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SpaceX wants to launch almost 1.5k Starlink satellites next year – that’s a necessity
First reported by SpaceNews, in attendance at the 2019 World Satellite Business Week in Paris, France, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell says that the company has plans for as many as 24 dedicated Starlink launches in 2020.
This news comes less than four months after SpaceX’s inaugural Starlink launch – placing 60 prototype spacecraft in orbit on May 24th – and roughly one and a half months before a planned burst of 2-4 more Starlink missions in the final months of 2019. By leveraging the proven reusability of Falcon 9 boosters and probable reusability of Falcon payload fairings, Shotwell believes that the company can simultaneously launch dozens of Starlink missions while still regularly launching customer spacecraft next year.
Extrapolating from SpaceX’s 60-satellite Starlink launch debut, 24 dedicated Starlink missions launched via Falcon 9 rockets would translate to at least 1440 satellites placed in orbit in 2020. In a best-case scenario, SpaceX also wants to launch another four missions before the end of 2019, potentially leaving the company with more than 1700 satellites in orbit by the end of next year.
In roughly 18 months, SpaceX could thus single-handedly almost double the number of functional satellites in orbit – relative to the ~2000 currently under control. Of course, SpaceX is famous for eventually accomplishing almost every problem it sets its gaze on, but not without delays. Even achieving 12 launches – half as many as hoped for – would be a huge milestone, giving SpaceX control of the largest satellite constellation ever launched, capable of supporting an instantaneous bandwidth of ~18 terabits per second (Tbps).
Although it sounds (and is) incredibly ambitious, the reality is that that launch rate is just shy of a necessity for SpaceX to retain Starlink’s two FCC launch and operations licenses. It’s not 100% accurate, as the constellations – one around 1000 km and the other around 350 km – were granted licenses about half a year apart, but SpaceX essentially needs to launch half of its ~11,900-satellite constellation by November 2024. This gives SpaceX a little over five years from the time of this article’s publishing to launch almost 6000 satellites, translating to roughly 3.3 satellites per day or 100 satellites per month.
At 24 annual launches of 60 satellites apiece, SpaceX would average exactly 120 satellites per month, leaving a decent margin for failed or delayed launches and dead satellites. Nevertheless, although it’s extremely unlikely that the FCC would retract SpaceX’s Starlink launches after the company has launched thousands of satellites, those licenses also come with a requirement that the second half of the constellation be launched within seven years of receipt.
In the event that SpaceX manages to launch almost 6000 satellites by November 2024, this means that the company will have to almost double its effective launch cadence to fully complete Starlink by November 2027. It’s safe to say that, short of total corporate dissolution, SpaceX’s next-generation Starship launch vehicle will be operational by 2024, but in the event that Falcon 9 is still the only practical option, SpaceX would need to average almost three Starlink launches per month.
According to SpaceX, approximately a third of those 24 Starlink launches will include a small amount of extra capacity for small satellites seeking affordable access to space. Following demand that apparently far outstretched SpaceX’s anticipated interest in a new Smallsat Program, the company significantly widened its scope and lowered the base price to just $1M for up to 200 kg (440 lb) of cargo, while also announcing that some Starlink launches would include latent capacity. Public schedules show that as many as 9 Starlink missions could feature additional smallsats in 2020, followed by up to 13 in 2021.
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Elon Musk’s Grok AI to be used in U.S. War Department’s bespoke AI platform
The partnership aims to provide advanced capabilities to 3 million military and civilian personnel.
The U.S. Department of War announced Monday an agreement with Elon Musk’s xAI to embed the company’s frontier artificial intelligence systems, powered by the Grok family of models, into the department’s bespoke AI platform GenAI.mil.
The partnership aims to provide advanced capabilities to 3 million military and civilian personnel, with initial deployment targeted for early 2026 at Impact Level 5 (IL5) for secure handling of Controlled Unclassified Information.
xAI Integration
As noted by the War Department’s press release, GenAI.mil, its bespoke AI platform, will gain xAI for the Government’s suite of tools, which enable real-time global insights from the X platform for “decisive information advantage.” The rollout builds on xAI’s July launch of products for U.S. government customers, including federal, state, local, and national security use cases.
“Targeted for initial deployment in early 2026, this integration will allow all military and civilian personnel to use xAI’s capabilities at Impact Level 5 (IL5), enabling the secure handling of Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) in daily workflows. Users will also gain access to real‑time global insights from the X platform, providing War Department personnel with a decisive information advantage,” the Department of War wrote in a press release.
