SpaceX
SpaceX’s Starship prototype set for first serious test after Raptor engine installed
In concert with South Texas’ Cameron County, SpaceX has officially scheduled the first serious test – requiring temporary road closures – of its Starship prototype, unofficially nicknamed ‘Starhopper’ in light of its ultimate goal of performing low-altitude, low-velocity hop tests.
SpaceX technicians have already successfully completed a number of unspecified tanking tests – likely with chemically neutral liquid nitrogen – and completed acceptance and installation of Raptor serial number 02 (SN02), setting the stage for the giant testbed’s first flight-critical tests. Now set to occur between
Scarcely seven days after the engine’s arrival in Boca Chica, SpaceX technicians completed the first-ever installation of a flight-ready Raptor – SN02 – on a full-scale BFR prototype known as Starhopper. Aside from marking a major symbolic milestone for the company’s next-generation rocket development program, the installation of a functional rocket engine on the first partial-fidelity vehicle prototype means that SpaceX can now enter into a new and critical stage of development: integrated flight testing.
Assuming (hopefully) that SpaceX has yet to conduct actual fueling tests of the Starship prototype without establishing roadblocks and safety perimeters, something that would be an egregious threat to nearby locals, it’s likely that this first major test – much like SpaceX’s established Falcon 9 and Heavy test regime – will involve a process known as a Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR). A WDR would see Starhopper loaded with liquid methane and oxygen propellant – potentially anywhere from the bare minimum needed to operate a single Raptor to completely filling its tanks – to verify that the prototype’s complex plumbing system and giant tanks are operating nicely together under flight conditions (i.e. cryogenic temperatures, thermal and mechanical stresses, chemical environments, etc.). Much like routine Falcon 9 static fire tests performed both at SpaceX’s McGregor, TX test site and the launch pad, data indicating that the rocket is behaving nominally during the WDR allows the operations team to transition smoothly from a WDR into a captive static fire test, in which the vehicle’s engine(s) are briefly ignited to simulate the first few seconds prior to liftoff.
It’s relatively rare but not unusual for planned Falcon 9 or Heavy static fire tests to end during the WDR phase in cases where the launch team observes data that appears to be less than nominal. SpaceX generally takes a “better safe than sorry” approach to these sorts of operations, swallowing the costs and risk of raising customers’ ire due to delays in order to ensure the highest probability of complete launch success.
For a vehicle as utterly new and alien as Starhopper is to both SpaceX and the aerospace industry as a whole, it’s safe to say that that tendency towards caution will be readily on display throughout these first several tests, at least until the company’s operations technicians and engineers are considerably more familiar with the prototype rocket’s behavior. On the other hand, given just how shoestring the budget of this beast likely is and how rapidly SpaceX managed to go from an empty dirt lot to a hop-test-ready, 30ft/9m-diameter Starship prototype, it’s equally likely that the company – particularly CEO Elon Musk – will accept the increased risk of catastrophic vehicle failures to keep the development program as agile as possible.
As Musk himself frequently and famously is known to say, it’s far better to push hardware to failure during early testing than it is to hold back and risk largely unplanned failures during nominal operations, a lesson that SpaceX itself has learned the hard way several times. One step further, while they are at best undeniably inconvenient and expensive, major vehicle failures during testing can actually be an invaluable source of data that ultimately improves the system as a whole. For BFR, a launch vehicle meant to safely, routinely, and reliably transport as many as 100+ people both around the Earth and solar system, all possible opportunities to learn and improve the system prior to risking the lives of passengers will be an absolute necessity if SpaceX wants to ensure that customers remain willing to trust the company and its spacecraft with their lives.
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Elon Musk
The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on
Musk disputes NASA estimate of 22 Starship launches for Moon landing, predicting 6 to 8.
Elon Musk is disputing a new NASA safety panel estimate of how many Starship launches it will take to put astronauts on the Moon, saying the real number will be less than half the panel’s figure.
On Thursday, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel held its quarterly public meeting. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, flagged the fueling process for SpaceX’s lunar lander as a major risk for Artemis IV, the mission planned to land a crew on the Moon in 2028. “We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander,” Precourt said, according to Ars Technica. “I think the last estimate is around 22 flights.”
Ars Technica’s Eric Berger posted the comment on X, and Musk replied. “That’s way too high,” Musk wrote. “Actual number will be more like 6 to 8.”
The disagreement comes down to a basic problem with sending a ship as large as Starship to the Moon. Starship burns nearly all of its propellant just reaching Earth orbit, so it cannot continue on to the Moon without stopping for a refill. SpaceX’s answer is a gas station in space. First, a Starship that works as a storage tank, called a depot, is launched into orbit. Then a series of tanker Starships launch one at a time, dock with the depot and pump their leftover propellant into it. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander version of Starship launches, docks, fills up and heads for the Moon.
Every tanker trip is its own full rocket launch, which is why the count matters. More launches mean more time, more cost and more chances for something to go wrong before astronauts ever leave Earth. Berger estimated that even if SpaceX reaches twice weekly Starship launches by the end of 2027, filling a depot at the panel’s number would still take roughly three months.
How many tankers are needed depends mostly on how much propellant each one can carry to orbit and how much is lost along the way. Starship’s fuel and oxygen are stored at extremely cold temperatures, and some of it slowly boils off while waiting in orbit. More is lost in each transfer. NASA appears to be working from what Starship can lift today, while Musk’s range assumes a more capable rocket.
Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021, after a government document suggested 16 launches, he called that “extremely unlikely” and said eight tankers would be the most required.
Much of the answer depends on hardware SpaceX has not finished flying. As Teslarati noted earlier this year, the company plans to carry out the refueling process with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt described Artemis IV as carrying “a large number of firsts.” He also praised NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s team for working to clear obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
The Starship moon landing number NASA and Elon Musk can’t agree on
Tesla’s secretive “Project Crystal Sun” gets a big green light in Texas
