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SpaceX, ULA win multibillion-dollar military launch contract years in the making

SpaceX is now set to create an upgraded Falcon fairing and build a massive, mobile building to satisfy stringent US military requirements. (SpaceX)

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Ending a process that began almost two years ago, the US Air Force (now Space Force) has selected SpaceX and ULA to be the recipients of a multibillion-dollar series of launch contracts that stretch into the late 2020s.

Known as the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 Launch Services Acquisition (LSA), the US Air Force publicly began the initiative in Q4 2018. In May 2019, the LSA process was opened to bidders and the military ultimately received serious proposals from SpaceX, the United Launch Alliance (ULA), Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin.

While the latter three companies proposed their respective next-generation rockets – still in development – to complete at least a dozen military launches from 2022 to 2027, SpaceX offered up Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. As of April 2020, Falcon 9 officially usurped ULA’s Atlas V rocket to become the United States’ most prolific operational rocket. While ULA has technically included Atlas V as a backup option in its NSSL Phase 2 bid, the company’s primary launch vehicle is Vulcan Centaur, scheduled to fly for the first time no earlier than July 2021.

(Teslarati – ULA/NGIS/Blue Origin/SpaceX)

As a result, failing to award SpaceX at least one of the two NSSL LSA Phase 2 slots – split 60:40 – would have almost assuredly made a farce of the US military competition. The real question, then, was who would win the other award, and whether the US military would shock the industry with a final decision more technical than political. As previously discussed on Teslarati, the fact that four separate companies submitted serious bids for Phase 2 gave the US military a significant opportunity.

“For dubious reasons, the US Air Force (USAF) has structured the NSSL Phase 2 acquisition in such a way that – despite there being four possible competitors – only two will be awarded contracts at its conclusion. The roughly ~34 launch contracts up for grabs would be split 60:40 between the two victors, leaving two competitors completely empty handed.”

Teslarati.com — August 14th, 2019

Despite repeated petitions by Blue Origin and the attempted intervention of lawmakers in Congress, the US military remained ardently against awarding Phase 2 launch contracts to more than two providers throughout the competition. Barring a successful protest from snubbed bidders Northrop Grumman and/or Blue Origin, it appears that the military ultimately won the battle, selecting two providers.

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Omega. (Northrop Grumman)
New Glenn. (Blue Origin)

Instead of awarding even just a handful of the 34 launch contracts up for grabs to Northrop Grumman, the US Space Force is all but guaranteeing that the company’s Omega rocket will die in the cradle without an immediate slew of additional military contracts. There’s a chance that NSSL Phase 1 LSA funding will continue, likely giving NG the money it needs to complete Omega’s development, but that’s far from guaranteed.

Funded entirely out of Jeff Bezos’ pocket, Blue Origin’s ambitious New Glenn reusable rocket is more insulated from a lack of US military contracts and the company could also continue to receive several hundred million dollars as part of an LSA Phase 1 award. For Blue Origin, already set on entering New Glenn into the commercial launch market, military funding could ensure that the company does the extra work needed to certify the rocket and its production facilities for military launches.

Down the road, that means that the US Air Force, Space Force, or National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) could all feasibly award Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman launch contracts outside the 34 Phase 2 missions without having to start a development and certification process that can take a year or more from scratch.

SpaceX completed its first operational US military Falcon 9 launch on June 30th. (Richard Angle)

Regardless of the missed opportunities, the NSSL LSA Phase 2 contract is a major win for SpaceX and guarantees the company’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets some 13-14 military launch contracts over a five-year period. For ULA, the victory is likely a massive relief, given that the company’s next-generation (expendable) Vulcan Centaur rocket has next to no chance of sustaining itself with commercial launch contracts. Much like Atlas V in the last decade of the rocket’s life and Delta IV over most of its two-decade career, ULA’s Vulcan rocket will continue the trend of relying almost exclusively on US military contracts.

This time around, however, the US military’s preferential treatment of ULA is nakedly obvious. At almost every turn, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets can provide the same launch services as ULA for anywhere from 20-50% less. For the few missions (direct to geostationary) where ULA’s Atlas V, Delta IV, and Vulcan rockets might actually have a step up over SpaceX, the US could have easily awarded ULA the smaller 40% share or even split that 40% share with Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman, giving SpaceX the lion’s share and likely saving hundreds of millions of dollars – if not $1B+ – over the next seven years.

Instead, business (more or less) as usual will continue for at least another decade as the US military functionally subsidizes ULA’s existence by prioritizing a more expensive rocket to achieve the same outcome. The first LSA Phase 2 launches are currently scheduled to begin no earlier than (NET) 2022.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla might be doing away with a long-included feature with its vehicles

It appears Tesla is mulling the possibility of not including key cards with its vehicles any longer.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla might be doing away with a long-included feature with its vehicles, as it could be looking to phase out something that very few owners utilize.

