Investor's Corner
Tesla Gigafactory 3’s rise shows that it’s too early to dismiss Elon Musk’s ‘sci-fi projects’
A drone flyover of Gigafactory 3 on Monday has revealed that the factory shell of Tesla’s China-based electric car production facility is all but complete. Only a few small sections of the massive general assembly building do not have roofing yet, and the same is true for Gigafactory 3’s walls. Around the facility’s grounds, workers continued their activities, and cement trucks were seen heading inside the massive factory, hinting at the work being started inside.
Other sections of Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 complex are coming to form as well, including what appears to be dormitories for employees and a possible open-air event staging area. Outside the factory, several large trucks are loaded with massive machinery, seemingly intended for use on the 24/7 construction site. Shanghai officials have noted that Gigafactory 3’s initial construction would be done by May. Considering the progress of the buildout as of Monday, this target appears more than feasible.
The pace of Gigafactory 3’s construction is unprecedented, and it is one that will likely make it to books in the future. China itself, which holds a solid reputation for quick, surgically-precise buildouts, will probably set records with the construction of Gigafactory 3. As Tesla’s electric car factory in Shanghai rises, it is pertinent to note that there was a time, not too long ago, when the idea of Gigafactory 3’s factory shell being completed in roughly five months was considered implausible.
Just over two months ago, Gigafactory 3 was comprised of leveled ground and one steel pillar. A few months before that, it was but a muddy field. Go back a few more months and one will find Elon Musk’s initial announcement for the project’s target timeframe, where the brazen CEO estimated that Tesla would start producing electric cars in the Shanghai facility within two years from construction. During that time, Musk’s two-year timeframe was considered in the United States as “not feasible.” Convention demands car factories to be built over years, after all.
Yet here it stands now, tangible, and ahead of Elon Musk’s own target schedule. After Gigafactory 3’s shell is completed this May, the facility is set to undergo ground hardening in June. These will be followed by pipeline communication, equipment stationing, equipment commissioning, and trial production runs, which could start as early as September barring any unexpected issues. This means that by the end of the year, Gigafactory 3 might already hit some of its stride in the production of Tesla’s midsize electric sedan.
Tesla is simply not a conventional company, and neither is its projects. It’s a disruptor that has reached a critical mass — no longer small enough to be ignored, but not yet large enough to warrant unquestionable respect. This, together with Elon Musk’s persona, both in real life and online, has brought a lot of attention to Tesla. Unfortunately, most of this attention today are predominantly negative, as could be seen in the overarching narrative surrounding the company. An example of this could be seen in a recent note published by Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, where he criticized Tesla and Elon Musk for pursuing “sci-fi” projects like Full Self-Driving, an in-house insurance service, and a Robotaxi network.
Elon Musk is an optimist, and this shows when he announced target timeframes for projects like the Model 3 ramp or the release of features such as Advanced Summon. Nevertheless, Elon Musk might tend to overpromise and deliver late; but his ideas, his visions, are not implausible. They might sound like ideas that are straight out of science fiction, but he, Tesla, SpaceX, and his other ventures are hard at work making that science fiction a reality. There was a time, after all, where people thought replacing the yellow pages, or managing their money through the internet, or landing rockets on a drone ship, was an insane idea. And yet here we are.
Here’s Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 site as of Monday, May 20, 2019.
And here’s the site back in late January.
A Tesla analyst today said that investors should not lose sight of what is truly important in the grand scheme of being a shareholder, and that any near-term drama between CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump should not outshine the progress made by the company.
Gene Munster of Deepwater Management said that Tesla’s progress in autonomy is a much larger influence and a significantly bigger part of the company’s story than any disagreement between political policies.
Munster appeared on CNBC‘s “Closing Bell” yesterday to reiterate this point:
“One thing that is critical for Tesla investors to remember is that what’s going on with the business, with autonomy, the progress that they’re making, albeit early, is much bigger than any feud that is going to happen week-to-week between the President and Elon. So, I understand the reaction, but ultimately, I think that cooler heads will prevail. If they don’t, autonomy is still coming, one way or the other.”
BREAKING: GENE MUNSTER SAYS — $TSLA AUTONOMY IS “MUCH BIGGER” THAN ANY FEUD 👀
He says robotaxis are coming regardless ! pic.twitter.com/ytpPcwUTFy
— TheSonOfWalkley (@TheSonOfWalkley) July 2, 2025
This is a point that other analysts like Dan Ives of Wedbush and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest also made yesterday.
On two occasions over the past month, Musk and President Trump have gotten involved in a very public disagreement over the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which officially passed through the Senate yesterday and is making its way to the House of Representatives.
