Investor's Corner
Tesla remains volatile despite international Model 3 ramp, analysts’ optimistic outlook for 2019
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) saw a steep, over 12% dive on Friday amidst news of a new round of layoffs and Elon Musk’s rather cautious tone about the company’s profitability in the fourth quarter and Q1 2019. As trading opened on Tuesday, TSLA stock seemed as volatile as ever, briefly showing some recovery after the opening bell before dipping into the red soon after.
In a way, the behavior of Tesla stock on Friday (and this Tuesday as of writing) was a bit strange. Not long after the company shared Elon Musk’s email explaining his reasons behind the 7% layoffs, after all, a number of Wall Street analysts covering the electric car maker expressed an optimistic view on Tesla, particularly as the company is now aiming to start breaching the international market with the Model 3, its most disruptive vehicle to date.
During a segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box, for one, Oppenheimer senior research analyst Colin Rusch, who has a $418 price target on the company, noted that Tesla’s recent job cuts were unsurprising and a likely sign of optimization.
“It’s not a huge surprise to see this. This looks to us like a mix of a proactive move in terms of cutting costs, … but also a bit of cleanup on the kind of massive push to get the Model 3 out this year. You never want to see a growth company cutting staff like this, but we’re not overly concerned,” Rusch said.
In a note to investors, Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois, who has a $450 price target on TSLA, stated that the company’s reduced workforce suggests breakthroughs in productivity.
“Reducing headcount also suggests productivity gains. This is, in our view, (is) consistent with slower growth rates but mostly the scope to improve productivity and flow that we identified during our visit to the Fremont plant mid-November 2018,” the analyst said.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo, a longtime TSLA bull with a price target of $465 per share, noted that cost management would be crucial this 2019 as “Tesla transitions to its next phase of growth.” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who has a price target of $440 per share, stated that “Tesla will be able to emerge from the next 12 to 18 months” as an electric car maker that is stronger and more profitable.
Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer, who has a $323 price target on TSLA, was more pronounced in his optimism for the company, stating that with the recent job cuts, “Tesla’s business is now set up for a more auspicious 2019.” Consumer Edge analyst Derek Glynn, who has a $350 price target on Tesla, noted that Elon Musk’s recent email suggested that “management is focused on achieving profitability each quarter after years of operating at significant losses.”
Former Tesla board member Steve Westly also took a similar stance, stating that the 7% job cuts are a sign that Elon Musk and Tesla’s management are taking the initiative to “right-size” the company and optimize it its more challenging, more ambitious future endeavors. This, according to Westly, gives the company a notable edge in the electric vehicle market.
“He is moving faster than anybody else, going global faster than anybody else, and today, Tesla is essentially the iPhone of the electric-car market. They’ve won the North American premium market race. The challenge now is to win the mass market, to go international. I think he is preparing the company to do that. I wouldn’t bet against him,” the former Tesla board member said.
That said, not everyone on Wall Street believes that Tesla’s recent job cuts bode well for the company. Citigroup analyst Itay Michaeli, who has a $284 price target on TSLA, mentioned in a note that the electric car maker’s lowered Q4 2018 guidance and 7% job cuts support the bear argument that the company’s stellar Q3 2018 results “weren’t sustainable.”
For now, Tesla is attempting to start deliveries of the Model 3 to two key international markets — Europe and China. Both territories present an important opportunity for the electric car maker, considering that Europe’s midsize sedan market is roughly twice as large as the United States.’ China’s electric car market, on the other hand, is the largest in the world. With Gigafactory 3 allowing Tesla to produce affordable variants of the Model 3 for the local market, the company’s electric sedan could prove to be a success in China.
As for Tesla’s upcoming competition this year, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch notes that legacy automakers have some serious catching up to do.
“Let’s get realistic about what the competition looks like. I mean, people have been very excited about some of the vehicles coming out in 2018. One, those cars have been delayed. Two, the products haven’t been as exciting as people anticipated. We were just at the Detroit Auto Show this week, and we saw, you know, around ten EVs on the show floor, and none of them were particularly exciting,” the analyst said.
As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -1.04% at $299.12 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
“Nothing Magnificent about Tesla (TSLA),” claims Jim Cramer
Cramer shared his thoughts about the matter in a comment to CNBC.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the stocks in the “Magnificent Seven,” which is comprised of U.S. tech companies that have driven notable market growth. But as per finance veteran Jim Cramer, electric vehicle maker Tesla no longer qualifies for the group’s moniker.
Cramer shared his thoughts about the matter in a comment to CNBC.
Not “Magnificent” Anymore
The Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) stocks are comprised of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla, and Nvidia. The companies are known for their large market caps, innovation, and domination in their respective fields. As per Cramer in his recent comments, however, there are essentially no Mag 7 stocks anymore amid the fallout of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“You can buy some low multiple techs, industrials, and banks here. We did that for the charitable trust today, right under the teeth of the selloff. I would not jump back into the Magnificent 7 because, as of tonight, there is no ‘Mag 7’ anymore. I came up with that name, and I’m scrapping it right now — no moniker fits the two or three that remain viable. And I’m not going to put it out there — there’s nothing magnificent about Tesla or Nvidia,” Cramer noted.
Trump Tariffs
Donald Trump’s tariffs are expected to affect a variety of industries, including automakers like Tesla. Despite this, Tesla’s domestic factories such as Gigafactory Texas and the Fremont Factory should shield Tesla to some degree. As per TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli, “Tesla (is) a relative beneficiary given [its] 100% U.S. production footprint, substantial U.S. sourcing, and with Model Y competing in a midsize crossover segment where close to ~50% of vehicles could be subject to tariffs.”
