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Tesla IR-compiled consensus listed at 480.5k deliveries for Q4, 1.8M for FY 2023

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Tesla’s Investor Relations team has shared a compiled analyst consensus for the company’s fourth quarter and full year 2023 vehicle deliveries. As per the EV maker, the current consensus for Tesla’s Q4 numbers is 480,483 vehicles. The consensus for the company’s full-year 2023 deliveries is 1,804,555 vehicles. 

The numbers were shared on X by Wall Street veteran and The Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black, who holds a bullish stance on the electric vehicle maker. As can be seen from the Tesla bull’s post, the IR-compiled consensus estimates were shared by Tesla VP of Investor Relations Martin Viecha.

Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2023 company-compiled delivery consensus is sourced from several firms. These include Baird, Barclays, Bernstein, Bank of America, Canaccord, Citibank, Cowen, Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Evercore ISI, Exane BNP, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, New Street Research, Oppenheimer, Piper Sandler, RBC, Truist, Tudor, UBS, Wedbush, Wells Fargo, and Wolfe. 

Similar to past years, Tesla’s IR-compiled delivery consensus expects the Model Y crossover and Model 3 sedan to do the heavy lifting for the company’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 numbers. Tesla’s IR-compiled estimates suggest that 18,652 Model S/X, 460,189 Model 3/Y, and 1,250 other vehicles, likely comprised of the Cybertruck and the Semi, were delivered in Q4 2023. 

Analysts also estimated that 64,557 Model S/X were sold during 2023, as well as a whopping 1,738,358 Model 3/Y. Analysts also expect that 1,251 other vehicles, which likely refer to the Cybertruck and the Semi, were delivered during the course of the year. These estimates suggest that Tesla was able to hit its target of delivering 1.8 million vehicles in a year. 

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Musk reiterated Tesla’s 1.8 million vehicle target during the Q3 2023 earnings call. “We continue to target expect to have around 1.8 million vehicle deliveries as stated earlier this year,” Musk said. 

Tesla is expected to release its Q4 and FY 2023 delivery and production report before the market opens on Tuesday, January 2, 2024. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us with news tips. Just send a message to simon@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2026 on Wednesday afternoon. Here’s what the company reported compared to what Wall Street analysts expected.

The earnings results come after Tesla reported a massive beat on vehicle deliveries for the second quarter, delivering 489,126 vehicles and building 451,758 cars during the three-month span.

This was a major shock for those on Wall Street as they anticipated somewhere around 400,000 deliveries for the quarter, and showed Tesla still has plenty of demand for its vehicles around the world and in the U.S. despite losing the $7,500 EV Tax Credit last year.

Tesla Q2 2026 Earnings Results

  • Non-GAAP EPS – $0.33 reported vs. $0.53 expected
  • Revenues – $28.236 billion reported vs. $26.4 billion expected
  • Free Cash Flow- -$1.092B
  • Profit -$ 4.751B

Tesla (beat/missed) analyst expectations, so the market response to the company’s quarter is what we will look for next.

Tesla shares closed today down just over 1 percent, trading at $374.01.

In the past, it has been anyone’s guess with what Tesla shares will do after they report earnings. Strong quarters have resulted in sharp drops, while lackluster quarters have seen the stock shoot up considerably.

Tesla will hold its Q2 2026 Earnings Call in about 90 minutes at 5:30 p.m. on the East Coast. Remarks will be made by CEO Elon Musk and other executives, who will shed some light on the investor questions that we covered earlier this week.

You can stream it below. Additionally, we will be doing our Live Blog on X and Facebook.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla Q2 Earnings: Here’s what to expect

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will report its earnings for the second quarter of 2026 this evening after market close, and investors and analysts are waiting anxiously to see what the company will report for the second three-month span of the year.

Analysts have already put out their expectations from a financial standpoint for the company’s second quarter, but what’s unknown is what Tesla plans to discuss during the call.

Financial Expectations

Wall Street consensus expectations put Tesla’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) at $0.53, while revenues are expected to come in around $26.4 billion.

