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SpaceX closes in on West Coast Starlink launches with lease for drone ship dock space

Late Falcon 9 booster B1048 sails into Port of Los Angeles. A new SpaceX lease in an adjacent port suggests that the view could return to the West Coast after a more than three-year hiatus. (Pauline Acalin)

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Amid a major hiring push and calls for monthly launches, SpaceX has taken its latest step towards launching Starlink satellites from the West Coast with a lease for rocket recovery ship dock space at the Port of Long Beach.

News of the port lease broke on April 26th with a tweet from the mayor of Long Beach, California after the Port of Long Beach (POLB) Commission voted to approve SpaceX’s 24-month sublease with an effective start date of May 1st, 2021. From 2014 to 2020, a massive floating rocket launch complex and associated service ships once used by SeaLaunch called POLB’s Pier 16 home while mothballed and the company left behind a decent amount of infrastructure when it vacated the facility last year.

That includes a ~5600 square meter (~65,000 sq ft) warehouse and office space formerly used to process SeaLaunch payloads and Ukrainian Zenit rockets, as well as a pier and dock space generally optimized for loading and unloading large rockets from rocket transport ships. In other words, Pier 16 is a perfect fit for SpaceX’s needs.

The news came as a surprise because SpaceX already has a lease for several berths and dock space at Port of San Pedro, which – along with Port of Long Beach – makes up the greater Port of Los Angeles. SpaceX has used those facilities for the better part of a decade – initially to support Dragon spacecraft recoveries but later as a hub for drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) and fairing recovery ship Mr. Steven (later Ms. Tree).

SpaceX has a bit of a sordid history with port leases over the last several years after twice entering and backing out of Port of Los Angeles (San Pedro) lease agreements to build a Starship factory directly on the water in 2018 and 2020. This time around, POLB commission documents indicate that this new lease is not the third in a line of ill-fated Starship factory plans – but instead a simple relocation of existing West Coast Falcon rocket recovery operations just two miles east of their current home.

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It’s unclear why exactly SpaceX is leasing much larger berth and dock space at a port in competition with its current Port of Los Angeles landlord or if Pier 16 will be an addition to – or a replacement for – its current berths to the west. At approximately $100,000 per month, Pier 16 will be substantially more expensive, ruling out cost savings, which could mean that SpaceX has reason to believe that its West Coast rocket recovery operations are going to experience a substantial uptick in activity in the near future.

Indeed, in retrospect, SpaceX’s current Port of San Pedro berths and dock space have always been fairly limited, offering just enough space for a few small tents on concrete and a drone ship and two support vessels to park end to end. Assuming SpaceX moves all operations to Pier 16 and closes out its San Pedro lease, the new facilities should offer a bit more dock space along the pier itself, as well as far more room – and an existing warehouse with offices – to process recovered Falcon boosters and fairings.

Over half a decade of operations, SpaceX recovered Falcon boosters with drone ship JRTI just seven times (of eight attempts) on the West Coast, making it clear why the company simply chose to make do with close quarters and a barebones dockside setup. Now, however, SpaceX appears to be preparing its Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) launch site and associated Port of LA recovery assets for a far more ambitious period of Falcon 9 launch activity.

Other observations support that conclusion. Over the last six or so months, SpaceX has been aggressively hiring to fully outfit its VAFB SLC-4 launch pad after supporting just two West Coast launches in the last ~28 months. Most notably, hiring ‘flyers’ distributed on social media by SpaceX employees touted a target of monthly launches from the company’s West Coast pad – an unprecedented cadence over the decade SpaceX has leased it.

First reported by Spaceflight Now, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell recently revealed that the company intends to begin dedicated polar Starlink launches from Vandenberg as early as this summer – July 2021 if taken literally. Other “industry officials” reportedly corroborated those plans.

With its hiring campaign finally starting to slow down and a new Port of Long Beach lease set to open on May 1st, the only real ‘missing link’ for SpaceX’s plans to restart regular West Coast Falcon 9 launches is the fleet of ships the company will need to recover Falcon boosters and payload fairings. To maximize efficiency, dedicated polar Starlink launches will require Falcon 9 boosters to land far downrange and will be even more challenging than the rocket’s now-routine missions to low Earth orbit (LEO), which require almost every ounce of performance the rocket can give.

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SpaceX transported its second drone ship – Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) – across the Panama Canal from Port of LA to Port Canaveral, Florida in 2019, where it still operates today. To achieve SpaceX’s planned cadence of up to 48 launches in 2021, the company will almost certainly need both drone ships on the East Coast. A third drone ship – named A Shortfall Of Gravitas (ASOG) – has been in the works for years, though SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has long described the vessel as an addition to the company’s Florida fleet that would enable Falcon Heavy to land all three first-stage boosters at sea for maximum payload capacity.

