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SpaceX Starship destroyed during cryo test but the next ship is already on the way
SpaceX’s third full-scale Starship prototype has followed a little too closely in the footsteps of its predecessors, suffering a catastrophic failure during its first cryogenic test.
On April 2nd, SpaceX successfully put Starship SN3 through an ambient temperature pressure, allowing the ship to take its first breaths and ensuring that no leaks were present in its massive propellant tanks. Just a handful of hours later, Starship SN3 began its first attempted cryogenic proof test. Neutral liquid nitrogen was loaded into the ship’s liquid oxygen (LOX) tank for a brief period before SpaceX aborted the test due to frozen valves in the ground support equipment (GSE) tasked with feeding the rocket — confirmed by CEO Elon Musk around 7:30 pm PDT.
Around six hours after the first attempt, SpaceX presumably managed to alleviate GSE valve issues and began Starship SN3’s second attempted cryogenic proof test around 11pm local (04:00 UTC). While things started out somewhat normally, they did not end well for the rocket prototype.
For unknown reasons, SpaceX began the second cryo test attempt by only loading Starship’s upper (LOX) tank with supercool liquid nitrogen. Given that Starship is constructed out of stainless steel sheets only slightly thicker than two US quarters, the lower (methane) tank would have almost certainly had to be pressurized, too, likely relying on gaseous (ambient temperature) nitrogen. Already, for a rocket built out of near-continuous metal, that temperature differential could pose a major problem.
Still, for the better part of three hours, things seemed to go exactly as planned, with the rocket venting dozens of times and the upper tank visibly developing a coating of frost as it began to freeze the water vapor right out of the humid Texas air. Alas, around 2:07am local (07:07 UTC), things took a turn for the worse. The unfilled methane tank below the now-LN2-laden LOX tank appeared to crumple, beginning at a small dent that appeared over the course of the test. Gravity took over a few seconds later, further crumpling the methane tank and causing the top-heavy rocket to tip over and the LOX tank to burst.
While admittedly from the armchair, not a lot of this particular failure makes sense. If the bottom methane tank were significantly pressurized with gaseous nitrogen, a rapid loss of structural integrity would have likely been a far more violent ordeal as the gas attempted to escape. Instead, the failure was – relative to the possibilities – extremely gradual. In fact, it almost appeared as if the bottom methane tank was either never actually pressurized or not pressurized nearly enough to withstand the weight of several hundred tons of liquid nitrogen. Given SpaceX’s expertise and familiarity with rocketry, that option thankfully seems vanishingly unlikely.
All other possible explanations are at least as hard to parse, leaving it up to SpaceX or CEO Elon Musk to clarify what transpired if they choose to do so.
On a more positive note, SpaceX has continued to churn out steel rings and bulkheads and assemble them into sections of Starship SN4 – the rocket’s next full-scale prototype – for the last two or so weeks. If Starship SN1, SN2, and SN3 are anything to go by, the fourth full-scale Starship prototype could be ready to head to the pad for testing just a handful of weeks from now, picking up where Starship SN3 left off. Thankfully, the latter rocket’s April 3rd failure appears to have been relatively benign as far as pad hardware goes, likely requiring minimal repair work to be ready for its next test campaign.
While unfortunate, it’s critical to remember that this is all part of SpaceX’s approach to developing new and unprecedented technologies. Be it Falcon 1, Falcon 9 booster recovery, or Falcon 9 fairing recovery, all groundbreaking SpaceX efforts have begun with several consecutive failures before the first successes – and the first streaks of consecutive successes. Given Musk’s September 2019 claim that SpaceX is putting just ~5% of its resources into Starship, prototypes like Mk1, SN1, and SN3 are being fabricated for pennies on the dollar.
As a schedule setback, SpaceX is building ships so quickly that any single prototype failure shouldn’t cause more than a handful of weeks of delays, and the goal is to produce an entire Starship every week by the end of 2020. For now, SpaceX will hopefully learn from each failure during developmental testing and roll those lessons learned into each future prototype.
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Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas
The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer.
Tesla is ramping up production of its ‘new’ Model Y Standard at Gigafactory Texas just over a week after it first announced the vehicle on October 7.
Earlier this month, Tesla launched the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y “Standard,” their release of what it calls its affordable models. They are priced under $40,000, and although there was some noise surrounding the skepticism that they’re actually “affordable,” it appears things have been moving in the right direction.
The vehicles are being built at Tesla Gigafactory Texas in Austin, and there are plenty of units being built at the factory, based on a recent flyover by drone operator and plant observer Joe Tegtmeyer:
News: the @Tesla Model Y Standard production is well underway at Giga Texas today!
This consistent with what I was told to expect during the unveiling day last week!
The outbound lot had many Premium Model Y’s and @cybertruck too!
More coming soon! pic.twitter.com/WU489QKPLB
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) October 16, 2025
The new Standard Tesla models are technically the company’s response to losing the $7,500 EV tax credit, which significantly impacts any company manufacturing electric vehicles.
