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Tesla shares rise amid positive analyst outlook after Gigafactory tour, Chinese rival’s underwhelming IPO

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Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) are rising on Wednesday’s intraday, trading as high as $291.31 per share amid encouraging updates from analysts after a tour of Gigafactory 1, as well as seemingly improved investor sentiments over the company’s updates in management.

Tesla shares took a big blow last Friday amidst reports of former Chief Accounting Officer David H. Morton’s departure from the company after being on the job for just two months. Chief People Officer Gabrielle Toledano also announced that she would not be returning to the company after her ongoing leave. On top of this, CEO Elon Musk courted controversy once more after he seemingly smoked cannabis during a podcast with comedian Joe Rogan.

Amidst the noise from the latest executive departures and Elon Musk’s most recent controversy, Tesla stock saw some recovery on Monday. Baird analyst Ben Kallo, for one, gave the company a “Buy” rating over what he believed were the company’s improving fundamentals this Q3. Kallo also noted that last Friday’s sharp decline in Tesla stock’s price seemed to be a “mispricing.”

Tuesday saw the release of a note from Worm Capital analysts Eric Markowitz and Dan Crowley, who recently went on a tour of Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. The analysts’ note included several compelling updates from Martin Viecha, head of Tesla’s investor relations, who answered questions about the company’s battery tech, its software, and its upcoming vehicles. Viecha, for one, noted that Tesla is on track to achieve a battery cell cost of $100 per kWh by the end of the year, provided that commodity prices remain stable. The Tesla head of investor relations also stated that Tesla would be receiving machines from Grohmann Engineering which would aid the company in producing batteries more quickly and cost-effectively. Updates for the Tesla Semi and the $35,000 base Model 3 were also given. 

While the encouraging updates from the Worm Capital analysts were noteworthy, investor sentiments appear to be improving for Tesla as well, particularly after it was announced that longtime problem-solver Jerome Guillen would now be serving as the company’s Head of Automotive, reporting directly to Elon Musk. Guillen is among the most hands-on of Tesla’s longtime executives, known for personally responding to early customers of the Model S during the vehicle’s initial rollout. Guillen appears to be a perfect fit for Tesla’s electric car business, and his promotion could serve as a reassurance for investors regarding Elon Musk being overstretched by his workload and responsibilities in the company.

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Wednesday also saw the rather underwhelming IPO of NIO, a highly-anticipated Tesla rival from China. NIO is among the electric car makers that are expected to provide competition to Tesla, to the point where the company’s CEO is fondly dubbed as “The Elon Musk of China.” Among NIO’s first entries into the electric car segment is the ES8, a pure-electric, seven-seater SUV that is seen as a potential rival to the Tesla Model X.

A person familiar with the company’s IPO proceedings informed Reuters that NIO had initially hoped for a valuation of as much as $20 billion. Unfortunately for the company, the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as its ongoing cash burn as it attempted to ramp the ES8’s production, weighed down the electric car maker’s IPO. NIO ultimately priced its shares at $6.26, just above the low end of its $6.25-$8.25 target price range. The company sold $1 billion in shares in the IPO, which still made it the third-largest US listing by a Chinese company this 2018.

Similar to Tesla, NIO incurred a significant net loss during the first half of the year, with the company incurring a net loss of $502.6 million on $6.95 million in revenues in the first six months of 2018. NIO noted that as of the end of August, it had delivered about 1,600 units of the ES8, and it still had another 15,778 unfulfilled reservations for the vehicle.

As of writing, Tesla shares are up 3.3% at $288.66 per share. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours. 

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

NYC Comptroller moves to sue Tesla for securities violations

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

New York City Comptroller Brad Lander is urging the NYC Law Department to sue Tesla for securities violations related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Lander said the basis for the potential litigation lies on “material misstatements from Tesla claiming that CEO Elon Musk spends significant time on the company and is highly active in its management, despite his helming the Trump Administration’s DOGE initiative.”

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It is a common complaint amongst some Tesla shareholders who are less than enthusiastic about Musk’s involvement in DOGE. Some feel as if Musk is not concerned about Tesla, especially as the stock has dropped over 28 percent this year. However, Musk has continued to double down on his position within the U.S. government.

