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Investor's Corner

Is it time for Tesla to partner up with another automaker? I think so.

Tesla’s Elon Musk and Toyota’s Akio Toyoda shaking hands in Palo Alto, CA cir. 2010. [Credit: Associated Press]

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Tesla’s stock has continued to slide over the last month, and not for one particular reason. The company has, by far, the best electric vehicles in the world, with the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 leading their segments by miles. Despite this, investors believe that the company is under immense pressure.

Elon Musk hasn’t really gotten the message. He’s plowing ahead with the multi-billion dollar Gigafactory in China, aggressively expanding the Model 3 to new countries, and doubling down on commitments to the super-delayed (but incredible) solar roof. Most other executives would throttle back expansion, allowing the company to widen profits and make investors happy. Musk isn’t like most executives (if you didn’t know that already?). He ignores the idea of ‘corporate strategy,’ and is far more interested in pushing the limit on what is possible. But, with over 40,000 employees and annualized production nearing 400,000 units, the company is entering a period in time in which long-term strategic planning would add tremendous value.

Time to deploy some strategery.

Let’s start with the Model Y. Or I should say, let’s begin with Tesla’s most important vehicle. The SUV market is exploding, and it’s not showing any signs of slowing down. The global SUV market grew from 9.8M units in 2013 to an estimated 23.8M units in 2020. That’s nearly 14% annualized growth over the last seven years. While Tesla has the Model X, it’s priced well above the average consumer’s budget and targets the highest-end of the market.

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On the other hand, the Model Y is poised to enter the hottest market in the world: mid-sized crossovers. With world-class technology and an affordable price, it is certainly going to be Tesla’s most popular vehicle. To meet demand, Tesla is going to need to scale production faster and more efficiently than ever before. The only problem? Tesla is already busting out of their massive Fremont facility, and their new facility in China will likely only feed the Asian market (remember the last Chinese-built car you saw on US or European roads? Me neither).

So what does the company do? Build a car in the Gigafactory? Expand Fremont further? Both options aren’t cheap or super fast. Well, let’s jump back to that point I made about long-term corporate strategy. Tesla is at a point where it can’t afford (without raising more cash) to start construction on another US or European factory, the company is already building a Chinese factory to meet existing demand is near cash-strapped. So what should they do? It’s time to partner up with another automaker, specifically Fiat Chrysler.

An Unlikely Marriage.

Fiat Chrysler (FCA) is one of the only automakers holding out on large investments into EV technology, GM is betting big and VW is betting even bigger. With Tesla’s cutting edge motor and battery technology, FCA could leap ahead of their rivals and electrify their fleet. First, the company could start by underpinning a vehicle -platform with Tesla’s powertrain, bringing more scale to Tesla battery operations and forgoing the multi-billion dollar expansion into the technology. Automakers have done these sort of partnerships for years. FCA already shares some diesel engines with GM, Daimler has borrowed VW engines, and most recently Toyota is borrowing a BMW engine for the iconic Supra.

(Photos: Tesla, Ram; Graphic: Christian Prenzler)

So what’s in it for Tesla? Let’s start with the main stage: cash. Musk isn’t interested in slowing down his global expansion, and he shouldn’t be. The company has tremendous demand and is on the cusp of launching several new products: Model Y, Semi, Roadster, and the Solar Roof. A large infusion of cash would allow the company to continue pushing the pedal to the metal. FCA has over $12B in cash, so the company could invest several billion dollars into Tesla. Outside of cash, FCA can lend some much-needed expertise in manufacturing and even some production capacity at one of the company’s two-dozen factories in North America.

I get it, teaming up with FCA doesn’t sound S3XY. But by teaming up with one of the largest automakers, Tesla gains a leg up in manufacturing and an infusion of cash that would allow Musk to continue investing heavily in expansion. What did you think of Tesla partnering with FCA?

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Disclaimer: This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Teslarati and its owners. Christian Prenzler does not have a position in Tesla Inc. or any of its competitors and does not have plans to do so in the next 30 days.

Christian Prenzler is currently the VP of Business Development at Teslarati, leading strategic partnerships, content development, email newsletters, and subscription programs. Additionally, Christian thoroughly enjoys investigating pivotal moments in the emerging mobility sector and sharing these stories with Teslarati's readers. He has been closely following and writing on Tesla and disruptive technology for over seven years. You can contact Christian here: christian@teslarati.com

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

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It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

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It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

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We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

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Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

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“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

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Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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Investor's Corner

Elon Musk issues dire warning to Tesla (TSLA) shorts

This time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has issued a dire warning to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) short sellers. If they do not exit their position by the time Tesla attains autonomy, pain will follow. 

Musk has shared similar statements in the past, but this time around, Tesla shorts should probably heed his words.

Musk’s short warning

The Tesla CEO’s recent statement came as a response to Tesla retail shareholder and advocate Alexandra Merz, who shared a list of the electric vehicle maker’s short-sellers. These include MUFG Securities EMEA, Jane Street Group, Clean Energy Transition LLP, and Citadel Advisors, among others. As per the retail investor, some of Tesla’s short-sellers, such as Banque Pictet, have been decreasing their short position as of late.

In his reply, Elon Musk stated that Tesla shorts are on borrowed time. As per the CEO, TSLA shorts would be wise to exit their short position before autonomy is reached. If they do not, they will be wiped out. “If they don’t exit their short position before Tesla reaches autonomy at scale, they will be obliterated,” Musk wrote in his post.

Tesla’s autonomous program

Tesla short sellers typically disregard the progress that the company is making on its FSD program, which is currently being used in pilot ride-hailing programs in Austin and the Bay Area. While Tesla has taken longer than expected to attain autonomy, and while Musk himself admits to becoming the boy who cried FSD for years, autonomy does seem to be at hand this year. Tesla’s Unsupervised FSD is being used in Robotaxi services, and FSD V14 is poised to be released soon as well.

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Elon Musk highlighted this in a response to X user Ian N, who noted that numerous automakers such as Audi, BMW, Fiat-Chrysler, Ford, GM, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Toyota have all promised and failed in delivering autonomous systems for their vehicles. Thus, Tesla might be very late in the release of its autonomous features, but the company is by far the only automaker that is delivering on its promises today. Musk agreed with this notion, posting that “I might be late, but I always deliver in the end.”

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