Investor's Corner

Noted Tesla investor estimates 10,000 Cybertruck deliveries in 2023

Credit: Nattanan Sirivadhanabhakdi/Facebook

The past year has been challenging for Tesla. Despite the company’s efforts to end 2022 on a solid note, vehicle deliveries fell short of expectations. Elon Musk’s activities on Twitter have also made him more polarizing than ever. TSLA stock took a deep dive over the year as well, ending 2022 with a 65% loss. 

But 2023 could be better for Tesla. The company has announced an “Investor Day” in March, which is expected to be an event announcing some of Tesla’s plans and strategies for the future. This year could also be one for the books for Tesla due to the Cybertruck, at least according to TSLA investor and The Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black in comments to The Street

Black noted that he believes Tesla would start Cybertruck deliveries in late 2023. As for the ramp of the all-electric pickup truck, Black estimates that Tesla could accomplish 10,000 deliveries this year. These numbers, according to the Wall Street veteran, could help Tesla achieve about 1.9 million vehicle deliveries in 2023. 

While Black’s estimates may seem extremely optimistic, preparations for the Cybertruck’s production have been ongoing in Gigafactory Texas for some time now. Tesla’s Q3 2022 Update Letter hinted at the Cybertruck’s progress, with the document noting that the vehicle is already in the “tooling” phase. In the succeeding earnings call, Elon Musk commented that Tesla was on the “Final Lap” for the Cybertruck. 

Apart from the Cybertruck, Black also noted that Tesla’s leadership should start transitioning from extremely aspirational goals to optimistic but more realistic ones. In 2022, Tesla noted that it was aiming for about 50% growth, but the company ended the year posting 40% growth instead. A growth of 40% in last year’s environment would have been extremely impressive, save for the fact that the company’s guidance was so much higher. 

As noted by Black, he would “love to see the (Tesla) board respond to what has happened to the stock.” He also stated that the Tesla board needs to “come up with more realistic growth rate like 35%, not 50%.”

Disclosure: I own TSLA shares.

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Noted Tesla investor estimates 10,000 Cybertruck deliveries in 2023
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