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SpaceX first Super Heavy ‘test tank’ is almost ready for prime time
SpaceX has almost completed a ‘test tank’ meant to ensure that Starship’s Super Heavy booster is capable of withstanding the immense thrust of more than two-dozen Raptor engines.
Believed to be known as test tank BN2.1, the prototype’s latest appearance comes on the heels of news from CEO Elon Musk that SpaceX has upgraded Super Heavy with one extra Raptor engine – with plans to add another three down the road. The results of that tank’s imminent test campaign will likely be crucial as the company shifts its focus sending Starship to orbit (or close) as soon as possible.
Prior to a new Super Heavy booster ‘thrust puck’ design first spotted on May 29th, at least two separate booster engine section prototypes completed in the last few months sported an earlier variant more akin to a donut. At that point, Super Heavy’s design had a central cluster of eight gimballing, throttleable Raptors surrounded by a ring of 20 Raptor Boost (“RBoost”) engines – a variant meant to trade the ability to throttle for ~25% more thrust.
While Super Heavy booster BN1’s almost immediate scrapping – prior to a single test – guaranteed that major design changes were on the way, exactly what those changes would be was anyone’s guess. The appearance of a new booster ‘thrust puck’ design and Musk’s subsequent announcement that Super Heavy will “initially” have 29 – not 28 – Raptors likely mean that that engine section redesign was a major contributor to BN1’s instant obsolescence. The only other major change SpaceX clearly made with booster BN2 was switching the positions of its liquid methane and liquid oxygen tanks, ensuring that Super Heavy’s heavier oxidizer is closer to the rocket’s base.
Musk also stated that SpaceX will eventually upgrade Super Heavy to 32 engines, giving future boosters a central cluster of 12 engines that the SpaceX CEO says will significantly improve the efficiency of boostback burns.
With 29 identical Raptors, the simplest possible Super Heavy booster would produce up to 5800 tons (12.8M lbf) of thrust at liftoff. If SpaceX has already completed Raptor Boost’s design and qualification and kicked off mass production of a 250-mTf engine, that liftoff thrust climbs to 6800 tons (~15M lbf). If SpaceX achieves performance goals (~210 mTf stock; ~300 mTf RBoost) mentioned by Musk last year, a 32-engine Super Heavy could achieve peak liftoff thrust greater than 8500 metric tons (~18.7M lbf).
Even in its weakest configuration, Super Heavy will still be more than 60% more powerful than Saturn V and 25% more powerful than N1 – the largest rockets to have ever successfully or unsuccessfully flown. That immense thrust demands a structure capable of surviving those extreme forces while simultaneously feeding dozens of Raptors up to ~28 metric tons (~61,000 lb) of propellant every second and withstanding several thousand tons of liquid oxygen – all without leaking, cracking, or flexing too much.
While BN2.1 wont have any of the plumbing associated with dozens of Raptors, nine hydraulic rams will let SpaceX subject its Super Heavy thrust structure to the simulated thrust of some number of engines. Given the presence of nine rams and nine clustered engines, it’s unclear if BN2.1 will only test that main thrust structure or if those rams will somehow be spread out to simulate the thrust of a full 29 engines – 20 of which will instead transfer most or all of their thrust into Super Heavy’s skirt.
Regardless, if successful, BN2.1’s test campaign should leave SpaceX on track to attempt Starship’s inaugural spaceflight as early as Q3 2021. If issues arise, that target could easily slip to Q4 or into 2022, but SpaceX’s test tank campaigns have historically been very successful.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
