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Tesla’s FSD Beta is navigating through roundabouts with great confidence
Ever since Tesla rolled out its Full Self-Driving Beta last week, the lucky group of individuals who have been sharing the new system’s capabilities are proving that Autopilot has improved significantly. Previously challenging tasks for the 2.5-dimension Autopilot versions are no longer a tough task thanks to a 4D comprehension of surroundings, which are a preview of what is to come with Tesla’s upcoming “Dojo” Supercomputer.
Tesla owners who have had FSD for some time know that the capabilities of the self-driving suite were somewhat limited. Everyone who purchased FSD knew it was a work in progress, and by driving with the capability activated, it was becoming more sophisticated with the help of Tesla’s Neural Network. However, the Tesla Artificial Intelligence team knew what had to be done: the amount of information that could be processed needed to be greater, and the vehicle’s comprehension of its surroundings needed to be more complex. Therefore, Tesla is developing Dojo.
Dojo is Tesla’s Neural Network training program that aims to begin breaking down data in 4D instead of “~2.5D,” which is what the automaker’s Autopilot was previously using.
Tesla’s Elon Musk details Dojo, Autopilot’s 4D training program
Musk detailed the need for a more complex autonomy system during the Q2 2020 Earnings Call:
“Well, the actual major milestone that’s happening right now is really a transition of the autonomy system or the cars, like AI, if you will, from thinking about things in — like two-and-a-half feet. It’s like think — things like isolated pictures and doing image recognition on pictures that are harshly correlated in time but not very well and transitioning to kind of a 4D, where it’s like — which is video essentially.”
The issue with previous FSD and Autopilot builds was that not enough information was being transmitted through pictures. There needed to be timestamps and more accuracy through an increasingly fluid comprehension of the surroundings. The key was to transition from images, or 2D, as Musk called it, to video, or 4D.
“So what we’ve been doing, thus far, has really just been like 2D — mostly 2D, and like I said, well correlated in time. So just hard to convey just how much better a fully 4D system would work — does work. It’s capable of things that if you just look — looking at things as individual pictures as opposed to video — basically, like you could go from like individual pictures to surround video, so it’s fundamental. So the car will seem to have just like a giant improvement.”
Roundabout Navigation
One way to show how the new system is operating more efficiently is a Tesla’s navigation of a roundabout. Musk stated that it would be able to handle roundabouts “not perfectly at first,” but it would be able to navigate through them.
Not perfectly at first, but yes. Will take maybe a year or so to get really good at roundabouts worldwide. The world has a zillion weird corner cases.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 14, 2020
Previous versions of Autopilot have had difficulties navigating through roundabouts, and very rarely did they manage to get through one without human intervention. An example can be seen in a July 2019 video from YouTuber Dirty Tesla, who showed his Model 3 attempting to go through the tricky stretch of roadway. At the 3:25 mark of the video, you can see the Model 3 doesn’t do a great job of making it through, and the driver is forced to intervene with the vehicle.
Tesla’s FSD Beta is proving that an increase in comprehension is just what Tesla Autopilot needed to function more accurately. A video from fellow Tesla Model 3 owner James Locke, who received the FSD Beta, shows the navigation through a roundabout with relative ease. Even Locke was impressed and stated that the maneuver required no intervention from him, and Autopilot took care of the entire process independently.
Dojo’s coming release in conjunction with the new FSD Beta could prove to be the answer to all of the issues that Tesla had previously. With a new, more complex system that takes in more information on terrain, surroundings, and obstacles, Autopilot is more accurate than ever before. The increase in capability is being displayed daily as new videos of the FSD Beta are being rolled out regularly.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
