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SpaceX, ULA win multibillion-dollar military launch contract years in the making
Ending a process that began almost two years ago, the US Air Force (now Space Force) has selected SpaceX and ULA to be the recipients of a multibillion-dollar series of launch contracts that stretch into the late 2020s.
Known as the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 Launch Services Acquisition (LSA), the US Air Force publicly began the initiative in Q4 2018. In May 2019, the LSA process was opened to bidders and the military ultimately received serious proposals from SpaceX, the United Launch Alliance (ULA), Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin.
While the latter three companies proposed their respective next-generation rockets – still in development – to complete at least a dozen military launches from 2022 to 2027, SpaceX offered up Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. As of April 2020, Falcon 9 officially usurped ULA’s Atlas V rocket to become the United States’ most prolific operational rocket. While ULA has technically included Atlas V as a backup option in its NSSL Phase 2 bid, the company’s primary launch vehicle is Vulcan Centaur, scheduled to fly for the first time no earlier than July 2021.
As a result, failing to award SpaceX at least one of the two NSSL LSA Phase 2 slots – split 60:40 – would have almost assuredly made a farce of the US military competition. The real question, then, was who would win the other award, and whether the US military would shock the industry with a final decision more technical than political. As previously discussed on Teslarati, the fact that four separate companies submitted serious bids for Phase 2 gave the US military a significant opportunity.
“For dubious reasons, the US Air Force (USAF) has structured the NSSL Phase 2 acquisition in such a way that – despite there being four possible competitors – only two will be awarded contracts at its conclusion. The roughly ~34 launch contracts up for grabs would be split 60:40 between the two victors, leaving two competitors completely empty handed.”
Teslarati.com — August 14th, 2019
Despite repeated petitions by Blue Origin and the attempted intervention of lawmakers in Congress, the US military remained ardently against awarding Phase 2 launch contracts to more than two providers throughout the competition. Barring a successful protest from snubbed bidders Northrop Grumman and/or Blue Origin, it appears that the military ultimately won the battle, selecting two providers.
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Instead of awarding even just a handful of the 34 launch contracts up for grabs to Northrop Grumman, the US Space Force is all but guaranteeing that the company’s Omega rocket will die in the cradle without an immediate slew of additional military contracts. There’s a chance that NSSL Phase 1 LSA funding will continue, likely giving NG the money it needs to complete Omega’s development, but that’s far from guaranteed.
Funded entirely out of Jeff Bezos’ pocket, Blue Origin’s ambitious New Glenn reusable rocket is more insulated from a lack of US military contracts and the company could also continue to receive several hundred million dollars as part of an LSA Phase 1 award. For Blue Origin, already set on entering New Glenn into the commercial launch market, military funding could ensure that the company does the extra work needed to certify the rocket and its production facilities for military launches.
Down the road, that means that the US Air Force, Space Force, or National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) could all feasibly award Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman launch contracts outside the 34 Phase 2 missions without having to start a development and certification process that can take a year or more from scratch.
Regardless of the missed opportunities, the NSSL LSA Phase 2 contract is a major win for SpaceX and guarantees the company’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets some 13-14 military launch contracts over a five-year period. For ULA, the victory is likely a massive relief, given that the company’s next-generation (expendable) Vulcan Centaur rocket has next to no chance of sustaining itself with commercial launch contracts. Much like Atlas V in the last decade of the rocket’s life and Delta IV over most of its two-decade career, ULA’s Vulcan rocket will continue the trend of relying almost exclusively on US military contracts.
This time around, however, the US military’s preferential treatment of ULA is nakedly obvious. At almost every turn, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets can provide the same launch services as ULA for anywhere from 20-50% less. For the few missions (direct to geostationary) where ULA’s Atlas V, Delta IV, and Vulcan rockets might actually have a step up over SpaceX, the US could have easily awarded ULA the smaller 40% share or even split that 40% share with Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman, giving SpaceX the lion’s share and likely saving hundreds of millions of dollars – if not $1B+ – over the next seven years.
