Investor's Corner
Tesla Gigafactory 3 seems to be preparing for the Model Y production ramp
There is a lot at stake riding in Tesla’s Gigafactory 3, the first facility of the electric car maker that would be established and operated in a foreign country. Giga 3 is set to be the first of Tesla’s next-generation Gigafactories as well, since the facility would be capable of producing both battery packs and electric cars on-site.
Tesla actually lucked out with Gigafactory 3, as it was able to secure a permit from the Chinese government to operate the facility without a local partner earlier this year. Tesla’s business license for the facility, which would be built in Shanghai, was granted to Tesla Motors Hong Kong Co., LLC, the electric car maker’s HK division, last May. The company also registered the capital for the Shanghai site at 100 million yuan, which corresponds to about $15.8 million. Interestingly, the initial filings of the company were absent of any references to battery production and electric car manufacturing.
That is, until now. A recent report from Sina Finance has noted that Tesla (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. recently registered a capital increase for its upcoming facility. The increase was significant, with the electric car maker now listing a capital of 4.67 billion yuan, which corresponds to about $680 million. Tesla Shanghai also revised its filings for the facility, mentioning references to battery separators, battery management systems, as well as electric car components such as powertrains and other electronic devices that are utilized in the company’s vehicles.
Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 would likely rival Gigafactory 1 in size once it’s completed, especially considering that the Shanghai-based facility will be producing both batteries and electric cars. Despite this, Elon Musk noted in the company’s Q2 2018 earnings call that Giga 3 would likely not cost as much as Gigafactory 1, which is expected to cost up to $5 billion once it’s complete. Musk’s initial estimate for Giga 3 is $2 billion, on account of optimizations that it learned from the Model 3 ramp.
“With respect to Gigafactory CapEx, I think we learned a tremendous amount with Gigafactory 1, and we’re confident that we can do the Gigafactory in China for a lot less. I think it’s probably closer to — this is just a guess, but probably closer to $2 billion, and that should be at a higher — and that would be sort of at the 250,000-vehicle per year rate. So I think we can be a lot more efficient with CapEx, and that would include at least a factory module and pack production, body shop, paint shop, and general assembly. Might even be less than that, but that’s about the right number for that,” Musk said.
A reporter from Beijing Business Daily noted that with the revised capital, around 30% of the funds are now ready for Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory. Perhaps even more notable were reports that the Shanghai government is assisting Tesla to obtain loans from Chinese banks to fund the construction of the facility.
It should be noted that Gigafactory 3 does not need to be fully completed before the facility could start building battery packs and electric cars. Gigafactory 1, for example, is less than 30% complete, but it is already supporting the demand for battery packs and powertrains from the Model 3 production ramp. The Model 3’s current production pace is no joke, either, as the company is reportedly on track to building at least 50,000 Model 3 this quarter.
With this in mind, Tesla only needs to get critical portions of Gigafactory 3 working before the facility could start producing vehicles. Such a strategy actually taps into a particularly impressive expertise of the country’s workforce, considering that China’s builders are proficient in quickly constructing modular structures. This type of construction was showcased by the country’s workforce when it completed the construction of a 57-story skyscraper in just 19 days back in 2015. If Tesla opts to adopt a similar construction method for Gigafactory 3, the facility could come alive well in time for the production of the company’s next big vehicle — the Tesla Model Y.
Elon Musk has noted that the Model Y would likely be built sometime next year. Being a crossover SUV, the Model Y would compete in one of the auto industry’s most competitive markets. The Model Y is expected to have a demand of up to 1 million vehicles per year, making it even more popular than the Model 3. Tesla has been quite tight-lipped about the facility where the Model Y would be constructed. Considering Tesla’s updates with Gigafactory 3, as well as Elon Musk’s past statements about the Model Y being built in China; there is a good chance that Giga 3’s vehicle production lines would likely be designed for the electric crossover.
Back in July, Tesla noted that it expects Gigafactory 3’s vehicle production to start roughly two years after construction begins. In true Tesla fashion, the company intends to ramp the facility’s production rate to 500,000 vehicles per year within 2-3 years. This aggressive timeline has been met by doubts in the United States, with Consumer Edge Research senior auto analyst James Albertine dubbing the company’s targets as “not feasible.” Fortunately for Tesla, its is a company that operates best when it is proving its skeptics wrong.
