Investor's Corner
TSLA’s resilience in the stock market is partly due to the ‘Tesla Killers” failure
To say that the last few months have been a roller coaster ride for Tesla is an understatement. Just a few months ago, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) was closing in on trading below $250 per share, and it was being bashed by a continuous stream of criticism from Wall Street. One analyst even called Tesla “no longer investable” due to Elon Musk’s behavior on Twitter. Short-sellers bet on a dramatic drop, with one stating that it was apparent “Tesla is having difficulties paying their bills.”
And yet, no dramatic drop happened. The company surprised Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter instead, and the stock has been up since then. Today, TSLA is trading near the $370 level, close to the highs it achieved on the day Elon Musk posted his now-infamous “funding secured” tweet. After a year of volatility, Tesla stock is up nearly 18% as of Wednesday’s close. That’s quite notable, considering that the S&P 500 is down 1.4% this year so far.
Apart from the company’s improving fundamentals, a good part of the Tesla narrative today is the company’s lead in the electric car market. One of the most notable bear thesis against the company is the notion that once legacy automakers decide to dip their feet into the production of EVs, Tesla would be overwhelmed and outgunned. Several automakers did release their first premium all-electric cars this year. But instead of overwhelming Tesla with their expertise (hence the term “Tesla Killer”), legacy auto’s first EVs have fallen short of the standards set by the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker.
In a recent note, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch admonished traditional carmakers and their electric creations, stating that they present what could be described as a “slow and disappointing” competition for Tesla. JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha was a bit more direct than Rusch, remarking that “It is incredible to me, at the end of 2018, that the major automakers still haven’t figured out how to respond competitively to Tesla.”
Tesla’s vehicles compete on the luxury segment, where brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are reigning. This year, three notable premium electric cars emerged by legacy carmakers — the Mercedes-Benz EQC, the Audi e-tron, and the Jaguar I-PACE — and while each is an admirable vehicle on their own, the EVs themselves include flaws that make them inferior to Tesla. Both the EQC and the e-tron incited questions about their real range when the vehicles were unveiled, and the Jaguar I-PACE, despite being well-received by critics, is far less efficient than an older Tesla Model X.
Tesla’s lead in the electric car segment was even acknowledged by UBS, which has a history of taking a bearish stance on the electric car maker. Following a teardown of the vehicle and a comparison between the Model 3 and competitors like the BMW i3 and the Chevy Bolt, UBS concluded that instead of being the underdog in the EV market, “Tesla has won the race and leads the championship,” thanks to its superior battery, powertrain, and overall tech.
As Tesla approaches the end of what could be yet another impressive quarter, the company continues to garner votes of confidence from Wall Street. Just recently, Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock while raising his price target from $411 to $465. Kallo cited the strengthening narrative surrounding the company, which changed from negative to positive in recent months.
“We believe the narrative will continue to change from ‘TSLA will never make money’ to ‘TSLA can be sustainably profitable,’” Kallo wrote in a note Thursday. “The narrative on TSLA, particularly in the middle of 2018, was as negative as we have experienced in our coverage, but we believe sentiment will continue to improve as the company proves it can be self-supportive, which should drive sustained share appreciation,” Kallo wrote.
With competitors only highlighting Tesla’s lead in the EV market, the potential of Tesla in the global stage remains vast. The Model 3 alone, which continues to sell well despite the US’ preference for pickup trucks and SUVs, is expected to be popular in Europe, whose sedan market is notably larger than that of America. With these factors in play, as well as the absence of notable competition from fellow luxury carmakers in the near future, the next year could prove to be one impressive ride for Tesla.
As of writing, Tesla is trading +1.20% at $371.01 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) endured one of its sharpest single-day declines in years on July 23, tumbling approximately 14.5 percent and closing near $320 after opening the session around $374. The drop erased more than $140 billion in market value amid heavy trading volume and left the shares at multi-week lows.
The sell-off followed the company’s second-quarter 2026 results, released the previous evening. Tesla reported record revenue of $28.2 billion, up 26 percent year over year, driven by a Q2-record 480,126 vehicle deliveries. Energy storage deployments also rose strongly.
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings results: miss on EPS, beat on revenue
Yet profitability disappointed sharply. Operating income fell 57 percent to $398 million, compressing the operating margin to just 1.4 percent. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.33, well below the roughly $0.53 analysts had expected. Free cash flow turned negative by $1.1 billion as capital expenditures surged 142 percent to $5.8 billion, largely tied to accelerated spending on artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous systems.
The losses on capex were expected, as Tesla said it would be spending heavily in 2026.
Investors also reacted to lingering uncertainty surrounding key product timelines. During the Earnings Call, management reiterated ambitions for Robotaxi deployment and the Optimus humanoid robot, but offered limited new concrete milestones, renewing questions about execution pace that have long accompanied Tesla’s ambitious roadmap.
The magnitude of the decline places it among Tesla’s more severe one-day percentage losses since its 2010 initial public offering. Historically, the two largest single-day drops (split-adjusted) remain September 8, 2020, when shares fell 21.1 percent amid broader market volatility and valuation concerns, and January 13, 2012, with a 19.3 percent plunge during the company’s early growth struggles.