This would compare to an EPS of $0.39 and $22.19 billion compared to Tesla’s Q2 2025. Last quarter, EPS came in at $0.41 on $22.387 billion of revenue. Additionally in Q1, Tesla beat analyst expectations, but shares dropped over 3 percent the following trading day.

What We Expect

In terms of discussions, Tesla earnings are pretty sporadic and depend on a handful of things, including current events, investor questions, and more.

Tesla uses a platform called Say to field questions from investors and analysts. These questions are what will be used during the call. Here are the top 5 from the Retail side and top 3 from the Institutional side:

Retail:

“Tesla has missed short-term guidance on robotaxi 3 earnings reports in a row, from 50% coverage of USA by end of 2025 to most recently 7 new cities in 1H26. What is keeping Tesla back from accomplishing these short term goals that they’ve set for themselves?”

“What are the main constraints to expanding robotaxi operations faster, and how do you see that lining up with Cybercab production?”

“What’s the current status of Optimus Gen 3 production ramp, initial deployment in factories, and external sales timeline/volume for 2027? What tasks can we expect the Optimus to perform by end of 2027?”

“To reward long-term Tesla retail shareholders for their loyalty, can you commit to achieving at least half of the goals outlined in your 2025 compensation plan before considering any offers to acquire or merge Tesla?”

“Why has growth of robotaxi vehicles stalled? When will we see cybercab start customer rides?”

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Institutional

“Previously, you’ve said Tesla would lead the R&D while SpaceX would lead production for Terafab. Can you provide an update on how that division of responsibilities is evolving, and any additional clarity on the expected capital contributions from Tesla and SpaceX?”

“For autonomous driving, Tesla’s fleet created a huge data advantage by collecting billions of real-world miles. That advantage doesn’t yet exist for Optimus. How should we think about data availability and its impact on Optimus development?”

“Why is it necessary to limit robotaxi operations within specific zones within cities to start? Will every city have to be rolled out this way?”
Tesla will report earnings for Q2 this evening with the Shareholder Deck at 4 p.m. ET, with the call starting around 5:30 p.m. ET.

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Elon Musk handed Grok something no other AI company can get their hands on

Elon Musk says SpaceX will feed engineering data into Grok’s next model, avoiding restricted material.

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Artistic concept rendering of SpaceX data being incorporated into a Grok AI model

Elon Musk said Tuesday that SpaceX will feed its internal engineering data into the next major training run for Grok, the AI model now folded into SpaceX following February’s merger. In a post on X, Musk wrote that SpaceX’s “massive corpus of world-class engineering data,” excluding anything restricted under U.S. arms export law, will be added during supplemental training of what he called the “2T run,” a reference to a roughly two trillion parameter model that would nearly double the parameters behind the latest Grok 4.5 that’s rolling out.

The excluded material that Musk is referring to would fall under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which restricts export of technical data tied to defense and space hardware. That likely rules out propulsion specifics for Merlin and Raptor engines along with guidance and control details for SpaceX’s launch vehicles, but leaves manufacturing knowledge, materials science, and Starlink hardware design on the table.

The announcement extends a pattern that has been building since SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut in June, when the company went public with Grok and xAI’s Colossus supercomputer folded into the pitch to investors.

Days after that listing, SpaceX closed its $60 billion all stock acquisition of coding startup Cursor, giving xAI both enterprise software distribution and a stream of real world developer data to train on. Grok 4.5 launched July 8 running partly on that Cursor training data, with Musk describing it as roughly comparable to Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 but faster and cheaper to run.

Feeding SpaceX’s own engineering data into the next AI model follows the same logic Musk has applied across xAI’s sister companies. Tesla supplies real world driving data and manufacturing expertise, X supplies conversational data, and now SpaceX supplies aerospace engineering data built up since 2002.

Musk did not give a release date for the upcoming AI model, referred to elsewhere as Grok 4.6. He has said the two trillion parameter run is in its final training phase and expected to wrap this week.

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