SpaceX
SpaceX begins static Starhopper tests as Raptor engine arrives on schedule
SpaceX has officially begun static ground testing of Starhopper, a full-scale pathfinder Starship prototype meant to support an early series of Raptor-powered hop tests at SpaceX’s South Texas launch site. Simultaneously, the second completed Raptor engine arrived at the site on Monday, March 11th, confirming CEO Elon Musk’s March 8th tweets about the delivery.
While reasonably routine for any rocket test program, the first tanking test of Starhopper effectively marks the first time that SpaceX has begun tests with a more or less fully integrated Starship (previously BFS). Likely performed with liquid nitrogen instead of liquid oxygen/methane, the first few tanking tests will be used to determine the quality of the prototype’s stainless steel tanks – built en
In November 2016, SpaceX began propellant-loading tests of its first finished full-scale Starship (then Big Falcon Spaceship) hardware, a massive carbon composite liquid oxygen tank stretching 12 m (~40 ft) in diameter. Over the course of 2017, SpaceX transitioned from liquid nitrogen to liquid oxygen and ultimately conducted one final burst-test in which the composite tank was pressurized until it exploded, ending full-scale BFR composite testing with a bang. Within 6-12 months, Musk had come to the conclusion that a stainless steel BFR would ultimately be a superior path forward for the rocket and spaceship and attempted (apparently successfully) to get his team of R&D engineers on board with such a radical change so late in the development phase.
Despite the fact that that radical design departure may have occurred as few as 6-8 months ago, SpaceX engineers and technicians have accomplished an extremely rapid development program that will – in part – culminate in the hopefully successful hop testing of Starhopper, the first Starship prototype. While more of a rough testbed than an actual representation of the hardware and structures that will be required for a reusable orbital-class Starship, Starhopper has at least acted as a crash course (either technically or organizationally) on fabricating and assembling stainless steel aerospace structures, a material largely foreign to SpaceX flight hardware prior to late 2018.
Although the early vehicle was less than encouraging, as was the demise of its nosecone as a consequence of improper planning and/or bad workmanship, Starhopper as it now stands might actually be flightworthy in the context of suborbital, subsonic hop tests. Powered by the same or similar Raptors that would power orbital prototypes, Starhopper’s hop tests would optimally provide a wealth of experience and engineering data for both building 9 meter/30 foot-diameter stainless steel rocket sections and operating full-scale Raptor engine(s) in actual flight configurations. Extensive testing with Raptor will help to ensure that the fit and finish of the new engine’s flight-grade avionics and hardware are up to the challenge of safe, reliable, and gentle operations for a nominally crew-rated launch vehicle and spacecraft.
Around two days after Starhopper was briskly transported from its build site to SpaceX’s brand new launch facility, local Twitter account @SPadre (short for South Padre Island) posted a video of tanking test that occurred on March 11th, capturing the sound of venting as the liquid involved turned to gas inside its propellant tank(s). The fact alone that the person behind the camera was allowed to be where they were during the test all but guarantees that this first test was performed with an inert liquid, most likely liquid nitrogen given a massive delivery that occurred the day before (March 10th). In no conceivable world would SpaceX or local law enforcement willingly allow for Starhopper to be loaded – for the first time ever – with even a partial load of liquid methane or liquid oxygen with bystanders barely a few hundred feet distant.
When SpaceX gets to the point that they are confident enough in the structural integrity of Starhopper to begin wet dress rehearsals and tests with actual propellant, it’s a safe bet that the company will cooperate with local law enforcement to block off the lone access road to a distance of at least 1-2 miles, if not more. It’s unclear if local homeowners and residents will be forced to vacate the adjacent Boca Chica Village during testing, but chances are good that nobody will be within several thousand feet of Starhopper when those propellant loading tests begin, let alone actual static fire activity once Raptor(s) are installed.
According to an official SpaceX statement on the progress, propellant load tests and static fires could begin “in the days ahead”, although the spokesperson was under the impression that those tests – as well as initial hop tests – “[would] not be visible from offsite”. Unless SpaceX plans to draw a keep-out zone with a radius of multiple miles, interested observers will almost certainly be able to get close enough to at least catch a glimpse of Starhopper, but the statement still offers an idea of just how focused the company will be on safety during these early tests.
