Investor's Corner
Is it time for Tesla to partner up with another automaker? I think so.
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Tesla’s stock has continued to slide over the last month, and not for one particular reason. The company has, by far, the best electric vehicles in the world, with the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 leading their segments by miles. Despite this, investors believe that the company is under immense pressure.
Elon Musk hasn’t really gotten the message. He’s plowing ahead with the multi-billion dollar Gigafactory in China, aggressively expanding the Model 3 to new countries, and doubling down on commitments to the super-delayed (but incredible) solar roof. Most other executives would throttle back expansion, allowing the company to widen profits and make investors happy. Musk isn’t like most executives (if you didn’t know that already?). He ignores the idea of ‘corporate strategy,’ and is far more interested in pushing the limit on what is possible. But, with over 40,000 employees and annualized production nearing 400,000 units, the company is entering a period in time in which long-term strategic planning would add tremendous value.
Time to deploy some strategery.
Let’s start with the Model Y. Or I should say, let’s begin with Tesla’s most important vehicle. The SUV market is exploding, and it’s not showing any signs of slowing down. The global SUV market grew from 9.8M units in 2013 to an estimated 23.8M units in 2020. That’s nearly 14% annualized growth over the last seven years. While Tesla has the Model X, it’s priced well above the average consumer’s budget and targets the highest-end of the market.
On the other hand, the Model Y is poised to enter the hottest market in the world: mid-sized crossovers. With world-class technology and an affordable price, it is certainly going to be Tesla’s most popular vehicle. To meet demand, Tesla is going to need to scale production faster and more efficiently than ever before. The only problem? Tesla is already busting out of their massive Fremont facility, and their new facility in China will likely only feed the Asian market (remember the last Chinese-built car you saw on US or European roads? Me neither).
So what does the company do? Build a car in the Gigafactory? Expand Fremont further? Both options aren’t cheap or super fast. Well, let’s jump back to that point I made about long-term corporate strategy. Tesla is at a point where it can’t afford (without raising more cash) to start construction on another US or European factory, the company is already building a Chinese factory to meet existing demand is near cash-strapped. So what should they do? It’s time to partner up with another automaker, specifically Fiat Chrysler.
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An Unlikely Marriage.
Fiat Chrysler (FCA) is one of the only automakers holding out on large investments into EV technology, GM is betting big and VW is betting even bigger. With Tesla’s cutting edge motor and battery technology, FCA could leap ahead of their rivals and electrify their fleet. First, the company could start by underpinning a vehicle -platform with Tesla’s powertrain, bringing more scale to Tesla battery operations and forgoing the multi-billion dollar expansion into the technology. Automakers have done these sort of partnerships for years. FCA already shares some diesel engines with GM, Daimler has borrowed VW engines, and most recently Toyota is borrowing a BMW engine for the iconic Supra.
(Photos: Tesla, Ram; Graphic: Christian Prenzler)
So what’s in it for Tesla? Let’s start with the main stage: cash. Musk isn’t interested in slowing down his global expansion, and he shouldn’t be. The company has tremendous demand and is on the cusp of launching several new products: Model Y, Semi, Roadster, and the Solar Roof. A large infusion of cash would allow the company to continue pushing the pedal to the metal. FCA has over $12B in cash, so the company could invest several billion dollars into Tesla. Outside of cash, FCA can lend some much-needed expertise in manufacturing and even some production capacity at one of the company’s two-dozen factories in North America.
I get it, teaming up with FCA doesn’t sound S3XY. But by teaming up with one of the largest automakers, Tesla gains a leg up in manufacturing and an infusion of cash that would allow Musk to continue investing heavily in expansion. What did you think of Tesla partnering with FCA?
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Disclaimer: This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Teslarati and its owners. Christian Prenzler does not have a position in Tesla Inc. or any of its competitors and does not have plans to do so in the next 30 days.
In a new note to investors on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco said that Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors regarding its Robotaxi rollout, Full Self-Driving software, and Optimus.
Percoco said in the note that, for the most part, investors are still very positive about the direction the company is headed. However, there are some things the firm would like to see, and they have to do with financials.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Tesla bulls are more than convinced that the company’s Full Self-Driving software is proof it can develop physical AI. Financially, however, there are still some questions, especially on elevated spending, which CEO Elon Musk said would occur as the company works to roll out Robotaxi faster and continue developing its Optimus robot.
The latter two are where Tesla will have to prove progress to investors, as Percoco writes that both projects “will require clearer evidence that Robotaxi is scaling and more tangible Optimus proof points to support the ROI on elevated capex.”
Percoco said the second quarter earnings call did not change his long-term thesis of where Tesla is positioned in the AI race, which is out in front. However, there are concerns that weaker gross margins and higher R&D spend will stress financials, and that has “sharpened our (and investors’) focus on measurable progress across Robotaxi and Optimus.”
Additionally, Robotaxi still needs to be proven with more operation in existing cities while maintaining safety but improving how many rides it gives in any given time, he said. For Optimus, Percoco wrote that he is “still looking for evidence beyond commentary around SOP.”
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Morgan Stanley put Percoco in charge of covering Tesla after long-time analyst Adam Jonas transitioned to the automotive side.
Currently, Morgan Stanley has a $415 price target on Tesla and a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. It is trading at around $330 at the time of publication, which was 2:30 P.M. on the East Coast.
SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
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High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
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Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
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Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
