Investor's Corner
Tesla’s battery tech and software push is starting to make sense for veteran vehicle-makers
When Tesla was designing the Model S, the company made it a point to build the vehicle from the ground up. This means that everything, from the electric cars’ battery packs to its software, are manufactured by Tesla itself. Tesla’s approach to electric cars is the auto equivalent of Apple’s strategy with the iPhone and iOS, and it finally seems to be making sense to some legacy vehicle-makers.
Elon Musk’s private space firm, SpaceX, is known for producing its rockets in-house. Musk took this same approach with Tesla in the company’s early days, and the result of this approach was the Model S, a vehicle like no other on the road, with simple, powerful, all-electric internals and a software that is custom-built for the car. A particularly telling image of this hands-on, in-house approach was taken during the company’s younger days, featuring a much younger CTO JB Straubel assembling one of Tesla’s early battery packs by hand.
And in a lot of ways, this strategy worked. Tesla’s in-house approach for the Model S was a key point in the vehicle’s allure to consumers. This carried over to the Model X, and now, the Model 3. With Tesla’s 2170 cells used in the Model 3 gaining rave reviews from teardown experts like Sandy Munro of Munro and Associates, and with the company preparing to release Software Version 9, Tesla is poised to take even bigger steps in its mission to usher the transition to sustainable mobility.
Tesla’s history is rife with criticism and doubts from the veterans of the auto industry, but now that the company has established itself as a leader in the premium electric car segment, its progress and breakthroughs now seem to be undeniable, even to traditional vehicle makers.
Just recently, a report from German publication Electrive emerged, citing insiders from Jaguar who noted that the veteran carmaker will be using Samsung SDI’s cylindrical 2170 battery cells for the electric cars it would produce from 2020 onwards. This is a big step for Jaguar, considering that the I-PACE, its first all-electric vehicle that can actually compete with the Model X 75D and 100D in terms of performance, is currently using pouch cells from LG Chem.
Using Samsung SDI’s 2170 cells for its electric cars’ batteries would likely benefit Jaguar, considering that the I-PACE is currently being bogged down by reports that the vehicle is lacking in efficiency and range. Jaguar might never admit it, but it’s not difficult to infer that the company’s decision to reportedly commit to 2170 cells was partly influenced by Tesla’s progress in its battery tech.
Tesla Model 3s side by side in a parking lot.
Another vehicle-maker is starting to see the value of software and its relationship to hardware. Earlier today, veteran motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson stated that it is planning to open a dedicated research and development facility in Silicon Valley to support its plans for its upcoming line of electric bikes. Harley-Davidson plans to release its first motorcycle, dubbed the “LiveWire,” sometime next year, and it would be the first of a line that features a “twist and go” system. The LiveWire is set to be followed by other electric bikes in 2022 as the company transitions to producing cleaner and possibly even quicker, more powerful vehicles.
Seemingly taking a cue from Tesla, Harley Davidson is now in full throttle recruiting Silicon Valley talent in electrical, software, and mechanical engineering. Just like Jaguar and its decision to commit to 2170 cells, Harley-Davidson’s decision to establish a Silicon Valley-based team seems to be inspired partly by Tesla and its software-focused electric cars.
Tesla is not a perfect company by any means, and its leader, Elon Musk, is not infallible. Musk himself would be the first to admit that Tesla committed a lot of errors in the past, and it is through these failures that the company was able to fail forward. Tesla is now a much more mature electric car maker that knows its market and knows what it’s doing; and if the recent updates from Jaguar and Harley-Davidson are any indication, it appears that other vehicle-makers are now starting to realize the value of Tesla’s experience.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) will report its second public earnings call today since its IPO earlier this year, and there are a few things we expect to hear about, as well as Wall Street analysts, who have already outlined their expectations for the call.
Wall Street analysts have a consensus of $12.72 billion in revenue and an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13. These are broken down into three sectors: Space, Connectivity, and AI/SI, which are perceived in this way:
- Space: $1.41 billion
- Connectivity: $4.84 billion
- AI/SI: $6.47 billion
Other outlets cluster near $12.8 or $12.9 billion in revenue and $0.14 – $0.15 EPS. This implies a roughly 65 percent sequential growth from Q2’s $7.81 billion, driven mostly by AI/SI, with the first post-IPO positive EPS expected.
Here are the three things to watch for on the call:
AI Revenue Ramp and the $100B+ ARR target
AI is truly the swing factor for SpaceX, and analysts expect it to roughly double from Q2’s $2.56 billion and become about half of total revenue. Management previously guided to a $100 billion+ annualized run rate by December, including the Cursor acquisition, which was $60 billion, to close the quarter.
