Investor's Corner
Tesla a ‘flagship holding’ despite Gigafactory unpredictability: Piper Sandler
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is a “flagship holding” for Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter, who indicated the all-electric automaker’s stock is simply a must-have following the impressive delivery and production numbers the company reported late last week. Even with unpredictability and uncertainty regarding its upcoming Gigafactories, Tesla is still primed to be a big winner in the savvy EV sector moving forward, Potter said in a note.
Tesla reported 184,800 deliveries during Q1 2021, an impressive feat that peaked over Wall Street’s consensus for what was expected in the new year’s introductory quarter. Potter highlights this in a note to investors, where he indicated the Wall Street estimates were bested by Tesla’s real-life performance by over 10,000 units. Apparently avoiding bottlenecks that plagued other automakers with production delays, like the global semiconductor shortage, Tesla seemed to “sidestep” these issues in Q1, bringing together a quickly accelerating production push of its two mass-market vehicles to deliver impressive figures that no analyst could have predicted.
“Tesla apparently sidestepped the semiconductor shortages, battery bottlenecks, and shipping delays that plagued many other automakers during Q1,” Potter wrote, according to TheStreet. Still, the impressiveness of Tesla’s Q1 cannot completely be attributed to the company’s evident ability to defy all odds, even with supply shortages. The more impressive factor was the fact that Tesla was able to accomplish such a monumental quarter while navigating the absence of two of its vehicles: the Model S and the Model X, which are the subject of focus moving into Q2.
While the Model 3 and Model Y continue to gain popularity across the world, the Model S and Model X remain absent from Tesla’s current lineup of deliverable vehicles. Despite the company delivering a few thousand units of the flagship S and X vehicles thanks to inventory, the cars didn’t contribute very much. This is an expectation CEO Elon Musk highlighted several years ago during an Earnings Call, where he said the S and X were still produced for “sentimental reasons.”
Tesla’s Q1 ’21 Deliveries prove Elon Musk was right about the Model S and X in 2019
Despite the company’s inability to scrap its two luxury models, the Model S and Model X were the most recent focus of Tesla’s “refresh” project that spread across all four of its electric models over the past eight months. The Model 3 and Model Y underwent very minor cosmetic changes, while the Model S and Model X were basically overhauled and redesigned on the inside. Slight exterior changes were also spotted upon the vehicle’s first sightings at the Tesla Fremont Factory, but the interior design rehabilitation took center stage when Tesla released images during the Q4 2020 Earnings Call in late January.
Potter believes that S and X deliveries would have increased Tesla’s Q1 2021 delivery figures by around 15,000 units, giving Tesla a massive 200,000+ delivery quarter. The concerns from the Piper Sandler analyst do not have to do with the uncertainty regarding Model S and Model X deliveries to customers, but rather the unexpected delays that Gigafactory projects are experiencing. While Tesla has been extremely vocal regarding the first production dates of its upcoming manufacturing plants, Potter believes that uncertainty with Tesla’s other models could translate to some delays at Giga Texas and Giga Berlin, but it’s not making the analyst change his outlook on the electric automaker.
“We still think these new factories could cause margin pressure, delivery delays, and temporary multiple compression,” Potter said, “but we don’t want to overthink things: TSLA is a flagship holding, and we would own the shares.“
Tesla Giga Berlin is slated to begin production of the Model Y later this Summer, while Giga Texas timeframes remain uncertain at the present time. Tesla planned on Giga Texas being able to produce and deliver the first Cybertruck units by the end of 2021, but Musk recently told Joe Rogan that the company will accomplish this if they’re lucky.
“If we get lucky, we’ll be able to do a few deliveries toward the end of this year, but I expect volume production to be in 2022,” Musk said.
Alex Potter holds an average return of 34.2% and a nearly 5-star rating. He is ranked #328 out of over 7,400 analysts on TipRanks.com.
Disclosure: Joey Klender is a TSLA Shareholder.
Elon Musk has firmly denied recent media reports suggesting that SpaceX has reduced its target valuation for an upcoming initial public offering.
The denial came directly from the SpaceX and Tesla frontman on his social media platform X, where he responded with a single word, “False,” to a post from ZeroHedge that cited Bloomberg sources.
This swift rebuttal underscores Musk’s ongoing effort to manage speculation surrounding one of the most anticipated market debuts in recent history.
False
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 29, 2026
According to the disputed reports, SpaceX had lowered its IPO valuation goal to at least $1.8 trillion from previous ambitions exceeding $2 trillion.
The claims emerged amid growing anticipation for the company’s confidential S-1 filing, which positions it for a potential public listing as early as June.
Some had pointed to strong revenue growth, particularly from the Starlink satellite internet service, which contributed heavily to the firm’s 2025 figures of $18.7 billion. Yet challenges persist in other areas, including substantial investments and losses tied to ambitious projects like Starship development and artificial intelligence initiatives, which plan to make life multiplanetary eventually.
Musk’s response highlights a pattern in which he actively counters what he views as inaccurate portrayals of his companies’ trajectories.
