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SpaceX, ULA win multibillion-dollar military launch contract years in the making
Ending a process that began almost two years ago, the US Air Force (now Space Force) has selected SpaceX and ULA to be the recipients of a multibillion-dollar series of launch contracts that stretch into the late 2020s.
Known as the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 Launch Services Acquisition (LSA), the US Air Force publicly began the initiative in Q4 2018. In May 2019, the LSA process was opened to bidders and the military ultimately received serious proposals from SpaceX, the United Launch Alliance (ULA), Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin.
While the latter three companies proposed their respective next-generation rockets – still in development – to complete at least a dozen military launches from 2022 to 2027, SpaceX offered up Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. As of April 2020, Falcon 9 officially usurped ULA’s Atlas V rocket to become the United States’ most prolific operational rocket. While ULA has technically included Atlas V as a backup option in its NSSL Phase 2 bid, the company’s primary launch vehicle is Vulcan Centaur, scheduled to fly for the first time no earlier than July 2021.

As a result, failing to award SpaceX at least one of the two NSSL LSA Phase 2 slots – split 60:40 – would have almost assuredly made a farce of the US military competition. The real question, then, was who would win the other award, and whether the US military would shock the industry with a final decision more technical than political. As previously discussed on Teslarati, the fact that four separate companies submitted serious bids for Phase 2 gave the US military a significant opportunity.
“For dubious reasons, the US Air Force (USAF) has structured the NSSL Phase 2 acquisition in such a way that – despite there being four possible competitors – only two will be awarded contracts at its conclusion. The roughly ~34 launch contracts up for grabs would be split 60:40 between the two victors, leaving two competitors completely empty handed.”
Teslarati.com — August 14th, 2019
Despite repeated petitions by Blue Origin and the attempted intervention of lawmakers in Congress, the US military remained ardently against awarding Phase 2 launch contracts to more than two providers throughout the competition. Barring a successful protest from snubbed bidders Northrop Grumman and/or Blue Origin, it appears that the military ultimately won the battle, selecting two providers.



Instead of awarding even just a handful of the 34 launch contracts up for grabs to Northrop Grumman, the US Space Force is all but guaranteeing that the company’s Omega rocket will die in the cradle without an immediate slew of additional military contracts. There’s a chance that NSSL Phase 1 LSA funding will continue, likely giving NG the money it needs to complete Omega’s development, but that’s far from guaranteed.
Funded entirely out of Jeff Bezos’ pocket, Blue Origin’s ambitious New Glenn reusable rocket is more insulated from a lack of US military contracts and the company could also continue to receive several hundred million dollars as part of an LSA Phase 1 award. For Blue Origin, already set on entering New Glenn into the commercial launch market, military funding could ensure that the company does the extra work needed to certify the rocket and its production facilities for military launches.
Down the road, that means that the US Air Force, Space Force, or National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) could all feasibly award Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman launch contracts outside the 34 Phase 2 missions without having to start a development and certification process that can take a year or more from scratch.


