Investor's Corner
TSLA’s resilience in the stock market is partly due to the ‘Tesla Killers” failure
To say that the last few months have been a roller coaster ride for Tesla is an understatement. Just a few months ago, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) was closing in on trading below $250 per share, and it was being bashed by a continuous stream of criticism from Wall Street. One analyst even called Tesla “no longer investable” due to Elon Musk’s behavior on Twitter. Short-sellers bet on a dramatic drop, with one stating that it was apparent “Tesla is having difficulties paying their bills.”
And yet, no dramatic drop happened. The company surprised Wall Street by posting $6.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter instead, and the stock has been up since then. Today, TSLA is trading near the $370 level, close to the highs it achieved on the day Elon Musk posted his now-infamous “funding secured” tweet. After a year of volatility, Tesla stock is up nearly 18% as of Wednesday’s close. That’s quite notable, considering that the S&P 500 is down 1.4% this year so far.
Apart from the company’s improving fundamentals, a good part of the Tesla narrative today is the company’s lead in the electric car market. One of the most notable bear thesis against the company is the notion that once legacy automakers decide to dip their feet into the production of EVs, Tesla would be overwhelmed and outgunned. Several automakers did release their first premium all-electric cars this year. But instead of overwhelming Tesla with their expertise (hence the term “Tesla Killer”), legacy auto’s first EVs have fallen short of the standards set by the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker.
In a recent note, Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch admonished traditional carmakers and their electric creations, stating that they present what could be described as a “slow and disappointing” competition for Tesla. JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha was a bit more direct than Rusch, remarking that “It is incredible to me, at the end of 2018, that the major automakers still haven’t figured out how to respond competitively to Tesla.”
Tesla’s vehicles compete on the luxury segment, where brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi are reigning. This year, three notable premium electric cars emerged by legacy carmakers — the Mercedes-Benz EQC, the Audi e-tron, and the Jaguar I-PACE — and while each is an admirable vehicle on their own, the EVs themselves include flaws that make them inferior to Tesla. Both the EQC and the e-tron incited questions about their real range when the vehicles were unveiled, and the Jaguar I-PACE, despite being well-received by critics, is far less efficient than an older Tesla Model X.
Tesla’s lead in the electric car segment was even acknowledged by UBS, which has a history of taking a bearish stance on the electric car maker. Following a teardown of the vehicle and a comparison between the Model 3 and competitors like the BMW i3 and the Chevy Bolt, UBS concluded that instead of being the underdog in the EV market, “Tesla has won the race and leads the championship,” thanks to its superior battery, powertrain, and overall tech.
As Tesla approaches the end of what could be yet another impressive quarter, the company continues to garner votes of confidence from Wall Street. Just recently, Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated his “Outperform” rating on TSLA stock while raising his price target from $411 to $465. Kallo cited the strengthening narrative surrounding the company, which changed from negative to positive in recent months.
“We believe the narrative will continue to change from ‘TSLA will never make money’ to ‘TSLA can be sustainably profitable,’” Kallo wrote in a note Thursday. “The narrative on TSLA, particularly in the middle of 2018, was as negative as we have experienced in our coverage, but we believe sentiment will continue to improve as the company proves it can be self-supportive, which should drive sustained share appreciation,” Kallo wrote.
With competitors only highlighting Tesla’s lead in the EV market, the potential of Tesla in the global stage remains vast. The Model 3 alone, which continues to sell well despite the US’ preference for pickup trucks and SUVs, is expected to be popular in Europe, whose sedan market is notably larger than that of America. With these factors in play, as well as the absence of notable competition from fellow luxury carmakers in the near future, the next year could prove to be one impressive ride for Tesla.
As of writing, Tesla is trading +1.20% at $371.01 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Investor's Corner
Tesla wins $508 price target from Stifel as Robotaxi rollout gains speed
The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Tesla received another round of bullish analyst updates this week, led by Stifel, raising its price target to $508 from $483 while reaffirming a “Buy” rating. The firm cited meaningful progress in Tesla’s robotaxi roadmap, ongoing Full Self-Driving enhancements, and the company’s long-term growth initiatives.
Robotaxi rollout, FSD updates, and new affordable cars
Stifel expects Tesla’s robotaxi fleet to expand into 8–10 major metropolitan areas by the end of 2025, including Austin, where early deployments without safety drivers are targeted before year-end. Additional markets under evaluation include Nevada, Florida, and Arizona, as noted in an Investing.com report. The firm also highlighted strong early performance for FSD Version 14, with upcoming releases adding new “reasoning capabilities” designed to improve complex decision-making using full 360-degree vision.
