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Tesla’s ‘delivery logistics hell’ is an encouraging sign for Q3’s Model 3 production

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Tesla is now on full throttle as it attempts to deliver as many vehicles as it can to Model 3 reservation holders before the end of the third quarter. As the company hits new production levels for the electric car, Tesla is now finding itself facing yet another challenge — a new type of hell, even. As dubbed by Elon Musk in a recent tweet, Tesla has gone from “production hell” straight into “delivery logistics hell.”

Elon Musk was online this Sunday on Twitter, and during his interactions with his followers, he was faced with an inquiry from a Model 3 reservation holder whose delivery had been delayed multiple times. Megan Gale, the reservation holder, noted that her delivery date had been moved four times before she was informed that her Model 3’s handover had been delayed “indefinitely.”

Musk promptly admitted fault, stating that the company is currently facing challenges with delivery logistics. Musk did note, though, that delivery logistics hell is far more tractable than production hell; and thus, Tesla should be able to solve the issue shortly.

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While there are now reservation holders being inconvenienced due to Tesla’s inability to deliver their vehicles on time, the current issue does indicate something notably positive for one of the company’s targets this Q3 — the production numbers of the Model 3. Tesla has announced that it is aiming to produce 50,000-55,000 Model 3 for the third quarter, and just recently, an email from Elon Musk to the company’s employees noted that Tesla would likely build and deliver around twice as many vehicles as it did last quarter.

If Tesla is on track in meeting the milestones Elon Musk outlined in his letter, the company’s delivery centers across the United States are likely experiencing an influx of vehicles at a scale they have never experienced before. For a company that is still finding its legs as a mainstream carmaker, this sudden increase in the number of impending deliveries would likely result in challenges.

This is not to say that Tesla is being caught off guard by its own production numbers. This quarter, the company has implemented programs designed to speed up the delivery process, such as the 5-Minute Sign & Drive delivery program. Unlike Tesla’s old delivery system that involves a thorough walkthrough of its electric cars’ functions, the 5-Minute Sign & Drive system only covers the basics of the vehicles. The electric cars’ more specific features and capabilities are expected to be reviewed by reservation holders prior to the delivery date. Back in July, Elon Musk also noted that Tesla is working on a system that would get rid of paper contracts completely by having customers sign necessary documents online. Musk further noted that in the future, Tesla’s customers should be able to return the electric cars just like any other consumer product, in the event that they are unsatisfied with the vehicle.

There is a lot at stake for Tesla this third quarter. After achieving its then-elusive goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3 per week at the end of Q2 2018, the company has focused itself on the task of pushing Model 3 production even further and ending the quarter as a profitable company. These goals are undoubtedly ambitious, but Tesla seems to have a shot at accomplishing just that. Analysts from Evercore ISI and Worm Capital, for one, have noted that with the right optimizations, Tesla should be able to maintain a steady production rate of 5,000-6,000 Model 3 per week. The Evercore ISI analysts even noted that with minimal CapEx, Tesla should be able to manufacture up to 8,000 Model 3 per week.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla gets its best analysis from Morgan Stanley as ‘it’s all about to change’

He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla has gotten perhaps its best analysis from Morgan Stanley in quite some time, as the Wall Street firm claims that “it’s all about to change.”

That phrase could be used for both the company’s status and the world in general.

Analyst Adam Jonas said in a new note on Thursday to investors that Tesla could be one of the major winners in terms of the global transition from what it is now to what it will be.

He describes the global shift that will occur over the next few years:

“Have you interacted with a robot today? Have you even seen a robot today? No? Well, take a mental picture because it’s all about to change. When we meet someone who has never been in a Waymo or a Tesla Cybercab (which is most people), we frequently see a wince and a response such as ‘I’m not sure I’d feel comfortable getting in a car without a driver.’ We imagine going back in time to 1903 and asking people if they’d feel comfortable in an airplane.’”

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The same technological revolutions that have occurred over the past 150 years will continue to occur again and again. We are on the verge of another, Jonas believes, as companies like Tesla are working on artificial intelligence tech, which includes changing the way we look at things like transportation and labor.