For now, we’ll just have to wait and see if SpaceX intends to send that third drone ship directly to California to support an imminent series of polar Starlink launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla’s comfort level taking risks makes the stock a ‘must own,’ firm says

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had coverage initiated on it by a new firm this week, and analysts said that the company’s comfort level with taking risks makes it a “must own” for investors.

Melius Research and analyst Rob Wertheimer initiated coverage of the stock this week with a $520 price target and a “Buy” rating. The price target is about 20 percent higher than the current trading price as shares closed at $435 on Wednesday, up 1.38 percent on the day.

Wertheimer said in the note to investors that introduced their opinion on Tesla shares that the company has a lot going for it, including a prowess in AI, domination in its automotive division, and an incredible expertise in manufacturing and supply chain.

He wrote:

“We see Tesla shares as a must-own. The disruptive force of AI will wreck multitrillion-dollar industries, starting with auto. Under Musk’s leadership, the company is comfortable taking risks. It has manufacturing scale and supply chain expertise that robotics startups possess more by proxy. It can rapidly improve and scale autonomy in driving, the first major manifestation of AI in the physical world.”

However, there were some drawbacks to the stock, according to Wertheimer, including its valuation, which he believes is “challenging” given its fundamentals. He said the $1 trillion market cap that the company represented was “guesswork,” and not necessarily something that could be outlined on paper.

This has been discussed by other analysts in the past, too. Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld recently called Tesla the “biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen,” by stating:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Additionally, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Some analysts covering Tesla have said they believe the stock is traded on narrative and not necessarily fundamentals.

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Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla launched its fastest Full Self-Driving Speed Profile with the v14.1.2 Software Update on Wednesday, as “Mad Max” mode has overtaken “Hurry” as the most spirited travel option on FSD.

On Wednesday evening, Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, teased that the v14.1.2 Software Update would be released to those drivers in the Early Access Program (EAP). He said it was a “much-awaited feature.”

Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update

Many people, myself included, believed it would be the introduction of “Banish,” which would be a perfect complement to the Actually Smart Summon (ASS) suite, as it would find a parking spot and park itself after dropping you off at the front door of your destination.

However, Elluswamy’s post on X finished with two emojis: one a race car, the other being smoke behind the car.

On Wednesday night, we received the v14.1.2 software update to the new Model Y, which revealed that “Mad Max” mode was the new addition:

The release notes state that:

“Introduced new speed profile MAD MAX, which comes with higher speeds and more frequent lane changes than Hurry.”
It is pretty interesting that Tesla would introduce yet another speed profile that is even faster and more aggressive than “Hurry.” Personally, I’ve found Hurry to be realistic in terms of other drivers and their aggressiveness, speed of travel, and overall lane change behavior, especially on interstates.

Mad Max mode will be an interesting adjustment.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk first talked about Mad Max mode back in 2018 in posts on X, first mentioning the feature with the Tesla Semi:

Musk then teased Mad Max mode in 2019 with an early Autopilot update, stating that it would be an ideal option for aggressive traffic seen in places like Los Angeles. There was formerly a mode of the same name back in the late 2010s:

Now that it’s here, we’ll be testing it very soon and giving you a good idea of what to expect when it releases to others in the coming weeks.

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Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East | X

Update 9:56 p.m. ET: We got it…

Tesla launches ‘Mad Max’ Full Self-Driving Speed Profile, its fastest yet

Tesla just teased something crazy with the next Full Self-Driving update, which will be released to Early Access Program (EAP) members today.

Tesla just recently released the v14 Full Self-Driving update, and it followed up just a few days later with v14.1.1.

The subsequent release helped refine a handful of things, especially an issue with stuttering at intersections and overall indecisiveness, but it was more of a smoothing over of the initial v14.1 Full Self-Driving release.

However, on Wednesday evening, Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said that the company would be releasing v14.1.2 to EAP members today, and that it would “debut a much-awaited feature.”

He followed that up with a racecar emoji and a smoke emoji, potentially hinting toward something speed-related. However, it could mean something totally different.

Some suggested it was potentially a new Speed Profile that could rank above the “Hurry” option, but that seems unnecessary. As far as other features that have been teased, one that definitely comes to mind is the “Banish” feature that was recently teased by CEO Elon Musk.

Banish is essentially the finishing touch to Tesla’s Actually Smart Summon (ASS), which launched earlier this year.

While ASS will bring your car to your location using the Tesla app on your phone, Banish does just the opposite by dropping you off at the door of your destination and finding a parking spot on its own.

Elon Musk teases ‘Banish’ feature to pair perfectly with Summon

This was recently teased by Musk yet again, as he said earlier this month that Full Self-Driving would be capable of it very soon.

Based on what we’ve seen out of v14.1 and v14.1.1, there is some potential that Banish could be released and could be the feature that Elluswamy is hinting toward, although there is no direct evidence of that.

Luckily, I was able to get into the EAP, so as the feature is released and the Release Notes are available, we’ll be able to report on exactly what feature is on the way.

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