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Tesla gives Fiat a wake up call: ‘fake’ electric cars can still manipulate EU emissions standards

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New CO2 regulations set to take effect in Europe have several loopholes in place that could derail the goal of reducing new car emissions by 37.5% in the region by 2030, according to a study published by advocacy group Transport & Environment. In a worst-case modeling scenario, gaming of the rules could also result in almost two million fewer zero or low emissions vehicles coming to market between 2025 and 2030, and of those in the market, half might be plug-in hybrids built for compliance, not innovation.

In order to propel the creation of a battery electric auto industry in the region, European Union members and parties participating in the discussions over the new CO2 regulations included incentives in the agreement that were tied to specific vehicle sales. Auto manufacturers with 15% of their sales coming from zero and low emission vehicles by 2025 and 35% from 2030 onwards will have their CO2 targets reduced by a maximum of 5%. This effectively means a company’s new fleet-wide CO2 output would only need to be reduced to 34.4% by 2030 instead of 37.5%, as calculated in the study.

Companies have further been allowed to pool their fleets together to help reach these goals, something which Tesla has recently taken advantage of by partnering with Fiat Chrysler. As a manufacturer of zero-emission vehicles, counting Tesla’s fleet with Fiat’s lowers the average per-vehicle CO2 output, thus lessening the burden for Fiat to meet the emissions standards while Tesla profits from the deal.

Chart visualizing the impact of ‘fake’ electric cars (compliance plug-in hybrids) enabled by loopholes in the coming EU CO2 regulations. An estimated 2 million electric vehicles will be lost by 2030; of all low emissions vehicles sold, half (11 million) will be compliance plug-in hybrids. | Credit: Transport & Environment

On its face, the 5% trade-off for lower emissions standards would be the entry of new, more innovative clean energy vehicles on the market; however, the inclusion of plug-in hybrids in that calculation could be problematic and used to game the system. In order to qualify as a low emissions vehicle, a hybrid car only needs to be under a threshold of 50 g/km CO2 output during testing which assumes full use of the vehicle’s battery. Because most of these plug-in hybrids have very low battery ranges, they’re often not used in practice in favor of the internal combustion engine, thus increasing their real-world CO2 output to around 120 g/km.

The technology behind plug-in hybrids is less innovative and therefore cheaper to produce, so the financial appeal of producing more of these types of vehicles over battery-only electric vehicles is high. The Transport & Environment study estimates that this effect will lead to about 2 million fewer all-electric cars being produced in favor of the cheaper, ‘fake’ electric compliance hybrids.

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Other loopholes in the EU regulations also contribute to a reduction in CO2 outcomes. Fourteen countries where non-existent or nascent low emissions vehicle markets were identified will receive nearly double the emissions credit for eco-friendly cars sold to encourage development in the regions.

Chart displaying the estimated effect of allowing ‘fake’ electric cars (compliance plug-in hybrids) to receive partial (.7) emissions credits under coming EU CO2 regulations. | Credit: Transport & Environment
Chart displaying the estimated effect of allowing car makers to register low emissions vehicles in nascent markets for double credits under coming EU CO2 regulations and then quickly resell to larger markets. | Credit: Transport & Environment

Simply, a large manufacturer could register thousands of vehicles in one of these markets, acquire double credit for each vehicle, and then quickly sell the vehicles in an established market where demand is higher. When sold, the cars would technically be “used” for record keeping purposes, but new to consumers and presented that way. This would circumvent the point of developing a low emissions market in those countries, further limiting the expansion of low emissions car availability.

The EU member states where double credits apply are Ireland, Greece, Poland, Slovenia, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus, and Malta.

The final (possible) loophole identified in the Transport & Environment study lies with the inclusion of Norway in the EU regional calculations. The country has not yet formally been included in the 2025/30 standards but is part of the 2020/1 standards currently in effect and will likely be included in the upcoming rules.

Norway is requiring 100% of its vehicles to have zero emissions by 2025, thus guaranteeing sales of those types of cars in a market where ICE vehicles are not competitive. Automakers could concentrate their sales in that region and make less effort to sell in the rest of Europe, all while still remaining compliant with the regulations. Reaching compliance in this manner is another way the intent of the coming CO2 reduction requirements can be manipulated.

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Chart displaying the estimated effect of allowing low emissions vehicles sold in Norway to count towards EU emissions averages under coming EU CO2 regulations. | Credit: Transport & Environment

The authors of the Transport & Environment study have laid out their proposals to overcome these loopholes, but considering that they were included to win the support of the auto industry in the region, further changes to the regulations seem unlikely. Also, the study could be taking an overly pessimistic view of the possible outcomes the loopholes could lead to.

Consumer markets, even without significant CO2-related regulation, are already showing trends towards increasing low emission vehicle demands, especially for battery electric vehicles like those sold by Tesla. This “Tesla Effect” has been noted by the upper echelons of legacy auto and several have committed to billions in electric fleet investments. Porsche is unveiling its first production electric vehicle, the Taycan, this September and has plans to retire its diesel-powered lineup and embrace electrification. Ford has also recently committed to electrifying its F-series, most notably the classic F-150, as well as invest $11 billion dollars to produce 40 electrified vehicles by 2022.

Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Tesla bull sees odds rising of Tesla merger after Musk confirms SpaceX-xAI deal

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote on Tuesday that there is a growing chance Tesla could be merged in some form with SpaceX and xAI over the next 12 to 18 months.