SpaceX, already valued privately at extraordinary levels, stands as a cornerstone of Musk’s empire alongside Tesla and xAI. The entrepreneur has long emphasized the transformative potential of reusable rockets and global broadband access, factors that fuel investor enthusiasm despite operational hurdles.
By rejecting the valuation downgrade narrative, Musk signals confidence in SpaceX’s fundamentals and its readiness for public markets on terms favorable to its long-term vision. People have been waiting a very long time to invest in SpaceX, and the valuation, as well as the introductory share price, is not going to need adjusting.
They’ll have plenty of suitors.
This episode reflects broader dynamics in the technology sector, where rumors often swirl around high-profile entities. Musk’s direct engagement with media narratives serves to maintain transparency and control the narrative around his ventures.
As SpaceX prepares for greater scrutiny in public markets, the founder’s denial reinforces optimism about its prospects. Supporters argue that the company’s innovative edge positions it for enduring success, far beyond short-term valuation debates. With the denial now public, attention turns to forthcoming regulatory filings that could provide clearer insights into SpaceX’s strategy and financial health.
The coming weeks promise to reveal more about how SpaceX will transition into a publicly traded powerhouse.
Elon Musk
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Tesla and SpaceX may be closer to merging than Wall Street or either company is admitting.
Elon Musk has reportedly discussed merging Tesla and SpaceX with people close to him, according to CNBC, which cited sources familiar with the conversation. Tesla employees have long expected such a transaction and the topic is openly discussed internally, according to internal sources. With SpaceX is days away from kicking off its Wall Street roadshow for what could be the largest IPO in market history, this would be the first time the company will have public market currency to execute a stock-for-stock deal with Tesla.
The financial logic for a merger would make sense. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX’s IPO target range and Tesla’s current market capitalization. The two companies are already more intertwined than most people realize. SpaceX bought $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack systems for xAI data centers and $131 million worth of Cybertrucks. Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI, which subsequently merged with SpaceX. Past transactions also include Tesla selling solar equipment and parts to SpaceX, and SpaceX helping with Cybertruck materials.
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Musk himself signaled where this was heading in November 2025 when he posted on X, “My companies are, surprisingly in some ways, trending towards convergence.” Tesla and SpaceX announced a joint semiconductor fabrication facility in Austin called Terafab on the Gigafactory Texas campus, covering two advanced chip factories, with one serving Tesla’s AI needs for vehicles and Optimus robots, the other targeting space-based data centers under SpaceX’s infrastructure vision.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. The mechanics of a deal became possible the moment SpaceX filed its S-1. Legal experts said a merger likely would not spark antitrust issues but would raise concerns among shareholders in each company, with questions around which company would be the parent, how a stock swap would take place, and who determines the appropriate price. Musk holds about 20% of Tesla’s equity but controls 85.1% of SpaceX’s voting power through a super-voting share class, meaning he would largely be negotiating the terms with himself.
Not everyone is convinced the timing is imminent. Traders on Kalshi place only 33% odds that a merger will happen before May 2027. The more immediate concern for Tesla shareholders is whether the SpaceX IPO pulls capital and Musk’s attention away from Tesla before any merger consolidates the upside for both.
What is clear is that the structural groundwork is already being laid. The Terafab announcement, the xAI merger, the shared supply chain, the cross-company balance sheet transactions, and now the IPO all point in the same direction. Whether the merger follows in 2027 or later, the two companies are already operating more like divisions of a single entity than independent competitors.
Elon Musk
SpaceX just filed for the IPO everyone was waiting for
SpaceX filed its public S-1, revealing $18.7 billion in revenue and billions in losses.
SpaceX publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission on May 20, 2026, making its financial details available to the public for the first time ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.
An S-1 is the formal document a company must submit to the SEC before going public. It includes audited financials, risk factors, business descriptions, and how the company plans to use the money it raises. Companies are required to file one before selling shares to the public, and it must be published at least 15 days before the investor roadshow begins. SpaceX had already submitted a confidential draft to the SEC in April, which allowed regulators to review the filing privately before it went public.
The S-1 reveals that SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in consolidated revenue in 2025, driven largely by its Starlink satellite internet division, which posted $11.4 billion in revenue, growing nearly 50% year over year. Despite that growth, the company lost about $4.9 billion in 2025 and has burned through more than $37 billion since its founding.
SpaceX just forced Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile to team up for the first time in history
A significant portion of those losses trace back to xAI, Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company, which was recently merged into SpaceX. SpaceX directed roughly 60% of its capital spending in 2025 to its AI division, totaling around $20 billion, yet that division lost billions and grew revenue by only about 22%.
SpaceX plans to list its Class A common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America leading the offering. The dual-class share structure means going public will not meaningfully reduce Musk’s control, as Class B shares he holds carry 10 votes per share compared to one vote for public Class A shares.
The company is targeting a raise of around $75 billion at a valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion, which would make it the largest IPO ever. The investor roadshow is reportedly planned for June 5.
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