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Tesla “ecosystem” of product and services are redefining the auto business

PHOTO CREDIT: MEDIAPOST VIA TANYA GAZDIK

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Tesla’s original mission was to electrify the world’s transportation system. Along the way, that expanded into a reboot of the entire automotive industry. By the time it’s all over, Tesla will have redefined not just the way cars are fueled, but the way they are designed, manufactured, marketed and sold.

From the company’s emphasis on self-driving capabilities to its treatment of the vehicle as a computer system, with a unified operating system and over-the-air software updates, Tesla has made important advances, and the lessons have not been entirely lost on the legacy automakers. There are already signs that the Tesla way of doing things is starting to influence the global giants in several areas.

Like other tech pioneers such as Apple, Tesla sees the automobile as part of an “ecosystem” of products and services, and forward-looking execs at other automakers are beginning to see things this way too. The electric vehicle will not be simply a plug-in replacement for the legacy gas-burner, but rather a part of a new paradigm that includes charging infrastructure, vehicle autonomy, new ownership models and renewable energy. Automakers around the world are investing in charging networks, makers of self-driving tech and transportation service providers like Uber and Lyft. Some have explored partnering with solar installers to offer package deals to customers.

Also like Apple, Tesla understands that it isn’t selling just a product, but rather an “ownership experience.” When you look at automobile ownership as an overall experience, you’re bound to come to the conclusion that there are certain parts of the experience that people really dislike, and smarmy car salesmen are near the top of the list. Another obvious conclusion is that the car buying experience is hopelessly outdated.

We’ve been banking online for decades and buying consumer goods without setting foot in a store. Even the process of buying and selling real estate has moved online to a great extent. When it comes to buying a car, however, we still have to drive all the way out to the airport road and endure a long and tedious sales ritual that hasn’t changed much since the 1960s.

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Tesla’s efforts to make car-buying more pleasant date all the way back to the Roadster days, as former Tesla VP George Blankenship explained in depth in a recent talk. The company’s direct-to-consumer sales model is loved by auto buyers, hated by politically powerful auto dealers, and surely envied by the legacy automakers who, for better or for worse, are firmly bonded both legally and financially to their existing system of independent dealerships.

The Tesla sales model saves money by cutting out the middleman, it gives the company near-total control over the way its vehicles are presented to buyers, and it gives buyers a direct relationship with the automaker. As a recent article in Fortune points out, it also delivers another unprecedented benefit: it brings buyers (and their money) into the car-buying process before the company builds a single vehicle.

“They managed to sell so many Model 3s, even before the Model 3 was in its final design stages,” says Tim Huntzinger, an automotive designer who teaches at the ArtCenter College of Design in California. “It was almost like they were doing Kickstarter for cars. They were able to bring in hundreds of millions in revenue before actually creating final tooling for the vehicle.”

“That’s huge for the automotive industry,” said Huntzinger. “For the entire history of the automotive industry, you had to spend millions or hundreds of millions to even turn a cent. Many companies have gone out of business that way.”

And the benefits of this system don’t just flow one way – Huntzinger believes that buyers are empowered by being involved in the process earlier. “To get feedback from customers early in the process – that’s totally new and totally different. The purchasing experience is so different [from what] we’ve all been forced into with the dealership model. It’s super-refreshing to see the customer being put first.”

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Note: Article originally published on evannex.com, by Charles Morris

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst says this stock concern is overblown while maintaining $400 PT

Tesla reported $2.763 billion in regulatory credit profits last year.

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Credit: Tesla

One Tesla analyst is saying that a major stock concern that has been discussed as the Trump administration aims to eliminate many financial crutches for EV and sustainable industries is overblown.

As the White House continues to put an emphasis on natural gas, coal, and other fossil fuels, investors are concerned that high-powered sustainability stocks like Tesla stand to take big hits over the coming years.

However, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter believes it is just the opposite, as a new note to investors released on Monday says that the situation, especially regarding regulatory credits, is “not as bad as you think.”

Tesla stacked emissions credits in 2023, while others posted deficits

There have been many things during the Trump administration so far that have led some investors to consider divesting from Tesla altogether. Many people have shied away due to concerns over demand, as the $7,500 new EV tax credit and $4,000 used EV tax credit will bow out at the end of Q3.

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The Trump White House could also do away with emissions credits, which aim to give automakers a threshold of emissions to encourage EV production and cleaner powertrains. Companies that cannot meet this threshold can buy credits from other companies, and Tesla has benefitted from this program immensely over the past few years.

As the Trump administration considers eliminating this program, investors are concerned that it could significantly impact Tesla’s balance sheet. Potter believes the issue is overblown:

“We frequently receive questions about Tesla’s regulatory credits, and for good reason: the company received ~$3.5B in ‘free money’ last year, representing roughly 100% of FY24 free cash flow. So it’s fair to ask: will recent regulatory changes threaten Tesla’s earnings outlook? In short, we think the answer is no, at least not in 2025. We think that while it’s true that the U.S. government is committed to rescinding financial support for the EV and battery industries, Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026. This latter figure represents a modest reduction vs. our previous expectation…in our view, there’s no need for drastic estimate revisions. Note that it’s difficult to forecast the financial impact of regulatory credits — even Tesla itself struggles with this — but the attached analysis represents an honest effort.”

Tesla’s regulatory credit profitability by year is:

  • 2020: $1.58 billion
  • 2021: $1.465 billion
  • 2022: $1.776 billion
  • 2023: $1.79 billion
  • 2024: $2.763 billion

Potter and Piper Sandler maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, and kept their $400 price target.

Tesla shares are trading at $329.63 at 11:39 a.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love

Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.

This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.

Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas

The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.

The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.

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Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:

“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”

Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.

Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.

Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.

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Tesla could save $2.5B by replacing 10% of staff with Optimus: Morgan Stanley

Jonas assigned each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

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Credit: Tesla Optimus/X

Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) near-term outlook may be clouded by political controversies and regulatory headwinds, but Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas sees a glimmer of opportunity for the electric vehicle maker. 

In a new note, the Morgan Stanley analyst estimated that Tesla could save $2.5 billion by replacing just 10% of its workforce with its Optimus robots, assigning each robot a net present value (NPV) of $200,000.

Morgan Stanley highlights Optimus’ savings potential

Jonas highlighted the potential savings on Tesla’s workforce of 125,665 employees in his note, suggesting that the utilization of Optimus robots could significantly reduce labor costs. The analyst’s note arrived shortly after Tesla reported Q2 2025 deliveries of 384,122 vehicles, which came close to Morgan Stanley’s estimate and slightly under the consensus of 385,086.

“Tesla has 125,665 employees worldwide (year-end 2024). On our calculations, a 10% substitution to humanoid at approximately ($200k NPV/humanoid) could be worth approximately $2.5bn,” Jonas wrote, as noted by Street Insider.

Jonas also issued some caution on Tesla Energy, whose battery storage deployments were flat year over year at 9.6 GWh. Morgan Stanley had expected Tesla Energy to post battery storage deployments of 14 GWh in the second quarter.

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Musk’s political ambitions

The backdrop to Jonas’ note included Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. politics. The Tesla CEO recently floated the idea of launching a new political party, following a poll on X that showed support for the idea. Though a widely circulated FEC filing was labeled false by Musk, the CEO does seem intent on establishing a third political party in the United States. 

Jonas cautioned that Musk’s political efforts could divert attention and resources from Tesla’s core operations, adding near-term pressure on TSLA stock. “We believe investors should be prepared for further devotion of resources (financial, time/attention) in the direction of Mr. Musk’s political priorities which may add further near-term pressure to TSLA shares,” Jonas stated.

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