Investor's Corner
Tesla bull ARK loads up on TSLA shares amid stock slide
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) bull ARK Invest, headed by CEO and CIO Cathie Wood, loaded up on shares of the electric automaker’s stock as it has slid to lower prices over the past few weeks.
According to ARK’s Daily Trade Information, the fund bought 19,272 shares of Tesla, adding onto its massive holdings of the electric automaker’s shares. After the purchase on Friday, ARK now holds 3,566,628 shares of Tesla stock, which makes up 9.99% of its total portfolio. Square Inc. is ARK’s second-largest holding, with 6.28% of the portfolio being made up of the financial company.
ARK’s Tesla holdings are worth $2,132,665,212.60, according to the documents released on Friday.
The purchase of 19,272 additional shares supplements the addition of 130,000 shares in mid-February that were added to several different ARK ETFs. The ARK Innovation ETF bought 89,447 TSLA shares, while the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF added 29,508 Tesla stocks, and the ARK Autonomous Technology and Robotics ETF added 13,173 shares in February.
ARK is one of Tesla’s biggest bulls on Wall Street, holding tremendously high expectations for the electric automaker’s outlook over the next nine years. By 2030, ARK believes that Tesla’s Robotaxi fleet could generate more than $1 trillion in operating revenue, evidently remaining bullish on the automaker despite a recent slide in stock price.
Tesla is down 30.75% over the past month and down 18% on the year. The stock currently sits at $597.95, closing on Friday down 3.78% or $23.49.
Tesla’s 2021 Stock Graph (Google)
After surging to prices as high as $880.02 in January, the stock remained relatively consistent in price until February 8th, when the price began to fall. Some analysts attributed the fall to Tesla’s lack of delivery forecast after the Q4 2020 Earnings Call. While Tesla executives didn’t give a specific figure, they did indicate that they expect 50% growth in deliveries annually, with some years providing more expansion.
A statement during the company’s most recent Earnings Call said that Tesla expects “to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years, we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021.” Additionally, it is difficult to give a specific figure as Tesla is expecting both Giga Berlin and Giga Texas to be completed at some point this year. With both facilities moving along quickly in the construction process, there is no specific time frame when they will be completed, which could be why Tesla did not provide specific delivery goals for 2021.
Many believe this is a temporary setback for Tesla. With expanding demand for the company’s vehicles and its place as the EV leader, Tesla is primed to dominate an expanding sector in the coming years. Dan Ives of Wedbush believes Tesla’s path to victory ultimately lies in China, where competitors are firing on all cylinders to catch up with Elon Musk’s company.
Tesla stock pullback temporary, China demand paves way to $1T market cap, Wedbush says
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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