Investor's Corner
Tesla Gigafactory 3 in China is progressing ‘1 yr ahead of schedule,’ says local reports
When Tesla released its third-quarter vehicle delivery and production report, the electric car maker stated that it will be ramping the construction of its Gigafactory 3 in China. During that time, Tesla’s updated timeframe was met with a notable degree of skepticism among the company’s critics, particularly as Gigafactory 3’s initial timeline, which called for vehicle production to start within two years of the facility’s construction, was already panned for being too ambitious.
One factor that appears to have escaped Tesla’s critics, though, was that the company is seemingly enjoying the full support of the Chinese government. And in a country such as China, the support of the government matters much. With government backing, even projects deemed too ambitious become feasible. Considering the progress in Gigafactory 3’s Shanghai site so far, this appears to be the case, as construction in the company’s 864,885-square meter plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone is already underway.
Last week, drone footage taken of the site revealed that workers have already completed laying the perimeter fence around Gigafactory 3. The progress of the battery and electric car factory’s construction was emphasized even more in recent reports from local Chinese media, who provided some details on Gigafactory 3’s development. One of these reports stated that the facility, which is on its first stage of construction, is currently one year ahead of schedule (credit is due to Tesla community member vincent13031925 for translating and summarizing the local news report’s content on Twitter).
This is not all, though, as local media also stated that the price of Model 3 and Model Y — the two vehicles that will be produced in the facility — can be reduced by 1/3 if Tesla utilizes local supply chains and labor. Reiterating previous reports, local Chinese media have also stated that an assembly line for the Model 3, the first vehicle that will be built in Gigafactory 3, is expected to be ready for operation in the second half of 2019.
Gigafactory 3’s construction is a welcome project in China, a country that is aggressively pursuing an initiative to push electric vehicles to its consumers. The country is already the largest market for EVs today, but in the coming years, China’s electric car market is bound to get even larger. As such, having a dedicated facility that could produce vehicles locally would greatly help Tesla increase its foothold on the country.
So far, Tesla appears to be operating well under the approving eye of the Chinese government. Permits for the project were quickly filed and approved, and local Shanghai banks were reported to have easily granted low-interest loans for the facility’s construction. The local government seemed to have given its blessing when Tesla made its bid for the plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone as well, since the electric car maker’s bid went completely unchallenged. Overall, it almost seems like China is favorably looking to Tesla as a company that can lead a transition towards the widespread adoption of electric cars. As such, it is doing what it can to support the company.
The government’s show of support appears to be working well, as exhibited by the notable level of interest that Gigafactory 3 is attracting. Just recently, Tesla held a job fair for positions in the upcoming facility. The response to Tesla’s job fair overwhelmed the electric car maker, forcing the company to extend its hiring hours to accommodate the large number of applicants for the site. A number of the applicants interviewed by local media even noted that they traveled from faraway cities just to apply for a post in Gigafactory 3.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its earnings for the second quarter of 2026 this evening after market close, and investors and analysts are waiting anxiously to see what the company will report for the second three-month span of the year.
Analysts have already put out their expectations from a financial standpoint for the company’s second quarter, but what’s unknown is what Tesla plans to discuss during the call.
Financial Expectations
Wall Street consensus expectations put Tesla’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $0.53, while revenues are expected to come in around $26.4 billion.
This would compare to an EPS of $0.39 and $22.19 billion compared to Tesla’s Q2 2025. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.41 on $22.387 billion of revenue. Additionally in Q1, Tesla beat analyst expectations, but shares dropped over 3 percent the following trading day.
What We Expect
In terms of discussions, Tesla earnings are pretty sporadic and depend on a handful of things, including current events, investor questions, and more.
Tesla uses a platform called Say to field questions from investors and analysts. These questions are what will be used during the call. Here are the top 5 from the Retail side and top 3 from the Institutional side:
Retail:
“Tesla has missed short-term guidance on robotaxi 3 earnings reports in a row, from 50% coverage of USA by end of 2025 to most recently 7 new cities in 1H26. What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short term goals that they’ve set for themselves?”
“What are the main constraints to expanding robotaxi operations faster, and how do you see that lining up with Cybercab production?”
“What’s the current status of Optimus Gen 3 production ramp, initial deployment in factories, and external sales timeline/volume for 2027? What tasks can we expect the Optimus to perform by end of 2027?”
“To reward long-term Tesla retail shareholders for their loyalty, can you commit to achieving at least half of the goals outlined in your 2025 compensation plan before considering any offers to acquire or merge Tesla?”
“Why has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see cybercab start customer rides?”
Institutional
“Previously, you’ve said Tesla would lead the R&D while SpaceX would lead production for Terafab. Can you provide an update on how that division of responsibilities is evolving, and any additional clarity on the expected capital contributions from Tesla and SpaceX?”
