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Tesla gives Fiat a wake up call: ‘fake’ electric cars can still manipulate EU emissions standards
New CO2 regulations set to take effect in Europe have several loopholes in place that could derail the goal of reducing new car emissions by 37.5% in the region by 2030, according to a study published by advocacy group Transport & Environment. In a worst-case modeling scenario, gaming of the rules could also result in almost two million fewer zero or low emissions vehicles coming to market between 2025 and 2030, and of those in the market, half might be plug-in hybrids built for compliance, not innovation.
In order to propel the creation of a battery electric auto industry in the region, European Union members and parties participating in the discussions over the new CO2 regulations included incentives in the agreement that were tied to specific vehicle sales. Auto manufacturers with 15% of their sales coming from zero and low emission vehicles by 2025 and 35% from 2030 onwards will have their CO2 targets reduced by a maximum of 5%. This effectively means a company’s new fleet-wide CO2 output would only need to be reduced to 34.4% by 2030 instead of 37.5%, as calculated in the study.
Companies have further been allowed to pool their fleets together to help reach these goals, something which Tesla has recently taken advantage of by partnering with Fiat Chrysler. As a manufacturer of zero-emission vehicles, counting Tesla’s fleet with Fiat’s lowers the average per-vehicle CO2 output, thus lessening the burden for Fiat to meet the emissions standards while Tesla profits from the deal.
On its face, the 5% trade-off for lower emissions standards would be the entry of new, more innovative clean energy vehicles on the market; however, the inclusion of plug-in hybrids in that calculation could be problematic and used to game the system. In order to qualify as a low emissions vehicle, a hybrid car only needs to be under a threshold of 50 g/km CO2 output during testing which assumes full use of the vehicle’s battery. Because most of these plug-in hybrids have very low battery ranges, they’re often not used in practice in favor of the internal combustion engine, thus increasing their real-world CO2 output to around 120 g/km.
The technology behind plug-in hybrids is less innovative and therefore cheaper to produce, so the financial appeal of producing more of these types of vehicles over battery-only electric vehicles is high. The Transport & Environment study estimates that this effect will lead to about 2 million fewer all-electric cars being produced in favor of the cheaper, ‘fake’ electric compliance hybrids.
Other loopholes in the EU regulations also contribute to a reduction in CO2 outcomes. Fourteen countries where non-existent or nascent low emissions vehicle markets were identified will receive nearly double the emissions credit for eco-friendly cars sold to encourage development in the regions.
Simply, a large manufacturer could register thousands of vehicles in one of these markets, acquire double credit for each vehicle, and then quickly sell the vehicles in an established market where demand is higher. When sold, the cars would technically be “used” for record keeping purposes, but new to consumers and presented that way. This would circumvent the point of developing a low emissions market in those countries, further limiting the expansion of low emissions car availability.
The EU member states where double credits apply are Ireland, Greece, Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, and Malta.
The final (possible) loophole identified in the Transport & Environment study lies with the inclusion of Norway in the EU regional calculations. The country has not yet formally been included in the 2025/30 standards but is part of the 2020/1 standards currently in effect and will likely be included in the upcoming rules.
Norway is requiring 100% of its vehicles to have zero emissions by 2025, thus guaranteeing sales of those types of cars in a market where ICE vehicles are not competitive. Automakers could concentrate their sales in that region and make less effort to sell in the rest of Europe, all while still remaining compliant with the regulations. Reaching compliance in this manner is another way the intent of the coming CO2 reduction requirements can be manipulated.
The authors of the Transport & Environment study have laid out their proposals to overcome these loopholes, but considering that they were included to win the support of the auto industry in the region, further changes to the regulations seem unlikely. Also, the study could be taking an overly pessimistic view of the possible outcomes the loopholes could lead to.
Consumer markets, even without significant CO2-related regulation, are already showing trends towards increasing low emission vehicle demands, especially for battery electric vehicles like those sold by Tesla. This “Tesla Effect” has been noted by the upper echelons of legacy auto and several have committed to billions in electric fleet investments. Porsche is unveiling its first production electric vehicle, the Taycan, this September and has plans to retire its diesel-powered lineup and embrace electrification. Ford has also recently committed to electrifying its F-series, most notably the classic F-150, as well as invest $11 billion dollars to produce 40 electrified vehicles by 2022.
Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.
For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.
Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.
With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.
For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.
Credit: Tesla
Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.
The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.
Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance
This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.
Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.
It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.
Tesla launched the slightly larger Model Y L in China last year, and it became a hit in no time. The longer wheelbase, larger interior, and slightly more forgiving legroom area in the Model Y L became a sought-after possibility for U.S. buyers, who have been begging the company for a larger SUV.
Now, Tesla needs it more than ever, especially considering the Model X was discontinued alongside its Model S sibling earlier this year. It looks to be more likely than ever, and based on recent reports, it will fall in line with CEO Elon Musk’s prediction that it would arrive in the United States in late 2026.
Recent reports from Forbes and Not a Tesla App both have indicated Tesla plans to bring the Model Y L to the U.S. this year. The reports cite “credible sources,” and an analyst from AutoForecast Solutions named Sam Fiorani stated that the car would enter production later this year.