Elon Musk, however, has noted that the effects of Trump’s tariffs to Tesla are no joke. “To be clear, this will affect the price of parts in Tesla cars that come from other countries. The cost impact is not trivial,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Investor's Corner
BYD to overtake Tesla in BEV sales this 2025: Counterpoint Research
Counterpoint’s insights were shared by the market researcher on its official website.
Counterpoint Research has estimated that Chinese automaker BYD will be able to overtake American electric car maker Tesla in Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales this 2025.
Counterpoint’s insights were shared by the market researcher on its official website.
The (Counter)Point
Counterpoint Research’s latest Global Passenger EV Forecast suggests that BYD will be capturing a 15.7% global market share this year. This is expected to be driven by scale, innovation, and strong backing from the Chinese government.
The market researcher highlighted a number of factors that could help BYD become the world’s premier BEV maker this year. These include the company’s 1,000-kW ultra-fast charging technology and 10C charging rate batteries, which exceed Tesla’s current Supercharger offerings.
“The system can deliver 400 km of range in just 5 minutes, setting a new industry benchmark, far outpacing Tesla’s Supercharger, which adds about 275 km in 10 minutes. This technological leap is expected to significantly ease consumer concerns around charging time and boost EV adoption by reducing charging anxiety,” Abhik Mukherjee, Research Analyst at Counterpoint, stated.
The Tesla Factor
Counterpoint argued that Tesla, in comparison, is confronting several challenges, from damaged public perception due to CEO Elon Musk’s politics to geopolitical tensions between the United States and key markets like China. The market researcher highlighted Tesla’s soft sales in Europe and other markets, though it did not seem to consider the company’s changeover to the new Model Y across its global factories in Q1 2025.
“CEO Elon Musk has scored somewhat of an own goal against Tesla, and we are about to catch a glimpse of how much the company’s sales were hurt in Q1 2025. This is a big opportunity for BYD and if they deliver on the fast-charging promise, this could be the turning point for BYD and the China BEV story globally,” Counterpoint Associate Director Liz Lee stated.
Not the First Forecast
As noted in a CNEV Post report, this is not the first time that Counterpoint has predicted that BYD will overtake Tesla’s BEV sales. Last July, the market researcher expected BYD to overtake Tesla in 2024 to become the world’s top BEV maker. Tesla still beat BYD’s BEV sales at the end of 2024, however, with the American EV maker delivering a total of 1,789,226 vehicles globally versus the Chinese automaker’s 1,764,992 units.
In Q1 2025, however, BYD does seem to have momentum. BYD sold 416,388 passenger BEVs in the first quarter. As per Tesla’s Q1 vehicle delivery and production report, the company was able to deliver a total of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025.
Tesla bull Wedbush has responded to the company’s lackluster Q1 delivery figures, which were released on Wednesday morning in a new note from analyst Dan Ives.
Tesla reported deliveries of 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, a far cry from the Wall Street estimate of 352,000 and whisper numbers of roughly 350,000. At first glance, it seems to be a disaster, but Tesla said it lost “several weeks of production” in Q1 due to the ramp of the new Model Y at all four of its vehicle production factories.
This could be part of the reason that the company experienced a quarter of this performance, but there are also factors stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in the U.S. government, which has created some pushback in various markets.
It’s tough to say how much of each issue caused this type of quarter, but Ives wrote in a note to investors that Wedbush could not look at this “with rose-colored glasses,” as the performance “was a disaster on every metric.”
Ives believes it is time for Musk to make a move:
“The Street and us knew a bad 1Q was coming but this was even worse than expected. The time has come for Musk….it’s a fork in the road moment. The more political he gets with DOGE the more the brand suffers, there is no debate. This quarter was an example of the damage Musk is causing Tesla. This continues to be a moment of truth for Musk to navigate this brand tornado crisis moment and get onto the other side of this dark chapter for Tesla with much better days ahead.”
Interestingly, the stock dropped over 5 percent after the delivery report. It quickly rebounded 8 percent and is currently up over 5 percent on the day after a report from Politico stated that Musk and President Donald Trump have discussed the CEO stepping back from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Based on that, it seems that investors were looking for Musk to step back from his government duties and show more public attention to Tesla. Realistically, we do not know how much of his time is being devoted to Tesla and its EV initiative. However, it seems investors were ready to hear something along the lines of Musk being more involved and speaking openly about Tesla and its projects.
It’s not all bad. Ives still recognizes Tesla’s prowess with the rollout of robotaxi and Full Self-Driving and how much impact it could have moving forward:
“Autonomous remains the biggest transformation to the auto industry in modern-day history and in our view, Tesla will own the autonomous market in the US and globally with the launch of unsupervised FSD in Austin kicking off the autonomous era at Tesla that we value at $1 trillion alone on a sum-of-the-parts valuation…”
With that being said, he also wants Musk to balance responsibilities with DOGE and Tesla:
“BUT…Musk needs to stop this political firestorm and balance being CEO of Tesla with DOGE. The future is so bright but this is a full blown crisis Tesla is navigating now and its primarily self-inflected. We remain firmly bullish on the long-term Tesla story but Musk needs to get his act together or else unfortunately darker times are ahead for Tesla.”
Tesla shares are trading at $283.01, up 5.42% at 1:57 p.m. on the East Coast.
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