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SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launches get a bit closer as hardware arrives in Florida
On September 18th, local Florida resident Andrew Stoltz happened to be at the exact right place and time to catch a new SpaceX Falcon 9 fairing on the last leg of its journey to Cape Canaveral.
Likely the payload fairing that will support one of three upcoming launches, this hardware at least partially symbolizes the imminent end of an almost unprecedented lull in launch activities, rivaled only by post-failure groundings in 2015 and 2016. Described earlier this month by SpaceX’s President and COO, the company’s rockets and launch sites are consistently ready and waiting on customer payloads for the first time ever.
Simultaneously, SpaceX is working to prepare its own long-term solution for similar customer-side lulls in launches, coming in the form of dozens upon dozens of internal Starlink satellite missions. Assuming every Starlink mission involves ~60 satellites and relies on Falcon 9, SpaceX will need to complete nearly 100 launches between now and 2024 and another ~100 by 2027, demanding an average of 2-4 launches per month.
SpaceX completed its last orbital launch on August 7th, placing the AMOS-17 communications satellite into a geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) on an exceedingly rare expendable Falcon 9. As of then, SpaceX’s next launch – an internal Starlink mission – was already expected no earlier than October and has since settled towards the end of the month. First reported by NASASpaceflight.com, the first Starlink v1.0 mission (AKA Starlink-1) is tentatively scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) October 17th, followed by Starlink-2 NET November 4th and Starlink-3 NET late-November.

Of note, there have been whispers in the last few days that SpaceX’s next launch is not, in fact, a Starlink mission. Reading between the lines, only two possible spacecraft – JCSAT-18/Kacific-1 or South Korea’s ANASIS – are next on SpaceX’s manifest, the former of which is scheduled to launch no earlier than November 11th and the latter of which does not yet have a firm date.
Given that SpaceX is wrapping up the redesign and requalification work needed for Starlink to graduate from “v0.9” to “v1.0” and mass-producing high-performance spacecraft at an utterly unprecedented rate, the company’s next few Starlink launches are certainly at high risk of delay. For now, it’s safe to assume that the next SpaceX launch is still scheduled sometime in October until additional information is available. However, if rumors of the next mission not being Starlink are true, SpaceX’s next launch could come as late as mid-November.

This would translate to a more than 90-day gap between launches for SpaceX, unprecedented for the company outside of Falcon 9’s two (of two) catastrophic failures. An in-flight failure during the June 2015 CRS-7 launch caused a delay of more than six months between launches, while Falcon 9’s on-pad Amos-6 anomaly grounded SpaceX for roughly 4.5 months. More likely than not, the 2-3 month lull is the consequence of an unprecedented lack of flight-ready customer satellites, as well as the not-quite-ready status of SpaceX’s own Starlink satellites.
Starlink thus wasn’t quite ready to fill the gap, but SpaceX wants that to change as soon as possible. President and COO Gwynne Shotwell revealed earlier this month that the company has up to 24 Starlink launches planned on top of its customer missions in 2020, the former of which would – on its own – handily defeat SpaceX’s current annual record of 21 launches. The plan is to mix in Starlink launches in such a way that SpaceX’s own launch needs create little to no disruption for the company’s paying customers.
For now, we’ll have to wait and see which upcoming mission the spotted Falcon fairing is meant to support. SpaceX has two flight-proven fairing halves after a successful second recovery last month, potentially meaning that the company could launch its first fully (or even just partially) flight-proven fairing as early as next month.
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Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility.
The Tesla Cybercab could very well be the safest taxi on the road when it is released and deployed for public use. This was, at least, hinted at by the intensive safety tests that Tesla seems to be putting the autonomous two-seater through at its Giga Texas crash test facility.
Intensive crash tests
As per recent images from longtime Giga Texas watcher and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla seems to be very busy crash testing Cybercab units. Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility just before the holidays.
