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SpaceX’s next West Coast Starlink launch is heading to an unexpected orbit

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SpaceX has unexpectedly changed the Earth orbit its next Starlink launch is targeting.

Like all planned Starlink launches, the latest batch of satellites will ultimately raise themselves into a circular orbit around 550 kilometers (~340 mi) above Earth’s surface. However, beyond the basic orbital altitude, the mission will be completely different than previously expected.

Before SpaceX released details about the launch, which is now scheduled no earlier than (NET) 1:46 am PDT (UTC-8) on Friday, December 17th 1:24 am PDT (09:24 UTC) on Saturday, December 18th, it was believed the mission was called Starlink 2-3, or the third launch of a second ‘shell’ or group of satellites. SpaceX’s initial ~4400-satellite Starlink constellation is distributed into five different ‘shells’ – all with similar orbits between 540 and 570 km. What mainly differentiates each shell is orbital inclination, which refers to the tilt of an object’s orbit around a celestial body.

Contrary to what most expected, instead of the second dedicated Starlink launch for the constellation’s 70-degree shell (“Group 2”), SpaceX’s December 17th launch – known as Starlink 4-4 – will actually carry the third batch of “Group 4” satellites to an inclination of 53.22 degrees. Aside from once again skipping over Starlink 4-2, which has yet to launch for unknown reasons and was already leapfrogged by Starlink 4-3 earlier this month, Starlink 4-4 will also be launching out of SpaceX’s West Coast pad, while all thirty-one other dedicated 53-degree Starlink missions have launched out of Cape Canaveral, Florida.

A 53-degree launch out of Vandenberg Space Force Base, California is unusual because, up to now, it’s been unable to regularly launch to inclinations lower than approximately 56 degrees. Any lower (further east) and the rocket would end up overflying populated areas in Baja California or even the southwest coast of Mexico. For obvious reasons, the US FAA and other countries are not a fan of having what amounts to a high-velocity explosive device fly over populated areas.

A map of possible Space Shuttle launch inclinations.

The only apparent way SpaceX could launch to 53 degrees from Vandenberg is if Falcon 9 performs a dogleg maneuver several minutes after launch, effectively conducting a (slight) left turn mid-flight. While seemingly simple, even a minor few-degree dogleg maneuver can cost an intuitively large amount of delta-V, potentially significantly reducing the amount of payload a rocket can launch to a given orbit. For Starlink missions, maximizing payload to orbit is perhaps the single most important way (beyond reusability) SpaceX is able to reduce launch costs.

However, according to the prelaunch information SpaceX provided Celestrak, Starlink 4-4 will launch 52 V1.5 satellites into orbit – just one less than an equivalent launch (Starlink 4-1) from the East Coast. If SpaceX only needs to reduce an optimal stack of 53 V1.5 satellites to 52 to pay for Starlink 4-4’s dogleg maneuver, it’s technically only raising the average launch cost per satellite or unit of network bandwidth by less than 2%. That’s not a bad trade given that it could allow SpaceX to expand the number of launch pads capable of supporting the most common Starlink launches from two to three – a 50% increase. At the end of the day, deploying as many mid-inclination Starlink satellites as quickly as possible is likely the fastest way to expand network capacity, add Starlink subscribers, and thus grow revenue.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas

The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer.

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla is ramping up production of its ‘new’ Model Y Standard at Gigafactory Texas just over a week after it first announced the vehicle on October 7.

Earlier this month, Tesla launched the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” their release of what it calls its affordable models. They are priced under $40,000, and although there was some noise surrounding the skepticism that they’re actually “affordable,” it appears things have been moving in the right direction.

The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer:

The new Standard Tesla models are technically the company’s response to losing the $7,500 EV tax credit, which significantly impacts any company manufacturing electric vehicles.

However, it seems the loss of the credit is impacting others much more than it is Tesla.

As General Motors and Ford are scaling back their EV efforts because it is beginning to hurt their checkbooks, Tesla is moving forward with its roadmap to catalyze annual growth from a delivery perspective. While GM, Ford, and Stellantis are all known for their vehicles, Tesla is known for its prowess as a car company, an AI company, and a Robotics entity.

Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

Tesla should have other vehicles coming in the next few years, especially as the Cybercab is evidently moving along with its preliminary processes, like crash testing and overall operational assessment.

It has been spotted at the Fremont Factory several times over the past couple of weeks, hinting that the vehicle could begin production sometime next year.

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Tesla set to be impacted greatly in one of its strongest markets

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tesla norway
Credit: Robert O. Akander-Lima/LinkedIn

Tesla could be greatly impacted in one of its strongest markets as the government is ready to eliminate a main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years.

In Norway, EV concentrations are among the strongest in the world, with over 98 percent of all new cars sold in September being electric powertrains. This has been a long-standing trend in the Nordic region, as countries like Iceland and Sweden are also highly inclined to buy EVs.

Tesla Model Y leads sales rush in Norway in August 2025

However, the Norwegian government is ready to abandon a subsidy program it has in place, as it has effectively achieved what it set out to do: turn consumers to sustainability.

This week, Norway’s Finance Minister, Jens Stoltenberg, said it is time to consider phasing out the benefits that are given to those consumers who choose to buy an EV.

Stoltenberg said this week (via Reuters):

“We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and … we can say that the goal has been achieved. Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits.”

EV subsidies in Norway include reduced value-added tax (VAT) on cheaper models, lower road and toll fees, and even free parking in some areas.

The government also launched programs that would reduce taxes for companies and fleets. Individuals are also exempt from the annual circulation tax and fuel-related taxes.

In 2026, changes will already be made. Norway will lower its EV tax exemption to any vehicle priced at over 300,000 crowns ($29,789.40), down from the current 500,000, which equates to about $49,500.

Tesla Superchargers most liked by Norway EV drivers

This would eliminate each of the Tesla Model Y’s trim levels from tax exemption status. In 2027, the VAT exemptions will be completely removed. Not a single EV on the market will be able to help owners escape from tax-exempt status.

There is some pushback on the potential loss of subsidies and benefits, and some groups believe that the loss of the programs will regress the progress EVs have made.

Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian EV Association, said:

“I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don’t want to go back there.”

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Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies

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elon musk
Credit: @Gf4Tesla/Twitter

With the loss of the $7,500 Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, it looks as if Tesla CEO Elon Musk was right all along.

As the tax credit’s loss starts to take effect, car companies that have long relied on the $7,500 credit to create sales for themselves are starting to adjust their strategies for sales and their overall transition to electrification.

On Tuesday, General Motors announced it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its upcoming quarterly earnings results from its EV investments.

Ford said in late September that it expects demand for its EVs to be cut in half. Stellantis is abandoning its plan to have only EVs being produced in Europe by 2030, and Chrysler, a brand under the Stellantis umbrella, is bailing on lofty EV sales targets here in the U.S.

How Tesla could benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that axes EV subsidies

The tax credit and EV subsidies have achieved what many of us believed they were doing: masking car companies from the truth about their EV demand. Simply put, their products are not priced attractively enough for what they offer, and there is no true advantage to buying EVs developed by legacy companies.

These tax credits have helped companies simply compete with Tesla, nothing more and nothing less. Without them, their products likely would not have done as well as they have. That’s why these companies are now suddenly backtracking.

It’s something Elon Musk has said all along.

Back in January, during the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said:

“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly. But, long term, it probably actually helps Tesla, that would be my guess.”

In July of last year, Musk said on X:

“Take away all the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”

Over the past few years, Tesla has started to lose its market share in the U.S., mostly because more companies have entered the EV manufacturing market and more models are being offered.

Nobody has been able to make a sizeable dent in what Tesla has done, and although its market share has gotten smaller, it still holds nearly half of all EV sales in the U.S.

Tesla’s EV Market Share in the U.S. By Year

    • 2020 – 79%
    • 2021 – 72%
    • 2022 – 62%
    • 2023 – 55%
    • 2024 – 49%

As others are adjusting to what they believe will be tempered demand for their EVs, Tesla has just reported its strongest quarter in company history, with just shy of half a million deliveries.

Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might

Although Tesla benefited from the EV tax credit, particularly last quarter, some believe it will have a small impact since it has been lost. The company has many other focuses, with its main priority appearing to be autonomy and AI.

One thing is for sure: Musk was right.

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