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst: ‘near zero chance’ Elon Musk’s $1T comp package is rejected
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
A Tesla analyst says there is “zero chance” that CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package is rejected, a testament to the loyalty and belief many shareholders and investors have in the frontman.
Tesla investors will vote on November 6 at the annual Shareholder Meeting to approve a new compensation package for Musk, revealed by the company’s Board of Directors earlier this month.
The package, if approved, would give Musk the opportunity to earn $1 trillion in stock, an ownership concentration of over 27 percent (a major request of Musk’s), and a solidified future at the company.
The Tesla Community on X, the social media platform Musk bought in 2023, is overwhelmingly in favor of the pay package, though a handful of skeptics remain.
Nevertheless, the big pulls of this vote are held by proxy firms and other large-scale investors. Two of them, Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) and Glass Lewis, said they would be voting against Musk’s proposed compensation plan.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
Today, the State Board of Administration of Florida (SBA) said it would vote in favor of Musk’s newly-proposed pay day, making it the first large-scale shareholder to announce it would support the CEO’s pay.
One analyst said that Musk’s payday is inevitable. Gary Black of the Future Fund said today there is a “near-zero chance” that shareholders will allow Musk’s pay package to be rejected:
“There is a near-zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting.”
He added an alternative perspective from Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who said that he had a better chance of starting for the New York Yankees than the comp package not being approved.
There is a near zero chance that $TSLA shareholders will vote down Elon’s new proposed comp plan at the Nov 6 shareholders’ meeting. As Wedbush analyst Dan Ives (@divestech) colorfully put it in a Yahoo Finance interview on October 23rd: “I have a better chance of starting for…
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) October 27, 2025
Black’s the Future Fund sold its Tesla holdings earlier this year. He explained that the firm believed the company’s valuation was too disconnected from fundamentals, citing the P/E ratio of 188x and declining earnings estimates.
The firm maintained its $310 price target, and shares were trading at $356.90 that day.
Shares closed at $452.42 today.
The latest predictions from betting platform Kalshi have shown Musk’s comp package has a 94 percent chance of being approved:
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) October 20, 2025
Tesla analysts are expecting big things from the stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) after many firms made price target adjustments following the Q3 Earnings Call.
Last Wednesday, Tesla reported earnings with record revenue but missed EPS estimates.
It blew delivery expectations out of the water with its strongest quarter in company history, but Tesla’s future relies on the development of autonomous vehicles, robotics, and AI, which many bullish firms highlight as major strengths.
The earnings call reiterated those points, along with the belief that Tesla CEO Elon Musk should be rewarded with a newly proposed pay package that would enable him to gain $1 trillion in wealth if he comes through on a lengthy list of performance tranches.
Nine Wall Street firms made adjustments to their outlook on Tesla shares in the form of price target increases since last Wednesday’s call, all of which are indications of big expectations for the stock moving forward.
Here are the nine firms that made moves:
- Truist – $280 to $406, reiterated Hold rating
- Roth MKM – $395 to $404, reiterated Buy rating
- Cantor Fitzgerald – $355 to $510, reiterated Overweight rating
- Deutsche Bank – $435 to $440, reiterated Buy rating
- Mizhuo – $450 to $485, reiterated Outperform rating
- New Street Research – $465 to $520, reiterated Buy rating
- Evercore ISI – $235 to $300, reiterated In Line rating
- Freedom Capital Markets – $338 to $406, upgraded to Hold rating
- China Renaissance – $349 to $380, reiterated Hold rating
The boosts in price target are largely due to Tesla’s future projects, as Roth MKM, Cantor Fitzgerald, Mizuho, New Street Research, and Evercore ISI all explicitly mention Tesla’s autonomy, robotics, and AI potential as the main factors for its price target boosts.
Cantor Fitzgerald raises Tesla PT To $510, citing Cybercab, Semi, and AI momentum
It is no surprise that many firms are adjusting their outlook on Tesla shares considerably in an effort to prepare for the company’s transition to even more of a tech company than a car company.