Tegtmeyer’s aerial photos showed the prototypes clustered outside the factory’s testing building. Some uncovered Cybercabs showed notable damage and one even had its airbags engaged. With Cybercab production expected to start in about 130 days, it appears that Tesla is very busy ensuring that its autonomous two-seater ends up becoming the safest taxi on public roads.
Prioritizing safety
With no human driver controls, the Cybercab demands exceptional active and passive safety systems to protect occupants in any scenario. Considering Tesla’s reputation, it is then understandable that the company seems to be sparing no expense in ensuring that the Cybercab is as safe as possible.
Tesla’s focus on safety was recently highlighted when the Cybertruck achieved a Top Safety Pick+ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). This was a notable victory for the Cybertruck as critics have long claimed that the vehicle will be one of, if not the, most unsafe truck on the road due to its appearance. The vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating, if any, simply proved that Tesla never neglects to make its cars as safe as possible, and that definitely includes the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Monday that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) could launch in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as January 2026.
Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year.
Musk’s estimate
In a post on X, UAE-based political analyst Ahmed Sharif Al Amiri asked Musk when FSD would arrive in the country, quoting an earlier post where the CEO encouraged users to try out FSD for themselves. Musk responded directly to the analyst’s inquiry.
“Hopefully, next month,” Musk wrote. The exchange attracted a lot of attention, with numerous X users sharing their excitement at the idea of FSD being brought to a new country. FSD (Supervised), after all, would likely allow hands-off highway driving, urban navigation, and parking under driver oversight in traffic-heavy cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Musk’s comments about FSD’s arrival in the UAE were posted following his visit to the Middle Eastern country. Over the weekend, images were shared online of Musk meeting with UAE Defense Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. Musk also posted a supportive message about the country, posting “UAE rocks!” on X.
FSD recognition
FSD has been getting quite a lot of support from foreign media outlets. FSD (Supervised) earned high marks from Germany’s largest car magazine, Auto Bild, during a test in Berlin’s challenging urban environment. The demonstration highlighted the system’s ability to handle dense traffic, construction sites, pedestrian crossings, and narrow streets with smooth, confident decision-making.
Journalist Robin Hornig was particularly struck by FSD’s superior perception and tireless attention, stating: “Tesla FSD Supervised sees more than I do. It doesn’t get distracted and never gets tired. I like to think I’m a good driver, but I can’t match this system’s all-around vision. It’s at its best when both work together: my experience and the Tesla’s constant attention.” Only one intervention was needed when the system misread a route, showcasing its maturity while relying on vision-only sensors and over-the-air learning.
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Tesla quietly flexes FSD’s reliability amid Waymo blackout in San Francisco
“Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla highlighted its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system’s robustness this week by sharing dashcam footage of a vehicle in FSD navigating pitch-black San Francisco streets during the city’s widespread power outage.
While Waymo’s robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams, Tesla’s vision-only approach kept operating seamlessly without remote intervention. Elon Musk amplified the clip, highlighting the contrast between the two systems.
Tesla FSD handles total darkness
The @Tesla_AI account posted a video from a Model Y operating on FSD during San Francisco’s blackout. As could be seen in the video, streetlights, traffic signals, and surrounding illumination were completely out, but the vehicle drove confidently and cautiously, just like a proficient human driver.
Musk reposted the clip, adding context to reports of Waymo vehicles struggling in the same conditions. “Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.
Musk and the Tesla AI team’s posts highlight the idea that FSD operates a lot like any experienced human driver. Since the system does not rely on a variety of sensors and a complicated symphony of factors, vehicles could technically navigate challenging circumstances as they emerge. This definitely seemed to be the case in San Francisco.
Waymo’s blackout struggles
Waymo faced scrutiny after multiple self-driving Jaguar I-PACE taxis stopped functioning during the blackout, blocking lanes, causing traffic jams, and requiring manual retrieval. Videos shared during the power outage showed fleets of Waymo vehicles just stopping in the middle of the road, seemingly confused about what to do when the lights go out.
In a comment, Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.”
A company spokesperson also shared some thoughts about the incidents. “Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”