Other notable declines include an 18.6 percent drop on March 16, 2020, at the onset of pandemic-related market turmoil. Thursday’s move ranks roughly ninth on the all-time list but stands out as the steepest in more than a year.
Despite the short-term pain, Tesla’s long-term trajectory has repeatedly recovered from such volatility. The latest results underscore both the strength of its core automotive and energy businesses and the near-term costs of heavy investment in next-generation technologies.
In a striking revelation that underscores the lucrative crossover between Big Tech and space exploration, Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, disclosed a massive $94.1 billion equity stake in SpaceX following the rocket company’s blockbuster initial public offering earlier this year.
The disclosure came in Alphabet’s quarterly filing, marking the first time the long-held private investment has been publicly valued at market prices. Google was an early backer, investing alongside Fidelity in 2015 with roughly $500-900 million at a time when SpaceX was valued around $12 billion.
That bet has delivered extraordinary returns, roughly a hundredfold, transforming a strategic play on satellite internet and launch capabilities into one of Alphabet’s largest assets.
Google, $GOOGL, has said they hold $94 billion in SpaceX, $SPCX, shares after IPO.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 23, 2026
Of the total holding, approximately $80 billion remains subject to short-term post-IPO lockup restrictions, preventing near-term sales. An additional $14.1 billion faces longer-term restrictions, extending into the third quarter of 2027. This structure limits immediate liquidity but protects against market volatility as SpaceX transitions into public trading.
The SpaceX position contributed significantly to gains in Alphabet’s broader investment portfolio, which also includes a major stake in AI leader Anthropic. Combined, these holdings helped drive nearly $100 billion in investment gains during the second quarter, providing a substantial boost to net income amid ongoing AI spending pressures.
Analysts view the disclosure as validation of Alphabet’s venture strategy beyond its core search and cloud businesses. The investment aligns with deeper ties, including reported multi-billion-dollar deals for AI computing capacity on SpaceX infrastructure. As SpaceX advances Starship flights, Starlink expansion, and ambitious Mars goals under Elon Musk, Google’s stake positions it to benefit from the commercialization of space.
For Alphabet, the windfall highlights how patient, forward-looking bets in transformative sectors can yield outsized rewards. While lockups temper short-term impact, the holding cements SpaceX as a cornerstone of Alphabet’s diversified portfolio in an era where aerospace, AI, and connectivity increasingly intersect. Investors will watch closely as restrictions lift and SpaceX’s public performance unfolds.
Elon Musk
Tesla Semi finally has an FSD timeline and it’s waiting on the Cybercab
Elon Musk told investors Semi self-driving should start working by early 2027, per today’s earnings.
During Wednesday’s’ Tesla Q2 earnings call, an analyst asked Elon Musk when Tesla would look at autonomy for the Semi. His answer set a real timeline for the first time, noting that self-driving on the Tesla Semi is expected to start working “around the end of this year or early next year”.
Musk framed the delay as a matter of priority, not capability. Tesla’s self-driving team is currently focused on Model 3, Model Y, and Cybercab, the vehicles that make up the overwhelming majority of Tesla’s fleet. Since Semi trucks on the road remain a small fraction of that total even after the recent Nevada factory ramp, Musk said it made more sense to keep the software team’s attention on what he called “the march of nines of safety” for the higher volume vehicles first. Autonomous Semi development is “taking a bit of a backseat for the next six months or so,” he said, before adding that it “will definitely be working next year and in time for the scale-up to high production of the Tesla Semi.”
Tesla Semi’s official battery capacity leaked by California regulators
The timeline lines up with what’s already been showing up on public roads. In June, a Tesla Semi was spotted in Sunnyvale wearing a full validation rig, the same rooftop sensor array Tesla mounts on vehicles ahead of an FSD milestone.
A second unit was seen near Fremont days later with a matching camera suite and lens washers. Separately, Tesla analyst Nic Cruz Patane posted video this month of the production Semi’s exterior camera array, ten AI4 based units built directly into the truck rather than added later.
Tesla Semi AI4 cameras. The production version has 10 cameras on its exterior.
These trucks are designed to be autonomous. pic.twitter.com/GH3BamxIBQ
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) April 14, 2026
Musk also gave the reason autonomy on the Semi matters in the first place, a persistent shortage of qualified truck drivers. “There is a really serious shortage of truckers,” he said on the call, framing a self-driving Semi as important both for addressing that shortage and for improving safety and comfort for the drivers running the truck today.
The timing also tracks with the Semi’s production reality. Tesla’s Q2 shareholder letter, dropped language promising the Semi would reach volume production this year. Musk pointed to 4680 battery cell output as the near-term constraint on Semi and Cybercab production. A software timeline landing in early 2027 gives Tesla’s autonomy team room to work while the hardware ramp catches up behind it.
It’s worth nothing that this isn’t necessarily a promise the Semi ships driverless next year. Musk’s own language, self-driving “working” by early 2027, describes internal validation catching up to hardware already riding on every production truck, not a public unsupervised rollout.
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