However, it seems the loss of the credit is impacting others much more than it is Tesla.
As General Motors and Ford are scaling back their EV efforts because it is beginning to hurt their checkbooks, Tesla is moving forward with its roadmap to catalyze annual growth from a delivery perspective. While GM, Ford, and Stellantis are all known for their vehicles, Tesla is known for its prowess as a car company, an AI company, and a Robotics entity.
Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies
Tesla should have other vehicles coming in the next few years, especially as the Cybercab is evidently moving along with its preliminary processes, like crash testing and overall operational assessment.
It has been spotted at the Fremont Factory several times over the past couple of weeks, hinting that the vehicle could begin production sometime next year.
Tesla could be greatly impacted in one of its strongest markets as the government is ready to eliminate a main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years.
In Norway, EV concentrations are among the strongest in the world, with over 98 percent of all new cars sold in September being electric powertrains. This has been a long-standing trend in the Nordic region, as countries like Iceland and Sweden are also highly inclined to buy EVs.
However, the Norwegian government is ready to abandon a subsidy program it has in place, as it has effectively achieved what it set out to do: turn consumers to sustainability.
This week, Norway’s Finance Minister, Jens Stoltenberg, said it is time to consider phasing out the benefits that are given to those consumers who choose to buy an EV.
Stoltenberg said this week (via Reuters):
“We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and … we can say that the goal has been achieved. Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits.”
EV subsidies in Norway include reduced value-added tax (VAT) on cheaper models, lower road and toll fees, and even free parking in some areas.
The government also launched programs that would reduce taxes for companies and fleets. Individuals are also exempt from the annual circulation tax and fuel-related taxes.
In 2026, changes will already be made. Norway will lower its EV tax exemption to any vehicle priced at over 300,000 crowns ($29,789.40), down from the current 500,000, which equates to about $49,500.
This would eliminate each of the Tesla Model Y’s trim levels from tax exemption status. In 2027, the VAT exemptions will be completely removed. Not a single EV on the market will be able to help owners escape from tax-exempt status.
There is some pushback on the potential loss of subsidies and benefits, and some groups believe that the loss of the programs will regress the progress EVs have made.
Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian EV Association, said:
“I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don’t want to go back there.”
With the loss of the $7,500 Electric Vehicle Tax Credit, it looks as if Tesla CEO Elon Musk was right all along.
As the tax credit’s loss starts to take effect, car companies that have long relied on the $7,500 credit to create sales for themselves are starting to adjust their strategies for sales and their overall transition to electrification.
On Tuesday, General Motors announced it would include a $1.6 billion charge in its upcoming quarterly earnings results from its EV investments.
Ford said in late September that it expects demand for its EVs to be cut in half. Stellantis is abandoning its plan to have only EVs being produced in Europe by 2030, and Chrysler, a brand under the Stellantis umbrella, is bailing on lofty EV sales targets here in the U.S.
How Tesla could benefit from the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ that axes EV subsidies
The tax credit and EV subsidies have achieved what many of us believed they were doing: masking car companies from the truth about their EV demand. Simply put, their products are not priced attractively enough for what they offer, and there is no true advantage to buying EVs developed by legacy companies.
These tax credits have helped companies simply compete with Tesla, nothing more and nothing less. Without them, their products likely would not have done as well as they have. That’s why these companies are now suddenly backtracking.
It’s something Elon Musk has said all along.
Back in January, during the Q4 and Full Year 2024 Earnings Call, Musk said:
“I think it would be devastating for our competitors and for Tesla slightly. But, long term, it probably actually helps Tesla, that would be my guess.”
In July of last year, Musk said on X:
“Take away all the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.”
Take away the subsidies. It will only help Tesla.
Also, remove subsidies from all industries!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 16, 2024
Over the past few years, Tesla has started to lose its market share in the U.S., mostly because more companies have entered the EV manufacturing market and more models are being offered.
Nobody has been able to make a sizeable dent in what Tesla has done, and although its market share has gotten smaller, it still holds nearly half of all EV sales in the U.S.
Tesla’s EV Market Share in the U.S. By Year
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- 2020 – 79%
- 2021 – 72%
- 2022 – 62%
- 2023 – 55%
- 2024 – 49%
As others are adjusting to what they believe will be tempered demand for their EVs, Tesla has just reported its strongest quarter in company history, with just shy of half a million deliveries.
Will Tesla thrive without the EV tax credit? Five reasons why they might
Although Tesla benefited from the EV tax credit, particularly last quarter, some believe it will have a small impact since it has been lost. The company has many other focuses, with its main priority appearing to be autonomy and AI.
One thing is for sure: Musk was right.
Tesla ramps production of its ‘new’ models at Giga Texas
Tesla set to be impacted greatly in one of its strongest markets
Elon Musk was right all along about Tesla’s rivals and EV subsidies
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