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Tesla China momentum ‘a positive’ as company navigates new competition
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) had a strong showing in China in May, giving Deutsche Bank a reason to call the company’s performance “a positive” for the company moving forward. However, the Wall Street-based firm has convictions about Tesla’s performance moving forward, according to a new note to investors, as the company will likely face some pushback from Government action and new, local competition.
Figures from the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) revealed a strong performance in May for Tesla. The Model Y all-electric crossover led the charge ahead of its sibling Model 3 sedan. The numbers catalyzed a sigh of relief from Tesla investors, especially those who read The Information’s report claiming orders had halved to below 10,000 units collectively in China in May. The report was met with criticism and skepticism, including some words from CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu, who claimed that May orders wouldn’t have affected May sales figures. Dongshu was correct, as CPCA figures indicated a 29% increase in sales in May compared to April.
The CPCA figures alleviated many concerns, especially those of Deutsche Bank analysts, who revealed in a new note to investors this morning that the strong figures showed healthy demand in both China and Europe, along with hints that Tesla sold its entire Model 3 production capacity in the last two months.
Tesla China sales rise 30% in May, definitively debunks reports of weak demand
The note said (via David Tayar):
“We view May’s data as a positive for Tesla, not only disproving concerns around collapse in demand, but also showing that between local retail sales and exports, Tesla essentially sold its entire Model 3 production capacity in both April and May, and Model Y is ramping up fast in China.”
Deutsche Bank on Tesla/China ??
“We view May’s data as a positive for Tesla, not only disproving concerns around collapse in demand, but also showing that between local retail sales an exports, Tesla essentially sold its entire M3 production capacity in both April/May.”$TSLA pic.twitter.com/o0FMnw0uBG
— David Tayar (@davidtayar5) June 10, 2021
While The Information’s report attributed the weak order figures to “public outcry and government criticism,” Tesla is likely not facing too much of an issue with these two theories, at least for now. However, Deutsche Bank’s note also detailed some concerns that investors may have in the long-term spectacle of Tesla’s Chinese demand.
The firm wrote in its note:
“At the same time, it is unlikely completely eliminate investor concerns that consumer sentiment around Tesla could be losing momentum in China, partly as a result of government action, but also with the rise of local competition. In fact, the article from the Information was supposedly about new orders, rather than sales, so any weakness wouldn’t necessarily have been seen in May sales yet.”
Interestingly, this aligns with Dongshu’s comments about the Information’s report, where the CPCA executive said:
“Usually, monthly sales are accumulated units of orders over previous months, so the immediate results in May might not truly reflect whether the recently reported accidents have had any real impact on Tesla’s sales.”
Tesla has continued a tradition of being one of the most popular automakers in China since its introduction in the market in early 2020. Tesla was the most popular manufacturer in China in 2020, and the only car that has managed to outsell the Model 3 and Model Y is the Wuling HongGuang Mini EV that sells for only $5,000.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
