Investor's Corner
Tesla investor Ron Baron has $1.5B in TSLA stock, and that’s not enough for him
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shareholder and legendary investor Ron Baron would like more money to build an even larger position in the California-based electric carmaker. He also commented on the positive outlook for Elon Musk’s currently-privatized aerospace company, SpaceX.
“I would like to be able to get more money to buy more TSLA actually,” Baron said on an episode of CNBC’s Squawk Box. “I think that what’s going to happen with that stock is that…when people were selling it short for the past ten years, and the stock quadrupled by the way. But for the first nine years, it didn’t change so much. It would go up and go down. But there was a good reason why people were selling it short.”
Baron went on to explain the difficulties of starting an automotive company and keeping it open.
"I would like to be able to get more money to buy more @Tesla actually," says legendary investor Ron Baron. $TSLA pic.twitter.com/sCt9dr4mDu
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) June 9, 2020
“The reason was that it is very, very hard to start a car company, almost impossible. So you wouldn’t dream that it would be possible to go out there and hire 50,000 employees, and design cars, and raise the capital that you need, and have a brand that everyone knows. Everyone knows the Tesla brand. My grandchildren, who are six and eight years old, they know the Tesla brand,” Baron added.
More impressively, Tesla has never spent money on advertising, but they continue to gain notoriety in the automotive and tech communities. This fact has Baron raving about the company’s potential outlook for the future.
He believes that “there’s ten times more to go” with Tesla, indicating the stock’s growth period is far from over.
Baron invested $357 million into Tesla in 2014, and his purchase has made him money hand over fist. Baron currently holds over 1.6 million shares of pop TSLA stock, worth over $1.5B at the current price of $949.92 per share.
As of June 5, Tesla holdings comprise 4.9% of Barron Opportunity Fund net assets, 20.4% of Baron Partners Fund, and 20.7% of Baron Focused Growth Fund. However, that is not Baron’s only bet on Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla.
SpaceX holdings, another one of Musk’s companies, comprise 5.7% of Baron Partners Fund and 5.6% of Baron Focused Growth Fund. CNBC says the investment legend owns 814,595 shares of SpaceX. Baron believes that the privately held aerospace company will grow by 20-times within the next ten years.
“That is an amazing opportunity as well,” Baron said. SpaceX recently became the first private entity to launch a pair of NASA astronauts into space during the Crew Dragon Demo-2 mission, which launched on May 30.
Tesla’s stock value has more than doubled since the beginning of 2020. On the first day of trading, the automaker’s price per share was $430.26. It closed at $949.92 on June 8.
Tesla shares soared 7.26% yesterday after news of the automaker’s resurgence of its Model 3 sedan in China. Tesla sold 11,095 units of the Model 3 in China in May, making it the best selling electric car in the country.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla received a price target boost from Morgan Stanley, according to a new note on Monday morning, but there is some considerable caution also being communicated over the next year or so.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco took over Tesla coverage for the firm from longtime bull Adam Jonas, who appears to be focusing on embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
Percoco took over and immediately adjusted the price target for Tesla from $410 to $425, and changed its rating on shares from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco said he believes Tesla is the leading company in terms of electric vehicles, manufacturing, renewable energy, and real-world AI, so it deserves a premium valuation. However, he admits the high expectations for the company could provide for a “choppy trading environment” for the next year.
He wrote:
“However, high expectations on the latter have brought the stock closer to fair valuation. While it is well understood that Tesla is more than an auto manufacturer, we expect a choppy trading environment for the TSLA shares over the next 12 months, as we see downside to estimates, while the catalysts for its non-auto businesses appear priced at current levels.”
Percoco also added that if market cap hurdles are achieved, Morgan Stanley would reduce its price target by 7 percent.
Perhaps the biggest change with Percoco taking over the analysis for Jonas is how he will determine the value of each individual project. For example, he believes Optimus is worth about $60 per share of equity value.
He went on to describe the potential value of Full Self-Driving, highlighting its importance to the Tesla valuation:
“Full Self Driving (FSD) is the crown jewel of Tesla’s auto business; we believe that its leading-edge personal autonomous driving offering is a real game changer, and will remain a significant competitive advantage over its EV and non-EV peers. As Tesla continues to improve its platform with increased levels of autonomy (i.e., hands-off, eyes-off), it will revolutionize the personal driving experience. It remains to be seen if others will be able to keep pace.”
Additionally, Percoco outlined both bear and bull cases for the stock. He believes $860 per share, “which could be in play in the next 12 months if Tesla manages through the EV-downturn,” while also scaling Robotaxi, executing on unsupervised FSD, and scaling Optimus, is in play for the bull case.
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Meanwhile, the bear case is placed at $145 per share, and “assumes greater competition and margin pressure across all business lines, embedding zero value for humanoids, slowing the growth curve for Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to reflect regulatory challenges in scaling a vision-only perception stack, and lowering market share and margin profile for the autos and energy businesses.”
Currently, Tesla shares are trading at around $441.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
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