Instead, business (more or less) as usual will continue for at least another decade as the US military functionally subsidizes ULA’s existence by prioritizing a more expensive rocket to achieve the same outcome. The first LSA Phase 2 launches are currently scheduled to begin no earlier than (NET) 2022.
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Tesla Europe rolls out FSD ride-alongs in the Netherlands’ holiday campaign
The festive event series comes amid Tesla’s ongoing push for regulatory approval of FSD across Europe.
Tesla Europe has announced that its “Future Holidays” campaign will feature Full Self-Driving (Supervised) ride-along experiences in the Netherlands.
The festive event series comes amid Tesla’s ongoing push for regulatory approval of FSD across Europe.
The Holiday program was announced by Tesla Europe & Middle East in a post on X. “Come get in the spirit with us. Featuring Caraoke, FSD Supervised ride-along experiences, holiday light shows with our S3XY lineup & more,” the company wrote in its post on X.
Per the program’s official website, fun activities will include Caraoke sessions and light shows with the S3XY vehicle lineup. It appears that Optimus will also be making an appearance at the events. Tesla even noted that the humanoid robot will be in “full party spirit,” so things might indeed be quite fun.
“This season, we’re introducing you to the fun of the future. Register for our holiday events to meet our robots, see if you can spot the Bot to win prizes, and check out our selection of exclusive merchandise and limited-edition gifts. Discover Tesla activities near you and discover what makes the future so festive,” Tesla wrote on its official website.
-->This announcement aligns with Tesla’s accelerating FSD efforts in Europe, where supervised ride-alongs could help demonstrate the tech to regulators and customers. The Netherlands, with its urban traffic and progressive EV policies, could serve as an ideal and valuable testing ground for FSD.
Tesla is currently hard at work pushing for the rollout of FSD to several European countries. Tesla has received approval to operate 19 FSD test vehicles on Spain’s roads, though this number could increase as the program develops. As per the Dirección General de Tráfico (DGT), Tesla would be able to operate its FSD fleet on any national route across Spain. Recent job openings also hint at Tesla starting FSD tests in Austria. Apart from this, the company is also holding FSD demonstrations in Germany, France, and Italy.
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Tesla sees sharp November rebound in China as Model Y demand surges
New data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows a 9.95% year-on-year increase and a 40.98% jump month-over-month.
Tesla’s sales momentum in China strengthened in November, with wholesale volumes rising to 86,700 units, reversing a slowdown seen in October.
New data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows a 9.95% year-on-year increase and a 40.98% jump month-over-month. This was partly driven by tightened delivery windows, targeted marketing, and buyers moving to secure vehicles before changes to national purchase tax incentives take effect.
Tesla’s November rebound coincided with a noticeable spike in Model Y interest across China. Delivery wait times extended multiple times over the month, jumping from an initial 2–5 weeks to estimated handovers in January and February 2026 for most five-seat variants. Only the six-seat Model Y L kept its 4–8 week estimated delivery timeframe.
The company amplified these delivery updates across its Chinese social media channels, urging buyers to lock in orders early to secure 2025 delivery slots and preserve eligibility for current purchase tax incentives, as noted in a CNEV Post report. Tesla also highlighted that new inventory-built Model Y units were available for customers seeking guaranteed handovers before December 31.
This combination of urgency marketing and genuine supply-demand pressure seemed to have helped boost November’s volumes, stabilizing what had been a year marked by several months of year-over-year declines.
-->For the January–November period, Tesla China recorded 754,561 wholesale units, an 8.30% decline compared to the same period last year. The company’s Shanghai Gigafactory continues to operate as both a domestic production base and a major global export hub, building the Model 3 and Model Y for markets across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, among other territories.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Tesla Europe rolls out FSD ride-alongs in the Netherlands’ holiday campaign
Tesla sees sharp November rebound in China as Model Y demand surges