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Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
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Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
For years, there have been images and videos across social media platforms that have reminded me of when I was a 15-year-old kid teased by “Xbox 720” videos on YouTube. These videos are of the supposed “Tesla Phone” that Elon Musk was secretly developing in between leading Tesla with its electric cars and SpaceX with its reusable rockets.
Would you buy a Tesla phone ? pic.twitter.com/aaTwvvIJit
— Tesla Owners Silicon Valley (@teslaownersSV) October 6, 2023
Although Musk has put those rumors to bed several times, it was never completely out of the realm that he could get involved in cell phones in some capacity. Think outside the box and more macro-level, though. Instead of reinventing the computer, Musk reinvented connectivity by developing Starlink with SpaceX.
It could be something similar, TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams said in a note last week, where he hinted SpaceX could be gathering some steam to acquire T-Mobile.
Williams said it would be the “clear choice” for SpaceX if it decided to go through with a network acquisition. He also suggested AT&T.
The move would be possible through selling more of its own stock, which would help SpaceX raise the money to purchase T-Mobile, which would cost roughly $300 billion. It could be one of the moves SpaceX makes post-IPO in terms of an acquisition: it already acquired Cursor AI for $60 billion.
Other analysts, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, believe SpaceX and Tesla will eventually merge into one anyway, and that conglomeration could come as soon as this year, some have said.
The implications of SpaceX purchasing T-Mobile are massive. A combined entity would create a truly ubiquitous network: T-Mobile’s terrestrial 5G towers and Starlink’s growing constellation of Direct-to-Cell satellites. This would essentially eliminate dead zones across the U.S. and potentially globally.
SpaceX would instantly become a full-scale facilities-based carrier with satellite differentiation; a huge advantage. This would pressure AT&T and Verizon heavily.
There are also concerns like a potential reduction in long-term competition, and of course, a deal of that size would face intense scrutiny from government agencies.
The strategic fit is compelling due to the existing Starlink–T-Mobile partnership and complementary technologies (space + terrestrial). It could create a dominant integrated communications player. However, the regulatory, financial, and execution hurdles are enormous — this remains highly speculative with no indication SpaceX is actively pursuing it right now.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s newest Starmind will make earth data centers obsolete
Elon Musk confirmed Starmind as SpaceX’s AI satellite constellation name, targeting one million orbital compute nodes.
Elon Musk confirmed that Starmind will be the official name of SpaceX’s planned AI satellite constellation, following a trademark filing by xAI that surfaced earlier this week. Starmind is what’s being described to the FCC as a constellation of up to one million AI satellites
It’s worth noting that SpaceX’s Starlink communication satellite and Starmind are built on the same orbital infrastructure concept but serve entirely different purposes. Starlink is a connectivity network, with satellites receiving and relaying data between points on Earth, and functioning as a high-speed internet backbone in space. The satellites themselves do not process or think, and move information from one place to another, the same function a fiber cable performs underground.
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Starmind, on the other hand, is something completely different, and tather than moving data, its satellites would compute data through artificial intelligence and directly in orbit using onboard processors powered by large solar arrays. Where a Starlink satellite is essentially a very fast pipe, a Starmind satellite is a server. The practical implication is that Starmind would allow AI models to run inference, process queries, and generate outputs from space, then beam results down to users anywhere on Earth within milliseconds, and without the data ever needing to travel to a terrestrial data center.
Starship will be able to carry 30 to 50 AI1 satellites per launch, delivering the equivalent of dozens of server racks per flight, with no land acquisition, no power grid approval, and no cooling infrastructure required on the ground.
SpaceX is pursuing this new technology as terrestrial data centers are running into hard limits such as lack of physical space, community opposition, and power and water consumption at a scale that is increasingly difficult to permit. Space has unlimited solar power, natural vacuum cooling, and no zoning boards. Musk said in a June 8 video presentation that he expects space to become the lowest-cost location to deploy AI compute within two to three years. Two AI1 prototypes are scheduled to launch in early 2027, with volume production targeted for the end of that year at a new facility called Gigasat.
The real world applications Starmind enables extend well beyond powering Grok. A constellation of orbiting AI processors could run inference workloads for any paying customer, anywhere on Earth, with latency measured in milliseconds rather than the seconds associated with ground-based cloud routing across continents. Starmind, if it scales as described, would make SpaceX the landlord of AI compute the same way Starlink made it the landlord of satellite internet.
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