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Tesla, other carmakers’ EV output could ‘vastly outweigh consumer demand’ by 2030: study
With electric vehicles steadily improving and with large markets such as Europe and China embracing sustainable transport, the market for green cars has seen a notable rise. In 2018 alone, two million electric vehicles were sold globally, and all signs point to further growth ahead. In a recent analysis, research firm Deloitte noted that over the next decade, there would probably be an additional 21 million EVs driving on roads across the globe.
Deloitte expects the adoption of electric vehicles to become more widespread in the coming years. From two million in 2018, the research firm expects 4 million EVs to be sold by 2020. By 2025, Deloitte expects global EV sales to hit 12 million. By 2030, the research firm estimates electric vehicle adoption to rise to 21 million units, with battery-electric vehicles such as Tesla’s Model S, 3, and X accounting for roughly 70% of the global auto market’s total EV sales.
Deloitte’s analysis notes that two notable factors primarily drive this strong EV adoption trend. One, there is a growing demand for well-rounded electric vehicles like the Tesla Model 3. Two, government policies from key markets such as Europe and China are becoming more favorable for EVs and EV-buyers, including inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel-powered cars.
While electric cars today are still weighed down by their prices, Deloitte’s research suggests that EVs would likely reach cost parity with gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles by 2024. Supported with government subsidies and augmented by technological advances such as Tesla’s ever-evolving driver-assist Autopilot features, the research firm estimates that cost parity with internal combustion-powered cars could be achieved as early as 2021. Michael Woodward, UK automotive partner at Deloitte, explained the firm’s findings as follows.
“In 2018, we saw global EV sales surpass two million units for the first time; twice those sold in 2017. In the UK, the cost of petrol and diesel vehicle ownership will converge with electric over the next five years. Supported by existing government subsidies and technology advances, this tipping point could be reached as early as 2021. From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers,” he said.
While Deloitte’s conclusions invoke an air of optimism for the electric car market, though, the research firm’s UK automotive partner warns that there would likely be a point where supply would exceed the demand for electric vehicles. The firm’s research also warns that the number of new and legacy auto manufacturers entering the EV market over the next years would eventually be “unsustainable.”
“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one. As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape. Those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this. Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important.”
In a way, the conclusions drawn by Deloitte are a bit strange, since the firm seems to be suggesting that the global demand for electric cars would roughly peak at 21 million a year. Considering that the overall auto market is far larger than 21 million vehicles per year (Statista estimates that over 80 million cars were sold in 2018 alone), the study appears to be suggesting that the demand for gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles would remain steady long after EVs reach cost parity. This is a pretty liberal assumption, which ignores the idea of car buyers completely committing to electric transportation once they try out a premium EV.
Tesla’s growth and triumphs over the years had all but proved that there is a very real demand for premium electric cars in the market. With the release of potentially disruptive vehicles such as the Model Y SUV, the Tesla pickup truck, and the Tesla Semi, the market’s acceptance of electric cars as a preferred form of transportation would likely be even more pronounced. As more car buyers transition to EVs, it would not be too farfetched to assume that the demand for electric cars could far exceed 21 million vehicles per year long after 2030.
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Tesla Model 3 filings in China show interesting hardware addition
The addition of a front bumper camera to the Tesla Model 3 is a big upgrade from a hardware perspective.
Tesla Model 3 filings in China are showing the vehicle could get a very interesting hardware addition, one that was not included on the “Highland” update when it rolled out to customers a year and a half ago.
The Model 3 Highland is Tesla’s updated version of the all-electric sedan, and was launched across the world in early 2024. It featured a variety of updates, including new exterior and interior designs.
However, there were a few things missing from the update that surprised Tesla fans because they were included on other cars.
One of them was the lack of a front bumper camera, a hardware piece that was included on other vehicles within the company’s lineup, including the Model Y Juniper, an updated version of the all-electric crossover that launched earlier this year.
Now, it seems Tesla is preparing to implement that front camera on the Model 3, as new filings with China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) showed the car with the addition:
🔥🔥 Tesla will soon add a front bumper camera to the Model 3!
The images confirming this upgrade were leaked on the official website of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
H/t @kas12323 pic.twitter.com/ieRv9wiwOK
— The Tesla Newswire (@TeslaNewswire) August 8, 2025
The front bumper camera is a small but powerful addition to Tesla vehicles. It not only enhances visibility for simple tasks like parking, helping avoid things like curbs, but it also helps provide a wider field of view directly in front of the car.
