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SpaceX to launch Europe’s next deep space telescope, first asteroid orbiter
On October 17th, a NASA official speaking at an Astrophysics Advisory Committee meeting revealed that the European Space Agency (ESA) had begun “exploring options” and studying the feasibility of launching the Euclid near-infrared space telescope on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.
In a major upset, director Josef Aschbacher confirmed less than three days later that ESA will contract with SpaceX to launch the Euclid telescope and Hera, a multi-spacecraft mission to a near-Earth asteroid, after all domestic alternatives fell through.
The European Union and, by proxy, ESA, are infamously insular and parochial about rocket launch services. That attitude was largely cultivated by ESA and the French company Arianespace’s success in the international commercial launch market in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s – a hard-fought position that all parties eventually seemed to take for granted. When that golden era slammed headfirst into the brick wall erected by SpaceX in the mid-2010s, Arianespace found itself facing a truly threatening competitor for the first time in 15+ years.
More importantly, ESA and the EU had minimal sway over SpaceX and could do very little to halt the private company from quickly becoming a leader of the international launch industry. Much like the traditional US launch industry that SpaceX also aggressively disrupted, ESA, EU, and Ariane officials remained in denial well into the late 2010s, even as SpaceX devoured their market share.
When ESA and Arianespace began work on a rocket to follow their highly successful and once-competitive Ariane 5 in the early and mid-2010s, they also ignored SpaceX’s loud pursuit of affordable launches through reusable rockets. European stakeholders ultimately opted to develop a fully-expendable successor – Ariane 6 – that merely tweaked the ingredients of the proven Ariane 5 formula. But after choosing the path of least resistance in 2014, Ariane 6’s launch debut has still slipped from 2020 to “late 2023” at the earliest, causing chaos for many of the commercial and institutional European payloads assigned to the rocket over the years.
Then, in February 2022, Russia illegally invaded Ukraine a second time, throwing all other aspects of Europe into chaos. As part of the hostilities and in response to widespread European criticism, Russia took a batch of US-built, British-owned OneWeb satellites hostage, stole the Soyuz rocket they had already purchased, and reneged on a launch deal in a move that cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars. Doubling down, they also officially withdrew from all partnerships with ESA and Arianespace, ending the practice of Europeanized Soyuz launches and leaving multiple joint missions stranded or in limbo.
Euclid was one such mission. Development of the small near-infrared space telescope began in the early 2010s and was predicted to cost “more than 1 billion Euros” as of 2013. At the time, a European Soyuz 2.1 rocket was scheduled to launch Euclid to the Sun-Earth system’s L2 Lagrange point as early as 2020. After Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine killed Soyuz as an option, ESA briefly claimed that it would instead launch Euclid on Ariane 6.
In October 2022, ESA announced that Ariane 6’s launch debut would be delayed from its current target of late 2022 to late 2023 or even early 2024. As a result, 13 satellites – most of which are European – found themselves at risk of 6, 12, or even 18+ months of guaranteed launch delays. Less than 24 hours after announcing the latest in a long line of major Ariane 6 delays, ESA’s director revealed that two of those 13 satellites were already being transferred to SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets.
Given that Euclid was orphaned by a Russian rocket, it wasn’t a huge surprise for the telescope’s launch to be handed from Arianespace to SpaceX. However, the simultaneous announcement that Hera would follow suit was far more shocking. From the start, Hera was scheduled to be one of the first payloads launched by an Ariane 64 rocket with a new Astris kick stage under development at Arianespace.
Had Hera stuck with the first three-stage Ariane 6 after the two-stage version’s latest delay, the odds of missing its 17-day October 2024 window would have increased significantly. If Hera missed that brief window, orbital mechanics would cause backup opportunities in 2025 and 2026 to extend the mission’s cruise phase (travel time) from two years to more than five years.
The €290 million Hera mission’s primary purpose is to enter orbit around the near-Earth asteroid Didiymos and study a fresh impact crater on its moon, Dimorphos. That crater is fresh because it was intentionally created when NASA’s DART spacecraft slammed into the asteroid moon last month. Fittingly, SpaceX launched DART to Dimoprhos on a Falcon 9 rocket, and will now launch Hera in its footsteps as early as October 2024. Another Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Euclid telescope into deep space as early as mid-2023.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