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Credit: Tesla China

A prominent Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull has stated that the odds are rising that Tesla could eventually merge with SpaceX and xAI, following Elon Musk’s confirmation that the private space company has combined with his artificial intelligence startup. 

Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote on Tuesday that there is a growing chance Tesla could be merged in some form with SpaceX and xAI over the next 12 to 18 months.

“In our view there is a growing chance that Tesla will eventually be merged in some form into SpaceX/xAI over time. The view is this growing AI ecosystem will focus on Space and Earth together…..and Musk will look to combine forces,” Ives wrote in a post on X.

Ives’ comments followed confirmation from Elon Musk late Monday that SpaceX has merged with xAI. Musk stated that the merger creates a vertically integrated platform that combines AI, rockets, satellite internet, communications, and real-time data.

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In a post on SpaceX’s official website, Elon Musk added that the combined company is aimed at enabling space-based AI compute, stating that within two to three years, space could become the lowest-cost environment for generating AI processing power. The transaction reportedly values the combined SpaceX-xAI entity at roughly $1.25 trillion.

Tesla, for its part, has already increased its exposure to xAI, announcing a $2 billion investment in the startup last week in its Q4 and FY 2025 update letter.

While merger speculation has intensified, notable complications could emerge if SpaceX/xAI does merge with Tesla, as noted in a report from Investors Business Daily.

SpaceX holds major U.S. government contracts, including with the Department of Defense and NASA, and xAI’s Grok is being used by the U.S. Department of War. Tesla, for its part, maintains extensive operations in China through Gigafactory Shanghai and its Megapack facility. 

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Elon Musk and xAI donate generators to TN amid historic power outages

The donation comes as thousands of households have gone days without electricity amid freezing temperatures.

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Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk has donated hundreds of generators to Tennessee residents still without power following a historic winter storm, as per an update from Governor Bill Lee. 

The donation comes as thousands of households have gone days without electricity amid freezing temperatures.

Musk donates generators

As noted in a report from WSMV4, the historic storm that hit Tennessee resulted in hundreds of thousands of residents experiencing a power outage at the end of January. Thousands are still living without power or heat in freezing temperatures for up to nine days.

As per TN Gov. Bill Lee in a post on X, Elon Musk and xAI have donated hundreds of generators to assist residents in affected areas. “Tennesseans without power need immediate help. I’m deeply grateful to @elonmusk & @xAI for going above & beyond to support Tennesseans by donating hundreds of generators to fill the gap, & I value their continued partnership to solve problems & support communities across our state,” he wrote in his post. 

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Tennessee officials have stated that recovery efforts remain ongoing as crews work to restore power and address damage caused by the winter storm. The generators are expected to provide temporary relief for residents facing power outages during freezing conditions.

Tesla Powerwalls may follow

Musk publicly responded to the governor’s post while hinting that additional help may be on the way. This time, the additional support would be coming from Musk’s electric vehicle company, Tesla. 

“You’re most welcome. We’re working on providing Tesla Powerwalls too,” Musk wrote in his response to the official. 

Even before Elon Musk’s comment, Tesla had already extended help to affected customers in Mississippi and Tennessee. In a post on X, the official Tesla Charging account noted that all Superchargers in the two states are online, and free Supercharging has been enabled to help those in areas that are affected by persistent power outages. 

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These include Grenada, Tupelo, Corinth, Southhaven, and Horn Lake in Mississippi and several Supercharging sites in Memphis, Tennessee. 

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Tesla-inspired door handles prohibited under China’s new safety standard

The rule effectively ends a design trend pioneered by Tesla and widely adopted across China’s electric vehicle market.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

China will ban hidden door handles on electric vehicles starting 2027 under a new national safety standard, forcing automakers to equip their cars with mechanical exterior and interior handles. 

The rule effectively ends a design trend pioneered by Tesla and widely adopted across China’s electric vehicle market.

China bans hidden door handles

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) noted that the new mandatory national auto safety standard on EV door handles will take effect on January 1, 2027. For models that have already received approval and are scheduled for launch, automakers will be allowed to complete required design changes by January 2029.

Under the new rules, exterior door handles must remain operable even in scenarios involving irreversible restraint system failures or thermal runaway incidents in the battery pack. Doors must also be capable of opening even if the vehicle loses electrical power. Interior doors must include at least one independent mechanical release handle per door as well.

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Safety concerns drive rollback

Hidden and electrically actuated door handles have become mainstream in recent years as EV makers pursued cleaner styling and improved aerodynamics. Tesla pioneered the hidden handle design, and it was adopted by most Chinese EV manufacturers in either fully hidden or semi-hidden forms, as noted in a CNEV Post report. Today, about 60% of top-selling EVs in China use the design.

Chinese regulators have stated that the designs pose safety risks, particularly in crashes or power failures where doors may not open from the inside or outside. Authorities cited multiple fatal incidents in which occupants or rescuers were unable to open vehicle doors after collisions.

One high-profile case occurred last October, when a Xiaomi SU7, a vehicle designed to be a competitor to the Tesla Model 3, caught fire following a crash in Chengdu in southwest China. The driver died after bystanders were unable to open the doors. The incident sparked intense scrutiny over the SU7’s Tesla-inspired door handles.

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