It is also a crucial part of the Full Self-Driving and Autopilot suites, helping provide yet another angle of vision for the vehicle as Tesla makes its suite more robust. It is already improving through software upgrades and data collection, but it could always use additional hardware to enhance accuracy.
A Model 3 Highland test mule was spotted near Boston, Massachusetts, back in May with a variety of additional cameras equipped. Some believed this was a vehicle that was assisting with collecting training data.
Tesla is testing a Model 3 with some mysterious cameras in the U.S.
However, it could be a sign of Tesla planning to add this piece of hardware to a slightly updated version of the new Model 3 that could come to production in various markets in the near future.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk details massive FSD update set for September release
“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk detailed the changes that are expected to come with a massive Full Self-Driving (FSD) update, which is set to roll out sometime in September, he revealed earlier this week.
Tesla has been refining its FSD suite for years, but it has never been as good as it is now. The focus is to get the suite to a point where interventions are no longer needed and drivers simply become passengers, as they will not be responsible for paying attention to the road.
Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming
That version of FSD will come eventually, but not next month. However, there are dramatic improvements that will come with next month’s FSD update that will roll out to the public, Musk said:
“The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions.”
The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 8, 2025
Additionally, he provided specific details on what would change, hinting that the need for a driver to pay attention will be “substantially reduced,” but there are some “complex intersections, heavy weather, or unusual events” that will still require drivers to assume responsibility for the car:
“This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.”
This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.
Note, the Austin robotaxi FSD build is ~6 months more advanced than what is available in cars in America and there are…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 8, 2025
We have been teased about these types of updates before, but usually they involve some kind of mention of FSD being ready for unsupervised driving “by the end of the year.” Musk did not mention that here.
There is also the fact that Tesla has another FSD build in Austin for the Robotaxi suite that is more advanced than what is available to the public. It has performed well, Musk says, making claims that there are times when it feels “eerily human.”
Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer
The improvements in FSD capabilities in subsequent releases are usually very evident. As Tesla continues to refine the suite for the public, it gains more confidence and becomes smarter through the collection of data and the use of neural networks.
The only thing left to wait for is the release itself, and we are hopeful it will roll out to the public in September, as Musk says.
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Tesla Model Y L’s impressive specs surface in China’s recent MIIT filing
The Tesla Model Y L is expected to launch later this year.
The specs of the upcoming Tesla Model Y L has appeared in new Chinese regulatory filings, revealing key specifications including a six-seat layout and an extended range of up to 751 kilometers. The variant is expected to launch later this year alongside a new long-range Model 3 variant rated at 830 kilometers.
The updates were listed on the China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s (MIIT) latest batch of new energy vehicle models that are eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions.
Model Y L to debut with larger battery, six-seat layout
Listed under the model code TSL6500BEVBA0, the Model Y L will feature dual motors producing 142 kW at the front and 198 kW at the rear. It will be powered by a 465-kilogram 82.0-kWh lithium-ion battery from LG Energy Solution, with a pack energy density of 176 Wh/kg, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The long-range crossover achieves 751 km on the lenient CLTC cycle, making it Tesla’s highest-range Model Y to date in China despite its curb weight of 2,088 kg.
The “L” designation is believed to refer to the vehicle’s larger size and seating configuration, as the new variant is listed with six seats. It builds on Tesla’s strategy to diversify offerings in the Model Y lineup, which currently includes both RWD and AWD five-seat versions.
Model 3+ breaks record with 830 km CLTC range
Alongside the Model Y L, Tesla China also registered a new rear-wheel-drive Model 3, which was designated with the model code TSL7000BEVBR1. The vehicle boasts either 800 or 830 km of range on the CLTC cycle, depending on its trim. This marks the highest range yet for any Tesla vehicle in China.
The variant will use a 448-kilogram, 78.4-kWh LG-supplied battery with an energy density of 175 Wh/kg and a peak motor output of 225 kW. The vehicle’s curb weight is listed at 1,760 kg. The model was previously identified in filings as “Model 3+,” hinting at a possible tier above the existing long-range variant, which tops out at 753 km CLTC.
Tesla Model 3 filings in China show interesting hardware addition
Tesla CEO Elon Musk details massive FSD update set for September release
Tesla Model Y L’s impressive specs surface in China’s recent MIIT filing
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