Musk is upset with the spending in the bill, while President Trump continues to reiterate that the Tesla CEO is only frustrated with the removal of an “EV mandate,” which does not exist federally, nor is it something Musk has expressed any frustration with.
In fact, Musk has pushed back against keeping federal subsidies for EVs, as long as gas and oil subsidies are also removed.
Nevertheless, Ives and Wood both said yesterday that they believe the political hardship between Musk and President Trump will pass because both realize the world is a better place with them on the same team.
Munster’s perspective is that, even though Musk’s feud with President Trump could apply near-term pressure to the stock, the company’s progress in autonomy is an indication that, in the long term, Tesla is set up to succeed.
Tesla launched its Robotaxi platform in Austin on June 22 and is expanding access to more members of the public. Austin residents are now reporting that they have been invited to join the program.
Elon Musk
Tesla surges following better-than-expected delivery report
Tesla saw some positive momentum during trading hours as it reported its deliveries for Q2.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) surged over four percent on Wednesday morning after the company reported better-than-expected deliveries. It was nearly right on consensus estimations, as Wall Street predicted the company would deliver 385,000 cars in Q2.
Tesla reported that it delivered 384,122 vehicles in Q2. Many, including those inside the Tesla community, were anticipating deliveries in the 340,000 to 360,000 range, while Wall Street seemed to get it just right.
Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage
Despite Tesla meeting consensus estimations, there were real concerns about what the company would report for Q2.
There were reportedly brief pauses in production at Gigafactory Texas during the quarter and the ramp of the new Model Y configuration across the globe were expected to provide headwinds for the EV maker during the quarter.
At noon on the East Coast, Tesla shares were up about 4.5 percent.
It is expected that Tesla will likely equal the number of deliveries it completed in both of the past two years.
It has hovered at the 1.8 million mark since 2023, and it seems it is right on pace to match that once again. Early last year, Tesla said that annual growth would be “notably lower” than expected due to its development of a new vehicle platform, which will enable more affordable models to be offered to the public.
These cars are expected to be unveiled at some point this year, as Tesla said they were “on track” to be produced in the first half of the year. Tesla has yet to unveil these vehicle designs to the public.
Dan Ives of Wedbush said in a note to investors this morning that the company’s rebound in China in June reflects good things to come, especially given the Model Y and its ramp across the world.
He also said that Musk’s commitment to the company and return from politics played a major role in the company’s performance in Q2:
“If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”
Ives maintained his $500 price target and the ‘Outperform’ rating he held on the stock:
“Tesla’s future is in many ways the brightest it’s ever been in our view given autonomous, FSD, robotics, and many other technology innovations now on the horizon with 90% of the valuation being driven by autonomous and robotics over the coming years but Musk needs to focus on driving Tesla and not putting his political views first. We maintain our OUTPERFORM and $500 PT.”
Moving forward, investors will look to see some gradual growth over the next few quarters. At worst, Tesla should look to match 2023 and 2024 full-year delivery figures, which could be beaten if the automaker can offer those affordable models by the end of the year.
Investor's Corner
Tesla delivers 384,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, deploys 9.6 GWh in energy storage
The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has released its Q2 2025 vehicle delivery and production report. As per the report, the company delivered over 384,000 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, while deploying 9.6 GWh in energy storage. Vehicle production also reached 410,244 units for the quarter.
Model 3/Y dominates output, ahead of earnings call
Of the 410,244 vehicles produced during the quarter, 396,835 were Model 3 and Model Y units, while 13,409 were attributed to Tesla’s other models, which includes the Cybertruck and Model S/X variants. Deliveries followed a similar pattern, with 373,728 Model 3/Ys delivered and 10,394 from other models, totaling 384,122.
The quarter’s 9.6 GWh energy storage deployment marks one of Tesla’s highest to date, signaling continued strength in the Megapack and Powerwall segments.
Year-on-year deliveries edge down, but energy shows resilience
Tesla will share its full Q2 2025 earnings results after the market closes on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, with a live earnings call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CT / 5:30 p.m. ET. The company will publish its quarterly update at ir.tesla.com, followed by a Q&A webcast featuring company leadership. Executives such as CEO Elon Musk are expected to be in attendance.
Tesla investors are expected to inquire about several of the company’s ongoing projects in the upcoming Q2 2025 earnings call. Expected topics include the new Model Y ramp across the United States, China, and Germany, as well as the ramp of FSD in territories outside the US and China. Questions about the company’s Robotaxi business, as well as the long-referenced but yet to be announced affordable models are also expected.
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