Tesla Key Cards are included when you purchase your vehicle, and they assist in the initial setup process. However, after that, they are not super useful or relevant to the owner, as many rely on their Phone Key through the Tesla App to access their cars.

As such, it appears Tesla is mulling the possibility of not including key cards with its vehicles any longer. According to some language that has been removed from vehicle Owner’s Manuals that talks about the inclusion of key cards with the car upon delivery:

“Tesla provides you with two Model 3/Y key cards, designed to fit in your wallet.”

That sentence was removed from Owner’s Manuals, according to Not a Tesla App, which first spotted the change.

Tesla Model 3 owner implants RFID key card chip into her arm as ultimate hack to unlock door

Interestingly, the timing of the phrase being removed from Owner’s Manuals comes just after Tesla launched its “affordable” Standard Models, and could be a small money-saving measure for the company.

Key Cards have been utilized by Tesla for its cars since 2017, as they became an included accessory with the vehicle. They still have their place and are useful for other applications, such as Valet service and even to be used by car owners if their phone is dead or if someone else needs to get into the car.

They can also be purchased in the Tesla Shop for $40.

It seems as if Tesla is planning to have owners be completely reliant on the Phone Key, which is more useful and convenient than carrying around the Key Cards.

Although it is minor, it is yet another strategy Tesla is using to trim any sort of costs that can be eliminated and could save money in the long run.

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Elon Musk confirms Tesla FSD V14.2 will see widespread rollout

Musk shared the news in a post on social media platform X.

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Credit: Whole Mars Catalog/X

Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla will be implementing a wide rollout of Full Self-Driving (FSD) V14 with the system’s V14.2 update. Musk shared the news in a post on social media platform X. 

FSD V14.1.2 earns strong praise from testers

Musk’s comment came as a response to Tesla owner and longtime FSD tester AI DRIVR, who noted that it might be time to release Full Self-Driving to the fleet because V14.1.2 has already become very refined.

“95% of the indecisive lane changes and braking have been fixed in FSD 14.1.2. I haven’t touched my steering wheel in two days. I think it’s time, Tesla AI,” the longtime FSD tester wrote

AI DRIVR’s comment received quite a bit of support from fellow Tesla drivers, some of whom noted that the improvements that were implemented in V14.1.2 are substantial. Others also agreed that it’s time for FSD to see a wide release.

In his reply to the FSD tester, CEO Elon Musk noted that FSD V14’s wide release would happen with V14.2. “14.2 for widespread use,” Musk wrote in his reply

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Mad Max mode makes headlines

One of the key features that was introduced with FSD’s current iteration is Mad Max mode, which allows for higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than the previous “Hurry” mode. Videos and social media posts from FSD testers have shown the system deftly handling complex traffic, merging seamlessly, and maintaining an assertive but safe driving behavior with Mad Max mode engaged.

Tesla AI head Ashok Elluswamy recently noted in a post on X that Mad Max mode was built to handle congested daytime traffic, making it extremely useful for drivers who tend to find themselves in heavy roads during their daily commutes. With Musk now hinting that FSD V14.2 will go on wide release, it might only be a matter of time before the larger Tesla fleet gets to experience the notable improvements of FSD’s V14 update.

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Multiple Tesla Cybercab units spotted at Giga Texas crash test facility

The vehicles were covered, but one could easily recognize the Cybercab’s sleek lines and compact size.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

It appears that Tesla is ramping up its activities surrounding the development and likely initial production of the Cybercab at Giga Texas. This was, at least, hinted at in a recent drone flyover of the massive electric vehicle production facility in Austin. 

Cybercab sightings fuel speculations

As observed by longtime Giga Texas drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla had several covered Cybercab units outside the facility’s crash testing facility at the time of his recent flyover. The vehicles were covered, but one could easily recognize the Cybercab’s sleek lines and compact size. Tegtmeyer also observed during his flyover that production of the Model Y Standard seems to be hitting its pace.

The drone operator noted that the seven covered Cybercabs might be older prototypes being decommissioned or new units awaiting crash tests. Either scenario points to a ramp-up in Cybercab activity at Giga Texas, however. “In either case, this is another datapoint indicating production is getting closer to happening,” Tegtmeyer wrote on X, highlighting that the autonomous two-seaters were quite exciting to see.

Cybercab production targets

This latest sighting follows reports of renewed Cybercab appearances at both the Fremont Factory and Giga Texas. A test unit was recently spotted driving on Giga Texas’ South River Road. Another Cybercab, seen at Tesla’s Fremont Factory, appeared to be manually driven, suggesting that the vehicle’s current prototypes may still be produced with temporary steering controls.

The Tesla Cybercab is designed to be the company’s highest-volume vehicle, with CEO Elon Musk estimating that the autonomous two-seater should see an annual production rate of about 2 million units per year. To accomplish this, Tesla will be building the Cybercab using its “Unboxed” process, which should help the vehicle’s production line achieve outputs that are more akin to consumer electronics production lines.

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