Jonas includes an interesting tidbit in his note about how humanoid robots could change wages, and how it could work into the advantage of Tesla, especially as it is developing its own Optimus robot:

“We estimate 1 humanoid robot at $5/hour can do the work of 2 humans at $25/hour, generating an NPV of approximately $200k/humanoid. 1 robot shaped car can potentially drive down cost/mile of a ride share vehicle to <$0.20 mile (1/10th human-driven ride-share).”

Jonas sees Tesla as a key player in how AI will impact things like manufacturing and various automotive industries, and he believes there is long-term potential for AI, robomobility, and even autonomous eVTOL platforms.

Tesla stock: Morgan Stanley says eVTOL is calling Elon Musk for new chapter

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He maintained its ‘Overweight’ rating and the $410 price target Morgan Stanley had on the stock.

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Tesla stock gets crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk

Musk says this is what it would take to be a millionaire from a Tesla investment right now.

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A red Tesla Roadster driving around a turn
(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got a crazy prediction from CEO Elon Musk recently, as the future of the company seems to be moving more toward AI, autonomy, and robotics, and away from automotive, which is what it has traditionally been recognized as.

Over the past few years, as Tesla has prioritized its Full Self-Driving suite, its rollout of a dedicated Robotaxi program, and the development of the Optimus bot, the company has gained a new reputation from analysts.

It was always looked at as a stock with tremendous potential by many Wall Street firms, some more than others.

The most bullish analysts, like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest, believe the company will eventually reach a multi-trillion-dollar valuation and a share price of over $2,000. Her $2,600 price target does not include any contributions of Optimus. Instead, it leans on Full Self-Driving and Robotaxi.

Tesla tops Cathie Wood’s stock picks, predicts $2,600 surge

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Based on where the company is now, there are a lot of potential catalysts. The Robotaxi expansion, as well as affordable vehicles, its prowess in AI and Robotics, and its powerful energy division are all arguments for investment.

One X user said that a $150,000 investment in Tesla right now would likely make you a millionaire. Musk said he thinks that sentiment is “probably correct.”

He’s echoed this belief in recent earnings calls, including the one for Q2, which happened in July:

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“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

Tesla is trading at $316.50 at the time of writing, and has a market cap of just under $1 trillion.

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Tesla stock gets another analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like it

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company.”

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Credit: CNBC Television/YouTube

Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) got its latest analysis from Jim Cramer, and investors will like what he has to say.

Cramer has flip-flopped his thoughts on Tesla shares many times over the years. One time, he said CEO Elon Musk was a genius; the next, he said Ford stock was a better play. He’s always changing his tune.

However, Cramer’s most recent analysis is of a bullish tone, as he talks about the company’s evolution from an automaker to a tech powerhouse. He made the comments on CNBC’s Mad Money:

“Tesla is morphing right now. It’s in transition from being a car company to being a technology company. You wanna be in there because the tech is worth a lot more than what it’s selling for right now. Don’t care where you bought it, care where it’s going to.”

Tesla has always been looked at by the mainstream media as an automaker. While that is its main business currently, Tesla has always had other divisions: Energy, Solar, Charging, AI, and Robotics. Some came after others, but the important point is that Tesla has not been an automaker exclusively for a decade.

It launched Powerwall and Powerpack in April 2015, marking the start of Tesla Energy.

But Cramer has a point here: Tesla is truly becoming much more than a car company, and it is turning into an AI and overall tech company more than ever before. Eventually, it will be recognized as such, more so than it will be as an automotive company.

Cramer’s comments also follow a recent prediction by Musk, who stated on X that he believes a $150,000 investment in Tesla shares right now would eventually turn someone into a millionaire:

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Musk has said he believes Tesla could be headed to a serious increase in valuation. Eventually, it could become the most valuable company in the world. He said this during the Q2 Earnings Call:

“I do think if Tesla continues to execute well with vehicle autonomy and humanoid robot autonomy, it will be the most valuable company in the world. A lot of execution between here and there. It doesn’t just happen. Provided we execute very well, I think Tesla has a shot at being the most valuable company in the world. Obviously, I am extremely optimistic about the future of the company.”

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