Tesla has also taken steps to offset the loss of U.S. EV tax credits by launching the Model Y Standard and Model 3 Standard at $39,990 and $36,990, Stifel noted. Both vehicles deliver more than 300 miles of range and are positioned to sustain demand despite shifting incentives. Stifel raised its EBITDA forecasts to $14.9 billion for 2025 and $19.5 billion for 2026, assigning partial valuation weightings to Tesla’s FSD, robotaxi, and Optimus initiatives.
TD Cowen also places an optimistic price target
TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating with a $509 price target after a research tour of Giga Texas, citing production scale and operational execution as key strengths. The firm posted its optimistic price target following a recent Mobility Bus tour in Austin. The tour included a visit to Giga Texas, which offered fresh insights into the company’s operations and prospects.
Additional analyst movements include Truist Securities maintaining its Hold rating following shareholder approval of Elon Musk’s compensation plan, viewing the vote as reducing leadership uncertainty.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Tesla receives major institutional boost with Nomura’s rising stake
The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained fresh institutional support, with Nomura Asset Management expanding its position in the automaker.
Nomura boosted its Tesla holdings by 4.2%, adding 47,674 shares and bringing its total position to more than 1.17 million shares valued at roughly $373.6 million. The move makes Tesla Nomura’s 10th-largest holding at about 1% of its entire portfolio.
Institutional investors and TSLA
Nomura’s filing was released alongside several other fund updates. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings by 11.8%, as noted in a MarketBeat report, and Revolve Wealth Partners lifted its TSLA position by 21.2%. Bison Wealth increased its Tesla stake by 52.2%, AMG National Trust Bank increased its position in shares of Tesla by 11.8%, and FAS Wealth Partners increased its TSLA holdings by 22.1%. About 66% of all outstanding Tesla shares are now owned by institutional investors.
The buying comes shortly after Tesla reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, posting $0.50 per share compared with the $0.48 consensus. Revenue reached $28.10 billion, topping Wall Street’s $24.98 billion estimate. Despite the earnings beat, Tesla continues to trade at a steep premium relative to peers, with a market cap hovering around $1.34 trillion and a price-to-earnings ratio near 270.
Recent insider sales
Some Tesla insiders have sold stock as of late. CFO Vaibhav Taneja sold 2,606 shares in early September for just over $918,000, reducing his personal stake by about 21%. Director James R. Murdoch executed a far larger sale, offloading 120,000 shares for roughly $42 million and trimming his holdings by nearly 15%. Over the past three months, Tesla insiders have collectively sold 202,606 shares valued at approximately $75.6 million, as per SEC disclosures.
Tesla is currently entering its next phase of growth, and if it is successful, it could very well become the world’s most valuable company as a result. The company has several high-profile projects expected to be rolled out in the coming years, including Optimus, the humanoid robot, and the Cybercab, an autonomous two-seater with the potential to change the face of roads across the globe.
@teslarati Tesla Full Self-Driving yields for pedestrians while human drivers do not…the future is here! #tesla #teslafsd #fullselfdriving ♬ 2 Little 2 Late – Levi & Mario
Investor's Corner
Ron Baron states Tesla and SpaceX are lifetime investments
Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron says he isn’t touching a single share of his personal Tesla holdings despite the recent selloff in the tech sector. Baron, one of Tesla’s longest-standing bulls, reiterated that his personal stake in the company remains fully intact even as volatility pressures the broader market.
Baron doubles down on Tesla
Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Baron stated that he is largely unfazed by the market downturn, describing his approach during the selloff as simply “looking” for opportunities. He emphasized that Tesla remains the centerpiece of his long-term strategy, recalling that although Baron Funds once sold 30% of its Tesla position due to client pressure, he personally refused to trim any of his personal holdings.
“We sold 30% for clients. I did not sell personally a single share,” he said. Baron’s exposure highlighted this stance, stating that roughly 40% of his personal net worth is invested in Tesla alone. The legendary investor stated that he has already made about $8 billion from Tesla from an investment of $400 million when he started, and believes that figure could rise fivefold over the next decade as the company scales its technology, manufacturing, and autonomy roadmap.
A lifelong investment
Baron’s commitment extends beyond Tesla. He stated that he also holds about 25% of his personal wealth in SpaceX and another 35% in Baron mutual funds, creating a highly concentrated portfolio built around Elon Musk–led companies. During the interview, Baron revisited a decades-old promise he made to his fund’s board when he sought approval to invest in publicly traded companies.
“I told the board, ‘If you let me invest a certain amount of money, then I will promise that I won’t sell any of my stock. I will be the last person out of the stock,’” he said. “I will not sell a single share of my shares until my clients sold 100% of their shares. … And I don’t expect to sell in my lifetime Tesla or SpaceX.”
Watch Ron Baron’s CNBC interview below.
@teslarati :rotating_light: This is why you need to use off-peak rates at Tesla Superchargers! #tesla #evcharging #fyp ♬ Blue Moon – Muspace Lofi
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Tesla FSD (Supervised) is about to go on “widespread” release