Fiorani said:
“China, Australia, and India are supplied by the factory in China, which will not supply vehicles to the U.S. Production of the Model Y L is expected to begin in the U.S. in September, which will lead to sales beginning before the end of 2026.”
Production would take place at Gigafactory Texas.
Additionally, a few Model Y L units have been spotted under wraps in the United States, giving more indication that Tesla plans to bring the vehicle to the U.S. When Tesla is close to launching a vehicle in the U.S., it is not uncommon to see these models with the exact car covers that you see below:
Looks like another Tesla Model Y L was spotted in the U.S.! pic.twitter.com/jhsdkcN5Go
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 26, 2026
It makes sense, especially considering Musk hinted the Model Y L would make it to the U.S. in late 2026, but it was up in the air. The CEO said the advent of self-driving might not warrant a larger SUV coming to the U.S. market specifically.
The problem is, consumers do not want to hear that. They love Tesla’s tech, FSD, and other features, but they need more space for growing families. The Model X is gone, and the most anyone can fit in a Tesla right now is seven people in the seven-seat Model Y. That back row is truly only large enough to fit small children comfortably.
Tesla fans have requested a full-size SUV, and the company has made some hints that it could be in the plans.
The Model Y and Model Y L differ noticeably in size, with the Model Y L being a stretched, six-seat variant designed for great interior room. The Standard Model Y measures approximately 4,790mm in length, 1,982 mm in width with the mirrors folded, 1,624mm in height, and 2,890mm in wheel base.
In contrast, the Model Y L extends to be about 4,969–4,976mm long (roughly 179mm or 7 inches longer), stands 1,668mm tall (+44mm), and features a significantly longer 3,040 mm wheelbase (+150mm), while maintaining the same width.
This elongation primarily benefits rear passenger space and enables a 2+2+2 seating layout with captain’s chairs, though it slightly reduces maximum cargo capacity behind the rearmost seats and adds a bit of overall mass and turning radius. The result is a more spacious family hauler that still shares the core footprint and agile character of the original Model Y.
In a major development that will inevitably strengthen Tesla’s dominant position in the American EV market, Polestar has been effectively banned from selling new vehicles in the United States, starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied Polestar authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which prohibits vehicles containing certain connected technologies (Cellular, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, etc.) linked to China or Russia due to national security risks, including potential data collection on American drivers.
🚨 A Tesla competitor goes down
Polestar will no longer sell new vehicles in the United States starting with the 2027 model year.
The U.S. Department of Commerce denied the brand authorization under the Connected Vehicle Rule, which restricts the sale of cars with software and… pic.twitter.com/TrwnQeoiES
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) June 25, 2026
Polestar, which is majority-owned by China’s Geely Holding, could not obtain the required exemption despite producing some models domestically.
Polestar confirmed it will sell off any remaining inventory of the Polestar 3 and Polestar 4 models, while continuing service and warranty support for existing customers. No new models or major refreshes will reach U.S. buyers, and the company is pivoting its growth strategy to Europe, where it already generates the vast majority of its sales.
The outcome removes a direct premium EV competitor that had positioned itself as a stylish, performance-oriented alternative to Tesla’s lineup. The Polestar 2 challenged the Model 3, while the Polestar 3 and 4 targeted segments overlapping with the Model Y and upcoming Tesla offerings. Polestar’s U.S. sales had already been sluggish amid intense competition and slower demand, representing just 6 percent of its global volume in the first quarter of 2026.
While Polestar was not on Tesla’s level in the U.S., it still places a dent in the evergrowing field of Tesla competitors in the country, where it has long dominated EV sales.
Tesla faces none of these hurdles. As a U.S.-founded and U.S.-headquartered company with major manufacturing in Fremont, Austin, and Nevada, Tesla’s vehicles are built with compliant domestic and allied supply chains. Its Full Self-Driving technology, over-the-air software updates, and vertically integrated ecosystem were developed entirely in-house without foreign ownership entanglements that trigger national security reviews, at least in the U.S.
Of course, it did face a similar threat in China a few years back:
Elon Musk responds to reports of Tesla ban among China’s military over security concerns
The Connected Vehicle Rule, first advanced under the prior administration and upheld under the current one, is part of a broader U.S. effort to protect the domestic auto industry and critical technology from Chinese influence. High tariffs on Chinese-made EVs and related restrictions have already reshaped the market. Tesla benefits directly: it avoids these barriers while continuing to lead in U.S. EV sales volume, Supercharger network expansion, and energy storage integration.
By clearing Polestar from the new-vehicle playing field, the policy reduces competitive pressure in the premium and performance EV segments where Tesla has invested billions. American consumers seeking cutting-edge electric vehicles now have one fewer option tied to foreign adversaries — and one clearer path to the market leader that has driven the EV transition from the start.
For Tesla, this is more than regulatory relief. It is a strategic tailwind that reinforces its position as America’s premier EV innovator at a time when domestic manufacturing and technological independence matter most.
Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory
Tesla looks keen to bring larger Model Y L to the U.S.