The issue with many analysts is that they treat the company’s vehicle deliveries as the main indicator of value.
However, Tesla has a robust energy division, which was a major contributor to the company’s strong margins and gross profit in Q3, as well as its prowess in robotics and AI.
Additionally, the company is seen as a key player in the autonomy field, especially after launching driverless rides on a Robotaxi platform in Austin and expanding a similar program in the Bay Area.
Tesla shares were up over 5 percent at 12:18 p.m. on the East Coast.
Investor's Corner
Tesla warns Elon Musk could step down if shareholders reject pay plan
Denholm’s letter emphasized Tesla is at a “critical inflection point” as it scales AI-driven projects such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus.
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm has urged shareholders to approve CEO Elon Musk’s new 2025 Performance Award ahead of the November 6 Annual Meeting, warning that rejecting it could risk losing his leadership.
In a letter posted on Tesla’s official handle on X, Denholm stated that the company must “foster an environment that motivates Elon to achieve great things,” or risk losing “his time, talent, and vision,” which she described as essential to Tesla’s success.
Retaining Musk amid Tesla’s critical transition
Denholm’s letter emphasized Tesla is at a “critical inflection point” as it scales AI-driven projects such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Optimus. She argued that Musk’s leadership remains vital as Tesla pushes toward becoming “the leading provider of autonomous solutions and the most valuable company in the world.” Without a new performance-based plan, Denholm warned, Musk could step away, potentially costing Tesla significant long-term value.
“If we fail to foster an environment that motivates Elon to achieve great things through an equitable pay-for-performance plan, we run the risk that he gives up his executive position, and Tesla may lose his time, talent, and vision, which have been essential to delivering extraordinary shareholder returns,” the Tesla Board Chair stated.
The board’s proposed 2025 Performance Award aligns Musk’s compensation with ambitious targets while extending his commitment for at least 7.5 more years. Denholm stated that the vote is a defining moment for Tesla’s future direction, adding that the plan was designed to keep Musk focused on innovation while maintaining governance discipline. “A vote here is both an endorsement of Elon’s vision and a vote for Tesla’s carefully tailored strategy,” she said.
Musk’s pay history is rooted in performance
Elon Musk’s pay history with Tesla has long been unconventional. For years, he has declined a regular salary, instead directly tying his earnings to Tesla’s ability to meet ambitious production and market-value goals. His 2018 performance award, approved by shareholders at a time when Tesla had a market cap of just about $59 billion, granted him stock options only when Tesla reached aggressive growth milestones, such as growing the company’s market cap to $650 billion.
At the time, the milestones included $50 billion additions to Tesla’s market cap, which were considered by many to be unrealistic. Those goals were ultimately met by the electric vehicle maker, but a Delaware court later rescinded the plan in January 2024, calling it an “unfathomable sum.”
Tesla shareholders reaffirmed support for Musk’s pay in 2024, even as legal disputes continued. The board then issued an interim equity package valued around $29 billion while developing a new long-term plan earlier this year. Since then, Tesla’s Board has proposed Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, which could be worth nearly $1 trillion, but only if Musk were to grow Tesla into the world’s most valuable company with a market cap of $8.5 trillion, among other aggressive and ambitious targets.
SpaceX opens up free Starlink service for those impacted by Hurricane Melissa
Tesla board chair reiterates widely unmentioned point of Musk comp plan
The truth about Tesla ‘Mad Max’ mode from an actual user
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoSpaceX posts Starship booster feat that’s so nutty, it doesn’t even look real
-
Elon Musk1 week agoTesla Full Self-Driving gets an offer to be insured for ‘almost free’
-
News1 week agoElon Musk confirms Tesla FSD V14.2 will see widespread rollout
-
News2 weeks agoTesla is adding an interesting feature to its centerscreen in a coming update
-
News2 weeks agoTesla launches new interior option for Model Y
-
News2 weeks agoTesla widens rollout of new Full Self-Driving suite to more owners
-
Elon Musk2 weeks agoTesla CEO Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package hits first adversity from proxy firm
-
News1 week agoTesla might be doing away with a long-included feature with its vehicles