

News
SpaceX rocket booster heads west for first California launch in more than a year
For the first time in more than 16 months, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket booster has been spotted heading west towards the company’s California pad, a sure sign that the next West Coast launch is just over the horizon.
First spotted in West Texas on August 20th, the Falcon 9 booster – wrapped in a class black plastic cocoon – was captured a second time three days later between Arizona and California. The rocket wrapped up the ~2600 kilometer (~1600 mi) journey from SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas development and test facilities early on August 24th, arriving at the company’s Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) Space Launch Complex 4 (SLC-4) facilities.
At least according to publicly-available launch manifests, the unknown Falcon 9 booster will be spending a fair bit of time in SpaceX’s SLC-4E hangar before its first Californian launch. Still, considering that many misinterpreted a year-old regulatory document as confirmation of SpaceX’s permanent withdrawal from VAFB just earlier this month, a surprise booster arrival is an encouraging sign.
As of now, SpaceX has two or three possible West Coast missions scheduled in the last few months of 2020, but there’s a strong chance that they’ll suffer delays as they near their tentative launch dates. Up first is the joint NASA-ESA Sentinel 6A (Sentinel 6 Michael Freilich, Jason-CS A) ocean topography satellite, one of two new spacecraft meant to continue work done by the Jason-3 spacecraft (launched by SpaceX in 2016). According to a joint review completed on June 25th and referenced in an official document (PDF), SpaceX and NASA are working towards the first Sentinel 6A launch attempt no earlier than (NET) November 10th, 2020.
NASA awarded SpaceX the $97 million launch contract in 2017, all but guaranteeing that Sentinel 6A will fly on a brand new Falcon 9 booster. The fact that the booster spotted in transport over the last week was never seen East of Texas strongly implies that it’s a new Falcon 9 SpaceX tested in McGregor before shipping back to California, in which case Sentinel 6A is almost certainly SpaceX’s next VAFB launch.
In the likely event that the booster that arrived at VAFB on August 24th is unflown, it’s probably Falcon 9 B1063. Germany’s SARah-1 radar imaging satellite is possibly the only other West Coast launch on SpaceX’s manifest that could warrant sending a new booster to California, but recent signs point towards that ~2200 kg (4850 lb) spacecraft launching in Q1 2021 (a delay from Q4 2020) as part of a dedicated SpaceX rideshare mission.
Less likely, SARah-1 could have been manifested on SpaceX’s first dedicated rideshare mission, scheduled to launch in December 2020. Either way, as fairly complex and expensive one-off science spacecraft, both SARah-1 and Sentinel 6A are liable to slip right from their current launch targets, meaning that Falcon 9 B1063 will likely spend at least 2-3 months in storage between now and the start of its first launch flow.


Regardless of the payload or the first stage launching it, SpaceX shipped its former West Coast drone ship landing platform to Florida more than a year ago. Any Falcon 9 booster launching from California will thus have to be expended or land back on land at LZ-4.
While SpaceX and its mystery Falcon 9 booster wait for their next West Coast launch, the company will likely take advantage of the opportunity to familiarize an almost entirely new team of pad and launch engineers and technicians. After its June 2019 Radarsat Constellation Mission launch, SpaceX effectively mothballed its Vandenberg pad and either laid off or transferred the vast majority of employees specific to SLC-4. SpaceX began hiring to rebuild that team in early 2020.
Thanks to a major multi-launch US military contract SpaceX won just a few weeks ago, the company’s Vandenberg facilities are all but guaranteed to remain active – even if only intermittently so – for most of the 2020s.
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News
Tesla sells 3 million Model 3 since 2017, one in every 1.5 minutes
This translates to one Model 3 being sold every 1.5 minutes on average for the past eight years.

Tesla has announced that the Model 3 sedan has sold 3 million units since it started customer deliveries in 2017. As per the electric vehicle maker, this translates to one Model 3 being sold every 1.5 minutes on average for the past eight years.
Massive Milestone
Tesla China VP Grace Tao announced the Model 3’s milestone on Weibo, highlighting that the all-electric sedan has been a tried and tested vehicle that has earned accolades throughout its tenure. She also highlighted that in a recent test, Car and Driver gave the Model 3 a perfect score.
“Model 3 has become the choice of more than 3 million car owners worldwide, and has won the global pure electric sedan sales champion for seven consecutive years,” Tao wrote in her Weibo post.
She also invited everyone to try and test drive the Model 3 sedan, so they could experience the vehicle personally. “Everyone is welcome to come to the store to test drive and experience this global car and champion car,” the Tesla executive added.
Tesla’s Mainstream Bet
There was once a time when Tesla’s future relied on the Model 3’s success. When the Model 3 was unveiled, Tesla was still gaining its footing as a premium automaker that produces the Model S and Model X. The Model 3 was the company’s first mass-market car, and it was Tesla’s first foray into serious mass production. At the time, it was no exaggeration to state that Tesla’s survival depended on the Model 3.
The Model 3’s runaway success was a victory not just for Tesla but for the overall electric vehicle sector as a whole. Because the Model 3 was simply a great car, electric or otherwise, it was able to prove that there is serious demand for reasonably-priced mass market EVs. It was also able to pave the way for the Model Y, Tesla’s mass market all-electric crossover that ultimately became the world’s best-selling car in 2023 and 2024.
Investor's Corner
Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love
Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.
This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.
Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas
The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.
The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:
“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”
Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.
Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.
Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.
Elon Musk
Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo
Just days after Waymo responded to them, Tesla is preparing for a potentially massive expansion of the Robotaxi geofence.

Tesla is preparing to expand its Robotaxi geofence yet again, just days after Waymo responded to its initial broadening of the area.
Tesla launched its first expansion last week, less than a month after introducing Robotaxi rides in Austin.
The company opted for a very interesting shape for its geofence expansion, which was more of an indication that it could launch more rides in virtually any area of the city due to the new geofence it chose.
Waymo then responded to Tesla shortly after with an expansion of its own. After Tesla’s first expansion of its geofence, it had 42 square miles of Robotaxi-accessible travel region. This was larger than Waymo’s 37 square miles.
However, the Waymo expansion last week brought the company to a substantial 90 square miles of Austin:
Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
Tesla appears to be ready to respond. Drone operator and Gigafactory Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer spotted Tesla Robotaxi validation vehicles well west of downtown Austin in the area of Marble Falls, Texas.
This would significantly increase Tesla’s square mileage if it could manage to bring its geofence to that size:
🚨 We could see Tesla’s response to Waymo’s expansion in Austin very soon
Based on Tesla’s expansion last time, it’s safe to assume they can go to any area of Austin whenever they choose
It’s not a coincidence they chose, well, you know, the shape they did 🤣 https://t.co/xB92SQ1ntC
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 19, 2025
The two companies are not directly responding to one another with these expansions, but it appears that there is a significant amount of competition underway, which ultimately benefits the consumers.
Waymo has been operating in Texas since March from a fully public perspective, while Tesla is still slowly expanding its test size for the Robotaxi fleet on a nearly daily basis. Tesla launched Robotaxi rides to a handful of Early Access Program members on June 22.
Tesla is also expanding to other regions of the United States, particularly in Arizona and California. However, the Texas expansion is a priority currently, as it is the only region where Tesla has received approval to operate passenger rides in a driverless setting in the country.
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