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Tesla’s Bitcoin investment has been a rollercoaster ride of gains and losses
One of the ultimate joyrides as a human is riding a rollercoaster. The anticipation of sitting in the train, waiting for dispatch as you slowly climb up the first gigantic hill, all for the anticipation to break. Suddenly, you’re falling down a 200+ foot drop, awaiting the next rise, which will unequivocally result in another slight drop. A short time later, you’re right back to where you started, in a pavilion, waiting to get off of the ride.
Tesla’s Bitcoin investment has been a comparable scenario described above: a meteoric climb, succeeded by a sharp drop, followed by tiny peaks and valleys. Ultimately, Tesla is right back to where it started.
In the company’s 10-Q filing with the SEC earlier today, the electric car company based out of Northern California detailed its tumultuous experience with Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency that could likely be attributed to most of the ranting and raving regarding digital assets. It allowed anyone who can access the document a peek into what kind of swings Tesla has been experiencing through its investment into Bitcoin, which was detailed in the 10-K filing after Q4 2020 results.
Climbing up the first hill
Tesla’s $1.5 billion investment started in the gate and quickly took off up the first hill of gains like a launch rollercoaster. The first hill lasted quite some time, as Bitcoin eclipsed $64,000 and put Tesla up a substantial sum. It is not known how many BTC Tesla received when it initially invested the $1.5 billion, but it is estimated that the price of the crypto was between $29,333 and $37,020. This would put Tesla’s potential holdings at between 37,020 to 51,137 BTC.
It was estimated that Tesla made close to or more than $1 billion as Bitcoin continued to rise in value through the early portion of 2021. According to an April report from Teslarati, “Even if Tesla only acquired the minimal amount of 37,020 Bitcoin in January, the company’s $1.5 billion investment would still be worth $2.3 billion today, hinting at a healthy profit of $800 million,” and that’s figure originates from the possibility of their lowest BTC investment. Tesla said it realized gains of $128 million from its digital assets in March 2021 alone.
After reaching all-time highs of over $64,829, Bitcoin started to tumble, bringing Tesla’s rollercoaster ride down its first and largest hill.
The Big Drop
The big drop occurred as Bitcoin began to slide in mid-May. From May 8th to the 22nd, Bitcoin slid from $58,788 to under $37,500. At one point, BTC even struck the $30,000 range before recovering to $38,000.
The slide was met with uncertainty, worry, and anxiety by many investors. But Musk solidified the fact that Tesla would keep its “diamond hands” and continue holding BTC, despite the volatility experienced during its epic fall.
The company wrote:
“During the three and six months ended June 30, 2021, we recorded $23 million and $50 million, respectively, of impairment losses on such digital assets.”
The Ride: Back to the Beginning
Through the tumultuous ride of the BTC rollercoaster through the first half of 2021, Tesla rode the hills, the turns, and loops and ended up right back where it started (basically). As of June 30, Tesla says the fair market value of such digital assets “was $1.47 billion.” Additionally, the company said that “as of June 30, 2021, the carrying value of our digital assets held was $1.31 billion, which reflects cumulative impairments of $50 million.”
It has been exciting, and it has been uncertain, but Tesla, like the rest of investors, is just along for the ride. Bitcoin’s volatility over the past few months may not have been expected by the diehard cryptocurrency supporters that have vocally supported it since its early days. Still, like anything else, it is an investment. Tesla is banking on a wider adoption of crypto in the coming months and years, something it has dabbled with in the past.
Tesla has its answer to grow its automotive sales over the next few years, TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli says, but it just has to bring it to the U.S.
On Thursday, Michaeli reiterated his $490 price target and the ‘Buy’ rating he already held on Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA). However, its automotive division has struggled to show sequential growth over the past few years, mostly due to its focus on AI and Full Self-Driving. Tesla already axed two of its lower-volume vehicles with the Model S and Model X earlier this year.
However, Tesla does not need to engineer an entire new vehicle to trigger an upward tick in sales; it just has to bring it from China to the U.S., Michaeli said.
He is talking about the Model Y L, a slightly larger version of the all-electric crossover that is already available in China. U.S. customers have been pleading with CEO Elon Musk to bring it to the country since its launch in Asia last year, but he’s not convinced of it because of the advent of self-driving and its importance in this particular market.
The problem is that Tesla owners have been requesting something larger that could fit a typical American family. The Model Y L is slightly larger than the standard Model Y, but some are concerned that it could still be too small to fit what most people might need.
Instead, they have asked for a full-size SUV from Tesla.
Tesla gives big hint that it will build Cyber SUV, smaller Cybertruck
Nevertheless, the Model Y L still presents a great opportunity for Tesla in the U.S., and Michaeli says that there is an additional sales opportunity of about 100,000 units, with demand potential falling somewhere between 60,000 and 135,000 units.
TD Cowen’s note to investors also analyzed that Tesla’s growth could come from a stock perspective as well, positively impacting the stock price, as it has been widely reliant on vehicle sales, even though Tesla has truly phased itself away from that being an important metric.
Tesla stands to gain greatly from the introduction of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if Elon Musk sees it as a viable fit for the market. Families may need to see Tesla bring something larger to the U.S., or they might be forced to buy from another automaker that offers something that fits is needs for more interior space to haul around the kids.
Tesla Hardware 3 owners are set to get a new Full Self-Driving version this month as the company plans to release what it is referring to as v14 Lite.
The rollout is not yet confirmed for June, but Tesla executives have stated on several occasions that this more refined FSD iteration will work with their cars and increase its capabilities.
