SpaceX has returned an upgraded Super Heavy booster to the factory after an unexpected explosion and fireball caused “minor” damage during testing.
CEO Elon Musk first revealed that the company would need to remove the rocket from Starbase’s orbital launch pad for inspections and repairs on July 13th, about a day and a half after the anomaly. On July 11th, during what may have been a partial wet dress rehearsal (WDR), a dispersed cloud of methane gas found an accidental ignition source and exploded with a force that at least one observer estimated was equivalent to several pounds of TNT. Several nail-biting hours of uncertainty followed, during which SpaceX attempted to empty Super Heavy Booster 7 of its propellant (and explosive potential) and regain control of the situation, while simultaneously trying to avoid stoking a fire that started at the pad.
With a heaping serving of luck, Booster 7 made it through the event (mostly) intact. Now SpaceX must take a close appraisal of the rocket and situation and decide how to proceed.
Musk, as always, has put his optimistic face forward on Twitter and in a direct response to Reuters. According to an email sent shortly after an early in-person post-anomaly inspection, Musk stated that Booster 7 could return “to the launch stand probably next week” – implying that any damage suffered was extremely minor. By the time Super Heavy was removed from the launch mount the next day (July 14th), however, it became clear that the situation wasn’t quite as optimal.
Instead, Booster 7’s aft engine section was clearly damaged, with some of the dozens of thermal protection panels enclosing 33 Raptor engines apparently torn off or knocked askew by the July 11th blast. Given the tight fit and relatively heavy-duty nature of some of those panels, deformation could easily damage some of the more sensitive plumbing and components on Raptor engines. The day prior, teams spent hours tearing out unexpectedly fragile components of Booster 7’s hidden aft heat shielding and even removed and replaced one of its Raptors in-situ.
More likely than not, all Raptor engines with minor damage can be repaired and reused on a future booster. The explosion may also give SpaceX invaluable data that can be used to improve the durability and performance of Raptor and Super Heavy’s heat shield. Nonetheless, a methodical inspection of Booster 7’s aft end could easily take a week or two. If more chronic damage is discovered or the whole aft heat shield or a large number of Raptors need to be removed and replaced, the hiatus could grow to a month or more.
Following Booster 7’s July 15th return to the Starbase factory, SpaceX appears to have begun removing more Raptor engines on July 17th, kicking off a phase that will hopefully be heavy on encouraging inspection results and light on substantial repairs. If it turns out that the Super Heavy prototype is mostly in great shape after such a violent anomaly, it would bode well for the rocket’s durability during future ground and flight testing. If it did not fare well, SpaceX may need to seriously reconsider whether Booster 7 is fit to support Starship’s orbital launch debut or even proceed into static fire testing.
Either way, SpaceX recently finished stacking Super Heavy Booster 8. If it’s made a priority, the newest prototype could be made ready to take over where Booster 7 left off within a few weeks. Alternatively, it could even join a repaired Booster 7 at the launch pad for basic proof testing while its predecessor attempts to restart its first static fire campaign. Simultaneously, Starship S24 is almost ready to begin its own static fire test campaign, guaranteeing an eventful and hardware-rich period at Starbase after several months of relative inaction.
SpaceX has 12-hour road closures likely meant for Ship 24 testing scheduled daily from Monday, July 18th to Thursday, July 21st.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
News
Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
In a comment last October, Elon Musk stated that FSD V14.2 is “for widespread use.”
Tesla has begun rolling out Full Self-Driving (Supervised) V14.2, and with this, the wide release of the system could very well begin.
The update introduces a new high-resolution vision encoder, expanded emergency-vehicle handling, smarter routing, new parking options, and more refined driving behavior, among other improvements.
FSD V14.2 improvements
FSD (Supervised) V14.2’s release notes highlight a fully upgraded neural-network vision encoder capable of reading higher-resolution features, giving the system improved awareness of emergency vehicles, road obstacles, and even human gestures. Tesla also expanded its emergency-vehicle protocols, adding controlled pull-overs and yielding behavior for police cars, fire trucks, and ambulances, among others.
A deeper integration of navigation and routing into the vision network now allows the system to respond to blocked roads or detours in real time. The update also enhances decision-making in several complex scenarios, including unprotected turns, lane changes, vehicle cut-ins, and interactions with school buses. All in all, these improvements should help FSD (Supervised) V14.2 perform in a very smooth and comfortable manner.
Elon Musk’s predicted wide release
The significance of V14.2 grows when paired with Elon Musk’s comments from October. While responding to FSD tester AI DRIVR, who praised V14.1.2 for fixing “95% of indecisive lane changes and braking” and who noted that it was time for FSD to go on wide release, Musk stated that “14.2 for widespread use.”
FSD V14 has so far received a substantial amount of positive reviews from Tesla owners, many of whom have stated that the system now drives better than some human drivers as it is confident, cautious, and considerate at the same time. With V14.2 now rolling out, it remains to be seen if the update also makes it to the company’s wide FSD fleet, which is still populated by a large number of HW3 vehicles.
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
