has assigned astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to fly Crew Dragon’s inaugural crewed mission to the International Space Station (ISS) and both astronauts have been training more or less 24/7 for the last 12-18 months, as well as advising SpaceX on Crew Dragon’s design. Now, according to SpaceX, those astronauts will be joined by a mosaic image comprised of thousands of photos uploaded by students around the world, ranging from kindergarten to graduate school and more.
Deemed “Class of 2020”, the project is meant to celebrate the class of 2020 – anyone and everyone set to graduate this year. Although unmentioned, the celebration comes at a time when the coronavirus pandemic will almost certainly preclude or dramatically curtail (for good reason) large public gatherings for the sake of public health, disrupting or fully canceling graduation ceremonies around the world. SpaceX says that photos submitted by students will be added to a mosaic of Earth and “will be printed and flown aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft during its upcoming mission to the International Space Station with NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley on board.”
While it won’t replace the events themselves, having a photo physically sent to space certainly won’t hurt for tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or maybe even millions of students around the world. If you are a student or know one, you can submit your photo at SpaceX.com/ClassOf2020 before the end of May 20th.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