This comes after Tesla admitted during its last Earnings Call that these Hardware 3 vehicles would not be able to achieve Full Self-Driving, something that they did not know when they bought these cars. We regularly receive messages from Hardware 3 owners asking when v14 Lite will come out, what they should expect, and whether it is worth it to upgrade the self-driving computer or buy a new car altogether.
Following future rollout of FSD V14 Lite for HW3 vehicles in the US, we plan on expanding V14 Lite to additional international markets.
This update ensures that HW3 vehicle owners will continue to benefit from ongoing software updates.
Since international rollout is subject to…
— Tesla (@Tesla) April 29, 2026
It is hard not to feel for them; Tesla CEO Elon Musk said at the company’s 2019 Autonomy Day that all vehicles produced at the time, including Hardware 3 cars, had “all the hardware necessary, compute and otherwise, for Full Self-Driving.”
Musk also said in March of that year that, “Anyone who purchased Full Self-Driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free.”
Anyone who purchased full self-driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free. This is the only change between Autopilot HW2.5 & HW3. Going forward “HW3” will just be called FSD Computer, which is accurate. No change to vehicle sensors or wire harness needed. This is v important. https://t.co/lICMpT7xnX
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 29, 2019
However, during the Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Musk admitted that Hardware 3 vehicles would not be capable of FSD, as “It has only 1/8th the memory bandwidth of Hardware 4, and memory bandwidth is one of the key elements needed for unsupervised FSD.”
Tesla has made some effort to remedy these Hardware 3 owners by offering:
- Discounted trade-ins toward AI4 cars
- Hardware retrofits, which would replace the self-driving computer and upgrade all cameras
- Full Self-Driving v14 Lite
The issue is that many of these owners were led to believe their cars would be capable of unsupervised self-driving. Now, they’re left scrambling for options, and while there are several, they will all require more money out of their pockets.
Expectations for Tesla v14 Lite for Hardware 3 Owners
The big differences between the AI4 v14 and v14 Lite for Hardware 3 owners will stem primarily from hardware constraints. Tesla developed v14 Lite with an optimized frame of mind; the v14 neural nets are toned down to run on an HW3 computer.
Tesla v14 will use the same behavior, but its limits will be hardware-related, especially given that the cameras on HW3 vehicles are lower-resolution.
Tesla reveals its plans for Hardware 3 owners who are eager for updates
This will result in potentially more edge cases due to the lower quality perception and less long-range detection, but reaction time and overall confidence should be more refined.
There should also be a handful of additional features that are available on AI4 cars, such as:
- Starting Full Self-Driving from Park
- Auto Shift
- Streaks
- Speed Profiles
- Improved Dynamics, like Pulling Over for Emergency Vehicles
Tesla plans to release v14 Lite this month, but we are all familiar with how the company can be with timelines. Additionally, if v14 Lite has not proven to be ready for a wide release, Tesla will slam the brakes on the rollout.
We would anticipate that Tesla is testing v14 Lite internally, and likely has been for several months.
Elon Musk
SpaceXAI just launched into your kitchen with their new app
SpaceXAI just powered its first consumer app and it predicts what you want to buy.
SpaceXAI just made its first move into consumer AI, and it involves your grocery cart. On June 3, 2026, Gopuff and SpaceXAI announced the launch of Go, a Grok-powered shopping assistant built directly into the Gopuff app that predicts what you need before you even start searching for it.
Gopuff is an instant delivery platform that operates more than 400 micro-fulfillment centers across the U.S., delivering everyday essentials, snacks, drinks, and household items in as little as 15 minutes. It is not a restaurant delivery app or a marketplace. It owns its inventory, controls its warehouses, and handles its own logistics, which means it has built one of the most detailed consumer behavior datasets in retail over its 13-year history.
Go combines SpaceXAI’s advanced reasoning, voice, and image generation models with Gopuff’s dataset of hundreds of millions of orders and real-time cultural signals from X to prepare a suggested cart the moment a customer opens the app. It learns each shopper’s habits and automatically builds a personalized cart based on time of day, location, order history, and real-time indicators. Returning customers can check out with a single tap.
Rather than searching for specific items, users can describe a situation like a game-day party or the desire for a healthy breakfast and Go will assemble a cart automatically. It can also predict when shoppers are running low on items like coffee or paper towels and have them packed and delivered in under 15 minutes. Grok voice integration lets users talk to the app in plain conversational language and check out completely hands-free.
Gopuff co-founder and co-CEO Yakir Gola said: “Today, we believe the greatest friction left in commerce is not delivery or instantaneous access to the essentials customers need. It’s the moment before: the thinking, the deciding, the remembering. We’re combining Gopuff’s demand intelligence with xAI’s frontier reasoning to create an everyday shopping experience that feels like a true extension of you.”
Why SpaceX just made a $60 billion bet on AI coding ahead of historic IPO
The timing carries context beyond the product launch. SpaceXAI was formed after SpaceX completed an all-stock merger with Elon Musk’s xAI earlier this year, folding one of the most advanced AI labs in the world into the same corporate structure as the company preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. SpaceXAI is dipping into consumer-focused AI just as it prepares for its public debut, and while Musk has openly discussed building an everything app, this launch uses Grok to power another company’s product rather than launching a standalone consumer platform. Every consumer-facing deployment of Grok ahead of the IPO roadshow adds tangible evidence that SpaceXAI is not just an infrastructure play but a direct competitor in the AI application layer where OpenAI and Google are already fighting for dominance.
Tesla has its answer to auto growth, it just has to bring it to the U.S.: analyst
Tesla Hardware 3 owners could be made whole this month
