Investor's Corner
‘Tesla Killer’ myth debunked by TSLA skeptic: Model 3 faces ‘no credible competition’ until 2020
Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) seems to be in the process of recovering from Tuesday’s dive over reports of the US Department of Justice’s probe into Elon Musk’s “funding secured” tweet last month, but the company’s most ambitious vehicle — the Model 3 — continues to impress even longtime skeptics. In a recent note, Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein, who is known to be critical of Tesla in the past, stated that there is simply “no credible competition” for the Model 3 until 2020.
According to Sacconaghi, Bernstein has looked into the upcoming electric cars from several automakers set to arrive in the US within the coming years. In the case of the Model 3, the analyst pointed out that the vehicle would likely be unrivaled until 2020, when Volvo releases its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan.
“But let’s make this clear: there is no actual flood of competition coming. We tallied up every announced electric vehicle arriving in the U.S. between now and 2022, and the results were stark. The Model 3, which will account for 70% of Tesla’s revenues within two years, faces no credible competition whatsoever until 2020, or until Volvo AB launches its all-electric Polestar 2 sedan,” the Bernstein analyst noted.
Sacconaghi’s note also stated that the Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X would likely be unrivaled until 2020 as well, as the vehicles will only be facing two competitors, the Audi e-tron Quattro and the Jaguar- I-PACE. Ultimately, the analyst noted that instead of hampering Tesla, the release of electric cars from incumbent automakers would most probably “validate and expand the existing market for electric cars.” Sacconaghi further stated that even the Chevy Bolt, which was once perceived as a “Tesla Killer,” does not really rival the Model 3.
“While matching the range and price point of the Model 3, the Bolt arguably remains a lower-end car, without the luxury nameplate, the styling, the performance, or even the electronics offered by Tesla. A side-by-side comparison in real life makes the contrast particularly stark – for one thing, the Bolt is a whole 20 inches shorter than the Model 3. GM has been relatively mum on its specific electric vehicle plans going forward, but we do not expect it to sell clear competitors to the Model 3 anytime within the next 3 years,” the analyst noted.
Toni Sacconaghi is hardly a Tesla enthusiast. Back in July, the analyst released a note expressing his reservations about the Model 3’s long-term profitability. Sacconaghi’s questions during Tesla’s Q1 2018 earnings call incited Elon Musk’s now-infamous outburst as well, with the CEO dubbing his inquiry as “boring” and “boneheaded.”
As other carmakers reveal their own entries into the all-electric market, Tesla’s experience in creating compelling EVs is starting to become evident. Thus, Sacconaghi is not alone in his observations. After Audi’s reveal of the e-tron, longtime Tesla skeptic Patrick Hummel from UBS Group AG — the same group which alleged that the $35,000 base Model 3 would not be profitable — admitted that the performance and specs of rival vehicles from veteran carmakers like Mercedes-Benz and Audi shows that Tesla would likely maintain its lead in the premium electric car market for a bit longer.
Since its steep dive on Tuesday, Tesla stock is starting a seemingly steady trek back up. As of writing, Tesla stock is trading up 1.63% at $289.61 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) just got a price target boost from its biggest bear, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, who raised his expected trading level to one that is 95 percent lower than its current trading level.
Johnson pushed his Tesla price target from $19.05 to $25.28 on Wednesday, while maintaining the ‘Sell’ rating that has been present on the stock for a long time. GLJ has largely been recognized as the biggest skeptic of Elon Musk’s company, being particularly critical of the automotive side of things.
Tesla has routinely been called out by Johnson for negative delivery growth, what he calls “weakening demand,” and price cuts that have occurred in past years, all pointing to them as desperate measures to sell its cars.
Johnson has also said that Tesla is extremely overvalued and is too reliant on regulatory credits for profitability. Other analysts on the bullish side recognize Tesla as a company that is bigger than just its automotive side.
Many believe it is a leader in autonomous driving, like Dan Ives of Wedbush, who believes Tesla will have a widely successful 2026, especially if it can come through on its targets and schedules for Robotaxi and Cybercab.
Justifying the price target this week, Johnson said that the revised valuation is based on “reality rather than narrative.” Tesla has been noted by other analysts and financial experts as a stock that trades on narrative, something Johnson obviously disagrees with.
Dan Nathan, a notorious skeptic of the stock, turned bullish late last year, recognizing the company’s shares trade on “technicals and sentiment.” He said, “From a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”
Tesla bear turns bullish for two reasons as stock continues boost
Johnson has remained very consistent with this sentiment regarding Tesla and his beliefs regarding its true valuation, and has never shied away from putting his true thoughts out there.
Tesla shares closed at $431.40 today, about 95 percent above where Johnson’s new price target lies.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock received a price target update from Pierre Ferragu of Wall Street firm New Street Research, citing the company’s growing lead in self-driving and autonomy.
On Tuesday, Ferragu bumped his price target from $520 to $600, stating that the consensus from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was that Tesla’s lead in autonomy has been sustained, is growing, and sits at a multiple-year lead over its competitors.
CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst
“The signal from Vegas is loud and clear,” the analyst writes. “The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy…just with a 12-year lag.”
The note shows that the company’s prowess in vehicle autonomy is being solidified by lagging competitors that claim to have the best method. The only problem is that Tesla’s Vision-based approach, which it adopted back in 2022 with the Model 3 and Model Y initially, has been proven to be more effective than competitors’ approach, which utilizes other technology, such as LiDAR and sensors.
Currently, Tesla shares are sitting at around $433, as the company’s stock price closed at $432.96 on Tuesday afternoon.
Ferragu’s consensus on Tesla shares echoes that of other Wall Street analysts who are bullish on the company’s stock and position within the AI, autonomy, and robotics sector.
Dan Ives of Wedbush wrote in a note in mid-December that he anticipates Tesla having a massive 2026, and could reach a $3 trillion valuation this year, especially with the “AI chapter” taking hold of the narrative at the company.
Ives also said that the big step in the right direction for Tesla will be initiating production of the Cybercab, as well as expanding on the Robotaxi program through the next 12 months:
“…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
Tesla has transitioned from an automaker to a full-fledged AI company, and its Robotaxi and Cybercab programs, fueled by the Full Self-Driving suite, are leading the charge moving forward. In 2026, there are major goals the company has outlined. The first is removing Safety Drivers from vehicles in Austin, Texas, one of the areas where it operates a ride-hailing service within the U.S.
Ultimately, Tesla will aim to launch a Level 5 autonomy suite to the public in the coming years.
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