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SpaceX's next Crew Dragon launch is delayed but that's actually good news

Crew Dragon will soon attempt to use its SuperDraco thrusters to escape from a Falcon 9 rocket traveling twice the speed of sound. (SpaceX)

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6 years ago

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NASA says that SpaceX’s next big Crew Dragon flight test has slipped a bit further into 2020, a counterintuitively positive sign that the human-rated spacecraft’s next launch is firmly scheduled for the first month of the next decade.

Known as Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test, SpaceX opted to include the mission in its Commercial Crew contract, a decision NASA chose to leave up to its providers. Boeing, for example, chose not to perform a real-world in-flight abort test of its Starliner spacecraft, instead relying on a pad abort test and digital modeling to determine the spacecraft’s capabilities. NASA allowed this flexibility because it believes – at least theoretically – that it should be possible to determine whether a spacecraft can perform the most challenging abort scenarios without actually doing full-fidelity flight tests.

Given that NASA chose to perform an extremely expensive full-fidelity in-flight abort test with its own Orion spacecraft just a few months ago, one can’t exactly say that the space agency has chosen to reap what it’s sown, but with any luck, the Starliner spacecraft will never have to perform such an abort and find out how close Boeing’s modeling is to reality.

It’s also worth noting that despite the fact SpaceX elected to perform an extra abort test that will likely destroy an entire Falcon 9 rocket, Crew Dragon development will cost NASA $2 billion (40%) less than Starliner, while each operational Crew Dragon launch will also cost some $250 million (39%) less than a comparable Starliner launch.

As of December 18th, NASA says that SpaceX’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test has slipped a week from January 4th to January 11th, 2020. Counterintuitively, that delay is actually an extremely encouraging sign that Crew Dragon’s next launch is quite firmly set for the first month of 2020. For reference, as NASA and SpaceX approached Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 orbital launch debut earlier this year, the mission was initially set for January 17th. Around three weeks later, NASA announced that Demo-1 had slipped to no earlier than (NET) “February”. Four weeks after that delay, NASA once again announced another delay to March 2nd, which would turn out to be the day that Crew Dragon really did reach orbit for the first time.

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On March 2nd, Crew Dragon lifted off atop Falcon 9 during DM-1, the spacecraft’s uncrewed orbital launch debut. (NASA)

On the other hand, IFA – Crew Dragon’s second launch – had its first firm launch date (January 4th) announced by NASA on December 6th, 2019. Less than two weeks later, NASA says that the launch date has slipped by exactly one week to January 11th, less than four weeks from today. It’s entirely possible that SpaceX’s IFA test will slip further into 2020 in the coming weeks, but compared to Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 mission, both NASA and SpaceX appear to be far more confident in the schedule for Crew Dragon’s second launch.

Regardless of when exactly it lifts off, Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort is going to be an extremely challenging test for the spacecraft. Designed to simulate a near-worst-case abort scenario during launch, SpaceX will essentially trick Dragon into believing that Falcon 9 has failed around a minute and a half after launch. At that point, the rocket and spacecraft will be traveling as fast as Mach 2.5 (860 m/s, 1900 mph) and experiencing what is known as Max Q, the point of peak aerodynamic stress (referring to heating, buffeting, pressure, and more).

At that exact point, Crew Dragon capsule C205 will ignite all eight of its SuperDraco abort engines, almost instantaneously producing 130,000 lbf (570 kN) of thrust to send the spacecraft almost a kilometer (0.5 mi) away from Falcon 9 in just a few seconds. If Crew Dragon survives the ordeal, it will quickly detach its trunk section, flip around to face its heat shield towards the ground, and ultimately deploy parachutes before gently landing in the Atlantic Ocean.

Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort test should look almost identical to this, except the fixed launch pad will be replaced by a Falcon 9 rocket traveling roughly twice the speed of sound.

SpaceX plans to recover and reuse the otherwise orbit-worthy capsule on a future mission, likely one of the company’s upcoming CRS2 space station resupply launches. Finally, if everything goes exactly as planned during the In-Flight Abort test and both NASA and SpaceX see no issues with the flown hardware or data the test produces, Crew Dragon Demo-2 – the spacecraft’s first astronaut launch – could potentially be ready for flight as early as February or March 2020.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analysts are expecting the stock to go Plaid Mode soon

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1 hour ago

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October 9, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Mania

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has had a few weeks of overwhelmingly bullish events, and it is inciting several analysts to change their price targets as they expect the stock to potentially go Plaid Mode in the near future.

Over the past week, Tesla has not only posted record deliveries for a single quarter, but it has also rolled out its most robust Full Self-Driving (Supervised) update in a year. The new version is more capable than ever before.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, these are not the only things moving the company’s overall consensus on Wall Street toward a more bullish tone. There are, in fact, several things that Tesla has in the works that are inciting stronger expectations from analysts in New York.

TD Cowen

TD Cowen increased its price target for Tesla shares from $374 to $509 and gave the stock a ‘Buy’ rating, based on several factors.

Initially, Tesla’s positive deliveries report for Q3 set a bullish tone, which TD Cowen objectively evaluated and recognized as a strong sign. Additionally, the company’s firm stance on ensuring CEO Elon Musk is paid is a positive, as it keeps him with Tesla for more time.

Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth

Musk, who achieved each of the tranches on his last pay package, could obtain the elusive title as the world’s first-ever trillionaire, granted he helps Tesla grow considerably over the next decade.

Stifel

Stifel also increased its price target on Tesla from $440 to $483, citing the improvements Tesla made with its Full Self-Driving suite.

The rollout of FSD v14.1 has been a major step forward for the company. Although it’s in its early stages, Musk has said there will be improved versions coming within the next two weeks.

Stifel raises Tesla price target by 9.8% over FSD, Robotaxi advancements

Analysts at the firm also believe the company has a chance to push an Unsupervised version of FSD by the end of the year, but this seems like it’s out of the question currently.

It broke down the company’s FSD suite as worth $213 per share, while Robotaxi and Optimus had a $140 per share and $29 per share analysis, respectively.

Stifel sees Tesla as a major player not only in the self-driving industry but also in AI as a whole, which is something Musk has truly pushed for this year.

UBS

While many firms believe the company is on its way to doing great things and that stock prices will rise from their current level of roughly $430, other firms see it differently.

UBS said it still holds its ‘Sell’ rating on Tesla shares, but it did increase its price target from $215 to $247.

It said this week in a note to investors that it adjusted higher because of the positive deliveries and its potential value with AI and autonomy. However, it also remains cautious on the stock, especially considering the risks in Q4, as nobody truly knows how deliveries will stack up.

In the last month, Tesla shares are up 24 percent.

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Tesla lands permission to test Full Self-Driving in new country

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2 hours ago

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October 9, 2025

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tesla showroom
(Credit: NicklasNilsso14)

Tesla has landed permission to begin testing its Full Self-Driving suite in a new country: Sweden.

Tesla has been working to expand its Full Self-Driving suite across the world. Currently, it is available in seven countries: the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, and China, where it is referred to as “City Autopilot.”

Capabilities of the Full Self-Driving suite differ in each region based on the approvals given to Tesla by regulatory agencies.

In Europe, Tesla has been attempting for a long time to launch FSD in various countries, but regulatory red tape has been prolonging the company’s ability to launch the suite.

However, Sweden appears to be ready to allow Tesla to test FSD in some passenger and public locations, according to the country’s Transport Agency.

On X, a Swedish Tesla owner named Alexander Kristensen, says he received direct confirmation from the Transport Agency that Tesla has “received permission to test automated vehicles.”

The full email said:

“Tesla received permission to test automated vehicles last week. This includes three vehicles and all state highways and expressways in Sweden.”

Tesla has already been working with the Swedish Transport Agency on the first steps of Full Self-Driving’s approval. The company and the Transport Agency spent two weeks assessing data gathered during a Formal Site Assessment Test, or SAT.

Based on the communication from the Transport Agency to Kristensen, it appears the company has passed the SAT and will now be able to perform its own testing within the market.

This approval seems similar to the approval Tesla received in U.S. states for Robotaxi operation. Nevada and Arizona have both given Tesla approval for Robotaxi testing, but passengers are not allowed in the vehicles quite yet.

Instead, company employees perform the testing, which is likely what will go on in Sweden until the Transport Agency gives the company a green light to roll FSD software out to customers.

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My Tesla did this on FSD (Supervised) v14.1 and the internet went crazy

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2 hours ago

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October 9, 2025

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My Tesla did something on Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.1, and it garnered quite the response from the internet.

I received access to Tesla’s FSD v14.1 on Tuesday night, and by Wednesday, I was already using it and seeing all the progress the company had made from v13.2.9.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive

However, there was one thing that it did during the drive that I shared on our social media accounts, and it really got a lot of interesting reactions from people from all corners of the world.

I’ll give some background about the situation: I was driving on Main Street in Dallastown, PA, and the route was about to take me left onto Pleasant Avenue. It is a tight and usually very congested intersection; Main Street is a popular route for many construction vehicles and even some tractor-trailers.

It is a pretty tight intersection for full-size trucks and larger passenger vehicles. It is not super tight for my Model Y, but it gets to feel congested at times, including with what happened yesterday.

The light when I approached the intersection was a green yield; there was also a solid green arrow at the beginning of my light cycle, but I had arrived after that had already turned into the green yield. Oncoming traffic had a green light.

My Model Y got out into the middle of the intersection, and the light turned yellow, then red. Most people, including myself, would have probably made the left turn after the light turned red since the car was already out in the intersection.

The Tesla, using FSD v14.1, did not. Instead, it chose to back up to the “Stop Here on Red” line, which is further back due to the tight turn the perpendicular traffic has:

As I mentioned, I would have probably taken the left turn. However, I believe the Tesla did not see the traffic that sat to the left, and because of this, it weighed the turn as a higher probability of an accident than if it were to just back up to the line.

If you look at these two screenshots from when the light was yellow and red, Tesla’s driver visualization does not have any idea what traffic is to the left on Pleasant Avenue:

I believe that, since FSD could not tell what traffic was down to the left, it chose to reverse.

People had some polarizing opinions on it:

As far as the legality of the move, it does not seem to be against Pennsylvania law to go through or choose to back up. I have seen many cars do both things over the course of my life of driving in this state, and neither has ever gotten anyone a ticket.

I think FSD just did what it felt was the safer option here.

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