Nevertheless, Musk’s position in Tesla is still very apparent. He headed an All-Hands meeting just two weeks ago that showed his commitment to the company as he outlined future plans and even joked to employees that they should hold onto their stock.

However, Lander believes Musk’s involvement has hurt New York City pension systems, which have lost over $300 million so far this year. He said:

“In less than three months, Tesla stock has lost nearly 40% of its value, with losses over $300 million for the New York City pension systems. We have long expressed concerns that the Tesla board has failed to provide independent oversight, or to require that Musk – or someone else – serve as a full-time CEO.”

Lander went on to say that “material misstatements from Tesla misled investors about his role at the company,” stating this was his reasoning for calling on the Law Department to file securities litigation against the company.

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He believes taking it to court will force changes and will return Tesla shares back to a level that will benefit pension systems in New York City:

“Shareholder litigation could force the changes in governance and leadership that Tesla needs, and help recover some of our pension systems’ losses. Otherwise, we may need to consider divestment.”

The pension systems would be able to pursue financial damages to cover losses and seek governance changes, it says.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) shares company-compiled Q1 2025 delivery consensus

Analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has released its Q1 2025 company-compiled delivery consensus of sell-side analysts. Based on Tesla’s release, it appears that analysts are expecting Tesla to post conservative vehicle delivery results for the first quarter.

Images of Tesla’s Q1 2025 company-compiled consensus were shared recently on social media. 

The Consensus

As could be seen in Tesla’s first quarter 2025 company-compiled vehicle delivery consensus, analysts are expecting the electric car maker to post 377,592 deliveries for Q1 2025. Analysts expect this number to be comprised of 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 other models.

The company-compiled consensus also suggests that Tesla will see total deliveries of 1,851,001 vehicles this Full Year 2025. From this number, analysts expect 1,693,397 units of the Model 3 and Model Y and 145,162 units of Tesla’s other models.

The sources

Tesla’s company-compiled consensus was based on estimates from 27 firms. These include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, Evercore ISI, Barclays, PSC, Mizuho, BofA, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, Guggenheim, JPM, Redburn, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair. 

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FactSet expectations

As noted in an Investor’s Business Daily report, FactSet estimates suggest that Tesla will see vehicle deliveries of 407,900 units in Q1 2025. Such a number is quite optimistic considering that Tesla’s sales of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s transition to the new Model Y. 

Beyond Q1 deliveries, Tesla’s first quarter vehicle delivery results could trigger revisions to the company’s full-year delivery and earnings forecasts. FactSet data shows Q1 earnings estimates hitting 48 cents per share, down from 57 cents in late January and 74 cents late last year. For 2025, analysts now see earnings per share climbing 13% to $2.74, a drop from $3.31 before the Q4 earnings release.

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Elon Musk clarifies Trump tariff effect on Tesla: “The cost impact is not trivial”

The U.S. President has stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s tariffs.

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MINISTÉRIO DAS COMUNICAÇÕES, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to implement a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made vehicles starting next week would affect American electric car maker Tesla. 

This was confirmed by CEO Elon Musk in a recent post on social media platform X.

Musk and Trump

While Elon Musk works closely with the Trump administration due to his role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the U.S. president has emphasized that the Tesla CEO never asks for favors. This was highlighted in his recent comments, when he stated that Elon Musk stayed silent and provided no input in the administration’s 25% auto tariffs.

When asked by reporters if the new tariffs would be good for Tesla, Trump noted that they may be “net neutral or they may be good.” The U.S. president also pointed to Tesla’s automotive plants in Fremont, California and Austin, Texas, which produce vehicles that are sold in the country. “Anybody that has plants in the United States — it’s going to be good for them,” Trump noted.

Tesla Affected

In a post on X, Elon Musk clarified that the Trump administration’s tariffs would affect the prices of vehicle parts that are sourced from other countries. This was a concern that Tesla previously outlined in a letter to the U.S. Trade Representative, which noted that even with “aggressive localization” of its supply chain, “certain parts and components are difficult or impossible to source within the United States.”

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As per Musk in his recent post on X, the cost impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs is no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in his post.

Potential Effects

Reactions to Musk’s comments from users of the social media platform were varied, with some speculating that the Trump auto tariffs could result in Teslas becoming more expensive in the United States. Despite this, the potential increases in Tesla’s vehicle prices might not be as notable as other cars, particularly those that are produced outside the country.

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