“For autonomous driving, Tesla’s fleet created a huge data advantage by collecting billions of real-world miles. That advantage doesn’t yet exist for Optimus. How should we think about data availability and its impact on Optimus development?”
“Why is it necessary to limit robotaxi operations within specific zones within cities to start? Will every city have to be rolled out this way?”
Tesla will report earnings for Q2 this evening with the Shareholder Deck at 4 p.m. ET, with the call starting around 5:30 p.m. ET.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands on
Elon Musk says SpaceX will feed engineering data into Grok’s next model, avoiding restricted material.
Elon Musk said Tuesday that SpaceX will feed its internal engineering data into the next major training run for Grok, the AI model now folded into SpaceX following February’s merger. In a post on X, Musk wrote that SpaceX’s “massive corpus of world-class engineering data,” excluding anything restricted under U.S. arms export law, will be added during supplemental training of what he called the “2T run,” a reference to a roughly two trillion parameter model that would nearly double the parameters behind the latest Grok 4.5 that’s rolling out.
SpaceX’s massive corpus of world-class engineering data (excluding material blocked by ITAR) will be added during supplemental training of the 2T run.
This will dramatically improve Grok’s engineering capabilities. https://t.co/BbQEViFByn
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 21, 2026
The excluded material that Musk is referring to would fall under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which restricts export of technical data tied to defense and space hardware. That likely rules out propulsion specifics for Merlin and Raptor engines along with guidance and control details for SpaceX’s launch vehicles, but leaves manufacturing knowledge, materials science, and Starlink hardware design on the table.
The announcement extends a pattern that has been building since SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut in June, when the company went public with Grok and xAI’s Colossus supercomputer folded into the pitch to investors.
Days after that listing, SpaceX closed its $60 billion all stock acquisition of coding startup Cursor, giving xAI both enterprise software distribution and a stream of real world developer data to train on. Grok 4.5 launched July 8 running partly on that Cursor training data, with Musk describing it as roughly comparable to Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 but faster and cheaper to run.
Feeding SpaceX’s own engineering data into the next AI model follows the same logic Musk has applied across xAI’s sister companies. Tesla supplies real world driving data and manufacturing expertise, X supplies conversational data, and now SpaceX supplies aerospace engineering data built up since 2002.
Musk did not give a release date for the upcoming AI model, referred to elsewhere as Grok 4.6. He has said the two trillion parameter run is in its final training phase and expected to wrap this week.
In a pointed message on X, Elon Musk warned that firms maintaining significant short positions in SpaceX over time face “very low” survival probability.
The statement comes amid post-IPO volatility for the rocket company, now trading under the ticker $SPCX.
The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 17, 2026
Five weeks after what was described as the largest IPO in history, the stock had fallen roughly 30% from its peak above $2.6 trillion, briefly surpassing Microsoft and Amazon in market value. Short sellers celebrated gains of about $8.7 billion, but Musk’s reply underscores his long-term conviction.
The warning directly echoes a detailed bullish analysis arguing that Starship’s cost reductions could unlock a multi-trillion-dollar space economy. Projects ranging from solar power beamed from orbit and asteroid mining to orbital data centers and Mars terraforming were projected to create over $100 trillion in new market capitalization.
In this vision, SpaceX acts as the essential infrastructure provider, akin to AWS for cloud computing, capturing monopoly-like revenues from launches, crew transport, and data traffic across a rapidly expanding frontier.
This is far from the first time Musk has targeted short sellers. With Tesla, he has repeatedly framed persistent bears as destined for major losses. In July 2024, Musk declared that once Tesla achieves full autonomy and volume production of Optimus robots, “anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated. Even Gates,” referencing Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates’ reported short bets.
Elon Musk reveals what Tesla stock surge could do to Bill Gates
Earlier, in 2018, he taunted shorts that they had “about three weeks before their short position explodes,” a remark followed by sharp stock gains. Musk has also called short selling “value destroying” and once suggested it “should be illegal,” viewing it as betting against innovation and progress.
Critics often dismiss Musk’s optimism as hype, especially when near-term metrics like quarterly deliveries or stock fluctuations disappoint.
Yet his pattern remains consistent: framing short positions against his companies as fundamentally misjudging exponential technological leaps. For SpaceX shorts, the message is clear: betting against multi-planetary ambitions and the infrastructure monopoly they enable carries existential risk for the firms involved.
As Musk and supporters see it, the space economy’s upside dwarfs Earth-bound valuation models, making today’s dips temporary in a decades-long ascent.
Tesla is about to make parking in busy lots less stressful than ever
Tesla starts preparing for Optimus in its smartphone app