Listen for updates on SpaceX’s compute capacity, especially pertaining to its contracts with Google, Anthropic, and others, revenue per watt, any new deals, and Cursor’s early contribution.
Starlink/Connectivity Metrics and Mobile Expansion
Connectivity remains a main profit engine for SpaceX. Subscriber additions will be something to pay attention to, as Q2 ended at 12 million and previews are looking at 14 million for this quarter. Additionally, ARPU trends, enterprise and government growth, and any commentary on Starlink Mobile will be something to pay attention to, especially following the recent low-band spectrum deal and FCC-related constellation approvals.
Capex Trajectory, Cash Burn/FCF, and Starship/Operational Updates
Q2 capex of roughly $18.4 billion weighed on the stock. Investors will look to scrutinize Q3 spending levels, any guidance on the pace into Q4/2027, free cash flow, backlog, and liquidity. Operational color on Starship (Flight 14 milestones and Flight 15 timing/reusability progress), Falcon cadence, and government/NASA contracts are also in focus.
Of course, there will also be some speculation on the potential Tesla-SpaceX merger, but there was nothing mentioned in the company’s proxy it sent earlier this week.
SpaceX will report earnings after market close today and will stream the call on X.
Watch live as SpaceX discusses our Q3 2026 earnings at 3:30pm CT today → https://t.co/Qrb0qeVG15
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 20, 2026
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here
Elon Musk said he is planning to give “every one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America” in 2027, stating that “this will be the first of many.”
SpaceX went public earlier this year, and its stock price has been relatively stable since leveling off shortly after its IPO. Based on its current price, it’s a gift of just over $10 billion to children across the United States.
It appears to be closely related to President Donald Trump’s bank accounts for children, which were set up earlier this year as Trump Accounts.
Just hours earlier, Anthropic had announced the establishment of its Anthropic Public Benefit Fund, “a new wholly-owned entity dedicated entirely to public benefit.” Musk responded by stating he recommended “giving the shares directly to the public,” and that he would be doing it that way.
Just a little bit later, Musk said children across the U.S. would be getting a share from him:
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 19, 2026
There are roughly 70 million children, meaning someone under the age of 18, in the United States, according to the Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. Musk’s ownership of SpaceX stock shows he has around 849 million Class A shares of SpaceX stock, according to filings with the SEC.
Investor's Corner
SpaceX’s biggest earnings test yet lands Tuesday, and Tesla shareholders should be watching
SpaceX reports earnings Tuesday as Wall Street watches AI spending, Starlink growth and Tesla merger
SpaceX reports third quarter results after the market closes Tuesday, with a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET streamed on X, and Tesla follows a day later. Bloomberg consensus, cited by Pepperstone, calls for revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62 billion and adjusted EPS near $0.15. That would be about 65% growth from the second quarter and SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its IPO. Analysts expect roughly $6.4 billion from AI and $4.9 billion from Starlink, which is projected to reach 14.3 million consumer subscribers. Capital spending is forecast at $19.6 billion, leaving free cash flow near negative $11.6 billion.
The numbers matter because SpaceX has spent months trying to win over a skeptical market. It priced its record IPO at $135, spiked to $225.64, then sank near $105 in early August. Friday’s close of $146.03 sits about 28% below the June high. The Q2 report beat on revenue at $7.8 billion and put Starlink at 12 million subscribers, but $18.4 billion of capex hurt the stock. Since then SpaceX reached orbit on Starship Flight 14 with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, agreed to buy 800 MHz spectrum for about $8 billion as part of its Starlink Mobile push, and signed a fourth compute hosting deal in four months worth roughly $13 billion a year from December. Management is targeting more than 2 gigawatts of compute by year end and a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate. Evercore ISI, which raised its target to $275, said the quarter may be judged more on those targets than the reported figures
All of this sits under the Tesla merger question. Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects an all stock deal in which SpaceX buys Tesla at a premium, using reference values of $2.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, and said an announcement would need to come by late October or early November to be voted on at Tesla’s December 6 annual meeting. Barclays estimates Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and 56% of the votes. Musk said in July that combining companies cannot be discussed on an earnings call, but an investor question asking when SpaceX will merge with Tesla is sitting on SpaceX’s Q&A platform, and Teslarati has tracked how the Roadster demo revived the talk.
If a deal happens, Tuesday’s result would effectively set the price Tesla holders would receive. Their shares would convert into SpaceX stock, along with exposure to a company with a heavy investment on AI, while Tesla itself expects 2026 capex above $25 billion. A strong quarter and calmer spending would make that exchange easier to sell. Another round of heavy capex and a falling stock would make it harder.
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