News
SpaceX Starship website spotted ahead of Elon Musk’s June rocket update
It appears that SpaceX is preparing a dedicated website for its proposed Starship point-to-point transport system, potentially capable of transporting dozens of passengers anywhere on Earth in just 30-60 minutes.
Assuming this website is actually a prelude to a SpaceX reveal (it could be completely unrelated), it seems likely that Starship.com will go live sometime around CEO Elon Musk’s planned June 20th update on Starship and Super Heavy. Much like Starlink.com went live on the day of SpaceX’s first dedicated launch, the company may be ready to tease more substantial details and fleshed-out plans for its aspirational Starship airline.
Big Falcon Challenge
Regardless of the theoretical viability of SpaceX’s Earth-to-Earth transport aspirations or the company’s readiness to kick off the publicity for the service, the fact remains that maturing Starship/Super Heavy (formerly BFR) into a system with reliability approaching that of airliners will take at least 5-10 years, if not decades. The idea itself – using reusable rockets to transport customers anywhere on Earth in 30-60 minutes at a cost comparable to business class tickets – is undeniably alluring and theoretically achievable. However, the list of “iff” statements that must first be satisfied for is immense and full of an array of technological firsts, any one of which could be a showstopper.
The greatest challenge of affordable, reliable point-to-point transport relates directly to the need for affordability and reliability. Put simply, rockets are in many ways far more complex than modern airliners, requiring margins of design and error and that would make commercial aircraft engineers blush. Modern FAA regulations currently expect manufacturers and operators to design, build, and fly passenger aircraft such that the chances of catastrophic failure (generally a fatal crash and total hull loss) average one in one billion flight hours. That may sound downright unachievable, but modern airliners routinely reach levels of reliability measured in hundreds of millions of flight hours between loss-of-life failures.
The best records of rocket reliability are currently held by Ariane 5 and Atlas V, reaching success streaks without catastrophic failure of 86 launches and 81 launches, respectively. It’s difficult to compare airliners and rockets, as rockets feature multiple stages and are typically only active for 30-90 minutes. Under the generous and inaccurate assumption that the average Ariane 5 mission accounts for 90 minutes of “flight time”, the most statistically reliable launch vehicle ever built is roughly 1,000,000 to 10,000,000 times less safe than the FAA’s present-day certification requirements. It would be more accurate to compare the distance traveled per catastrophic failure, but that would still indicate that the proven safety record of launch vehicles is perhaps 20,000 to 200,000 times worse than that of modern passenger aircraft.
Extreme reusability: extreme reliability?
Additionally, most modern rockets are expended, although SpaceX is doing everything it can to flip that equation. The only conceivable way to sustain a real commercial market for suborbital, hypersonic passenger transportation – aside from guaranteeing that passengers are unlikely to die – is to implement a level of rapid reusability that is entirely unprecedented in spaceflight. As it turns out, regardless of any Earthbound spaceliner ambitions the company may have, SpaceX’s ultimate mission is to accomplish precisely that goal, albeit in order to colonize Mars in a practical timeframe.
What has never explicitly been a part of SpaceX’s goal, however, is achieving that level of extreme reusability simultaneously alongside airliner-class reliability. Accepting high levels of risk has always been front and center to Elon Musk’s presentations on SpaceX’s BFR-powered Mars ambitions, with the CEO often indicating that chances of death would be quite high on early missions to the Red Planet. Of course, surviving and building a colony on Mars is a fair bit riskier than anything specifically centered around Earth and suborbital flight regimes.
All of this is to say that SpaceX may or may not succeed in its ambition of developing a spacecraft/booster that is as extraordinarily reliable as it is reusable, just as SpaceX may or may not publish a website dedicated to Earth-to-Earth Starship transport sometime next month. Stay tuned to find out on the next episode!
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