Regardless of the missed opportunities, the NSSL LSA Phase 2 contract is a major win for SpaceX and guarantees the company’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets some 13-14 military launch contracts over a five-year period. For ULA, the victory is likely a massive relief, given that the company’s next-generation (expendable) Vulcan Centaur rocket has next to no chance of sustaining itself with commercial launch contracts. Much like Atlas V in the last decade of the rocket’s life and Delta IV over most of its two-decade career, ULA’s Vulcan rocket will continue the trend of relying almost exclusively on US military contracts.
This time around, however, the US military’s preferential treatment of ULA is nakedly obvious. At almost every turn, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets can provide the same launch services as ULA for anywhere from 20-50% less. For the few missions (direct to geostationary) where ULA’s Atlas V, Delta IV, and Vulcan rockets might actually have a step up over SpaceX, the US could have easily awarded ULA the smaller 40% share or even split that 40% share with Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman, giving SpaceX the lion’s share and likely saving hundreds of millions of dollars – if not $1B+ – over the next seven years.
Instead, business (more or less) as usual will continue for at least another decade as the US military functionally subsidizes ULA’s existence by prioritizing a more expensive rocket to achieve the same outcome. The first LSA Phase 2 launches are currently scheduled to begin no earlier than (NET) 2022.
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News
Tesla China expecting full FSD approval in Q1 2026: Elon Musk
The CEO shared the update during Tesla’s Annual Shareholder Meeting.
Elon Musk has provided a concrete estimated date for Full Self-Driving’s (FSD) full approval in China. While a version of the system has been deployed to some users in China, the company only holds partial approval for FSD features in the country.
The CEO shared the update during Tesla’s Annual Shareholder Meeting, where stockholders also voted to approve Elon Musk’s ambitious 2025 performance award.
Elon Musk’s China FSD update
During the meeting, Elon Musk stated that Tesla expects to secure full regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in China by February or March 2026. This would mark a potential breakthrough in one of the world’s most competitive EV markets.
“We have partial approval in China, and we hopefully will have full approval in China around February or March or so. That’s what they’ve told us,” Musk said.
Tesla’s rollout of FSD features in China began in February 2025 under update 2024.45.32.12, which introduced what the company locally called “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads.” While not officially branded as FSD, the feature mirrored Tesla’s inner-city capabilities.
Positive feedback from China
Feedback from local drivers suggests strong real-world performance for the company’s “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads” feature. One driver who used the system for two months described it as “well-calibrated and human-like,” adding that it “slows appropriately on narrow streets and picks up speed on major roads.” The Tesla owner further reported zero safety interventions over his testing period, calling the system “almost too polite” when encountering pedestrians and scooters.
A Tesla Model 3 driver was also able to drive to the base camp of Mount Everest from Henan Province, a journey of about 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles), using “Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads.” The driver’s trip was livestreamed on Chinese social media, where it attracted a lot of interest from viewers.
Elon Musk
Tesla Optimus’ pilot line will already have an incredible annual output
And this would just be the beginning. In the future, Musk mused that Optimus’ production could literally be out of this world.
During the 2025 Tesla Annual Shareholder Meeting, Elon Musk provided a teaser of the company’s targets for Optimus’s annual production. As per the CEO, Optimus’ pilot line will be capable of producing up to one million units annually.
And this would just be the beginning. In the future, Musk mused that Optimus’ production could literally be out of this world.
Musk targets world’s fastest production ramp for Optimus robots
Tesla’s first Optimus line will be built in Fremont, California, and is projected to produce around one million robots per year. Other facilities like Gigafactory Texas could scale Optimus production to 10 million units annually. Musk even joked that a 100-million-unit line might one day be built “on Mars.” With Optimus, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to achieve a historic production ramp.
“So we’re going to launch on the fastest production ramp of any product of any large complex manufactured product ever, starting with building a one million unit production line in Fremont. And that’s Line One. And then a 10-million-unit-per-year production line here (at Giga Texas). I don’t know where we’re going to put the one hundred million unit production line, maybe on Mars. But I think it’s going to literally get to one hundred million a year, maybe even a billion a year,” Musk said.
Optimus and sustainable abundance
Tesla’s Master Plan Part IV is all about sustainable abundance, and Musk highlighted that the humanoid robot will play a huge role in his vision for the future. He noted that Optimus’ mass production could redefine economic and social systems worldwide and open up premium services for everyone across the globe.
“People often talk about eliminating poverty or giving everyone amazing medical care. There’s only one way to do that, and that’s with the Optimus robot,” Musk said. “With humanoid robots, you can actually give everyone amazing medical care. In terms of Optimus will be more precise. Optimus will ultimately be better than the best human surgeon with a level of precision that is beyond human… People always talked about eliminating poverty, but actually, Optimus will actually eliminate poverty,” Musk said.
News
Ford considers drastic move with F-150 Lightning: ‘The demand is just not there’
Ford is considering a drastic move with its F-150 Lightning, which was the best-selling EV pickup on the market last quarter, beating out Tesla’s Cybertruck.
Ford has had a tumultuous entrance into its more expanded electric vehicle strategy over the past several years. At one point, the company was widely considered to be the most invested legacy automaker in the transition to electrification, but as the company has seen some real backtracking in terms of its sales and demand, it is cooling down its commitment.
At the end of Q3, it seemed to already be considering making some moves to cool off its EV ambitions, especially as the $7,500 EV tax credit was removed and it appeared that consumers would be less attracted to its vehicles without this sizeable discount.
Now, according to a new report from the Wall Street Journal, Ford is considering scrapping the F-150 Lightning altogether, as one employee said “the demand is just not there.”
Despite it being the best-selling EV pickup in the U.S. last quarter, the sales simply do not match up with the pricing, and financially, it is not the time to try to dive further into a project that is not making a profit. Ford has been dwindling in its commitment to EVs over the past several quarters, and its profits are reflecting a slowing interest in its electric vehicles.
Simply put, Ford’s combustion engine lineup of pickups in the F-Series is, by far, the best-selling division of trucks globally. Ford brought an awesome product forth with the Lightning, a mirror of the gas-powered F-Series that had a variety of trim levels for whatever the truck would be used for by the consumer.
However, the demand and sales have caused Ford to take a loss on its electric truck: figures from early last year indicated it was losing between $100,000 and $132,000 per vehicle.
It is not an official announcement, as Ford has not publicly said anything regarding its plans for the Lightning at this time.
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