Strategic advantages
The deal marks another step in the Department of War’s efforts to use cutting-edge AI in its operations. xAI, for its part, highlighted that its tools can support administrative tasks at the federal, state and local levels, as well as “critical mission use cases” at the front line of military operations.
“The War Department will continue scaling an AI ecosystem built for speed, security, and decision superiority. Newly IL5-certified capabilities will empower every aspect of the Department’s workforce, turning AI into a daily operational asset. This announcement marks another milestone in America’s AI revolution, and the War Department is driving that momentum forward,” the War Department noted.
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Tesla FSD (Supervised) v14.2.2 starts rolling out
The update focuses on smoother real-world performance, better obstacle awareness, and precise end-of-trip routing, among other improvements.
Tesla has started rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2.2, bringing further refinements to its most advanced driver-assist system. The new FSD update focuses on smoother real-world performance, better obstacle awareness, and precise end-of-trip routing, among other improvements.
Key FSD v14.2.2 improvements
As noted by Not a Tesla App, FSD v14.2.2 upgrades the vision encoder neural network with higher resolution features, enhancing detection of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and human gestures. New Arrival Options let users select preferred drop-off styles, such as Parking Lot, Street, Driveway, Parking Garage, or Curbside, with the navigation pin automatically adjusting to the user’s ideal spot for precision.
Other additions include pulling over for emergency vehicles, real-time vision-based detours for blocked roads, improved gate and debris handling, and extreme Speed Profiles for customized driving styles. Reliability gains cover fault recovery, residue alerts on the windshield, and automatic narrow-field camera washing for new 2026 Model Y units.
FSD v14.2.2 also boosts unprotected turns, lane changes, cut-ins, and school bus scenarios, among other things. Tesla also noted that users’ FSD statistics will be saved under Controls > Autopilot, which should help drivers easily view how much they are using FSD in their daily drives.
Key FSD v14.2.2 release notes
Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.2.2 includes:
- Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, leveraging higher resolution features to further improve scenarios like handling emergency vehicles, obstacles on the road, and human gestures.
- Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, in a Parking Garage, or at the Curbside.
- Added handling to pull over or yield for emergency vehicles (e.g. police cars, fire trucks, ambulances).
- Added navigation and routing into the vision-based neural network for real-time handling of blocked roads and detours.
- Added additional Speed Profile to further customize driving style preference.
- Improved handling for static and dynamic gates.
- Improved offsetting for road debris (e.g. tires, tree branches, boxes).
- Improve handling of several scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and school buses.
- Improved FSD’s ability to manage system faults and recover smoothly from degraded operation for enhanced reliability.
- Added alerting for residue build-up on interior windshield that may impact front camera visibility. If affected, visit Service for cleaning!
- Added automatic narrow field washing to provide rapid and efficient front camera self-cleaning, and optimize aerodynamics wash at higher vehicle speed.
- Camera visibility can lead to increased attention monitoring sensitivity.
Upcoming Improvements:
- Overall smoothness and sentience.
- Parking spot selection and parking quality.
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Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe
Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility.
The Tesla Cybercab could very well be the safest taxi on the road when it is released and deployed for public use. This was, at least, hinted at by the intensive safety tests that Tesla seems to be putting the autonomous two-seater through at its Giga Texas crash test facility.
Intensive crash tests
As per recent images from longtime Giga Texas watcher and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla seems to be very busy crash testing Cybercab units. Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility just before the holidays.
Tegtmeyer’s aerial photos showed the prototypes clustered outside the factory’s testing building. Some uncovered Cybercabs showed notable damage and one even had its airbags engaged. With Cybercab production expected to start in about 130 days, it appears that Tesla is very busy ensuring that its autonomous two-seater ends up becoming the safest taxi on public roads.
Prioritizing safety
With no human driver controls, the Cybercab demands exceptional active and passive safety systems to protect occupants in any scenario. Considering Tesla’s reputation, it is then understandable that the company seems to be sparing no expense in ensuring that the Cybercab is as safe as possible.
Tesla’s focus on safety was recently highlighted when the Cybertruck achieved a Top Safety Pick+ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). This was a notable victory for the Cybertruck as critics have long claimed that the vehicle will be one of, if not the, most unsafe truck on the road due to its appearance. The vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating, if any, simply proved that Tesla never neglects to make its cars as safe as possible, and that definitely includes the Cybercab.
Elon Musk’s Grok AI to be used in U.S. War Department’s bespoke AI platform
Tesla FSD (Supervised) v14.2.2 starts rolling out
