Investor's Corner
Tesla Mid-Range Model 3 production ramp kicks off with 4.5k RWD VIN registrations
As Tesla heads towards its earlier-than-expected Q3 2018 earnings call, the company’s Model 3 production ramp continues to show signs that it is going smoothly. Just yesterday, Tesla registered another large batch of 4,500 new Model 3 VINs, all of which appear to be RWD versions of the electric sedan. Tesla had also registered 38,211 Model 3 since the beginning of October, setting up the company for what could very well be a record month in terms of new Model 3 VIN registrations.
#Tesla registered 4,500 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 156129. https://t.co/cw9lfjMZDw
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) October 22, 2018
While Tesla’s VIN registrations do not specifically list the cars’ Long Range or Mid Range battery, the company’s push for the MR version and the absence of the LR variant in the Model 3 configurator do suggest that the latest VIN filings correspond to the Mid Range Model 3 RWD. With this new batch, Twitter’s Model 3 VIN tracking group @Model3VINs notes that Tesla had registered a total of 156,129 Model 3 VINs to date.
Tesla’s new Model 3 VIN filings come at a time when the company is pushing the electric car’s newest variant — the Mid Range Model 3 RWD — to reservation holders. Musk seems to have teased the vehicle on the social media platform a day before it was officially announced, stating that a “lemur” was coming. Neither Tesla nor Elon Musk has announced the reasons behind the lemur reference, though the little primate might be a clever play on the LEMR variation of the electric car (Limited Edition Mid Range, perhaps?).
Considering that the Mid Range RWD variant is a vehicle that puts Tesla one step closer to the $35,000 Standard trim Model 3, the new electric car variant could very well see a lot of demand. The Mid Range Model 3 RWD currently has an estimated delivery time of 6-10 weeks, after all, which would allow buyers to take delivery of the vehicle at a time when Tesla’s full $7,500 Federal Tax Credit is still in full effect. Taking the $7,500 tax credit and estimated gas savings into account, Tesla’s Mid Range Model 3 RWD has an estimated cost of ownership in the $33,200 range.
Tesla’s decision to offer a Mid Range variant to the Model 3 could be seen as a strategic move by the electric car maker. The vehicle, after all, takes advantage of its remaining $7,500 federal tax credit to lower the vehicle’s total cost of ownership. Elon Musk’s later tweets also revealed that the introduction of the new electric car variant would likely not weigh down the Model 3 production ramp either, as the Mid Range Model 3 RWD uses the same battery pack as the Long Range RWD version, albeit with fewer battery cells.
It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 18, 2018
The Mid Range Model 3 RWD represents a $4,000 price savings from the Long Range RWD variant that starts at $49,000 before incentives. There are some performance compromises with the Mid Range Model 3 RWD, though, in the form of a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds, a top speed of 125 mph, and a driving range of 260 miles per charge. In comparison, the Long Range Model 3 RWD has a 5.1-second 0-60 time, a top speed of 140 mph, and a range of 310 miles per charge.
The introduction of the Mid Range Model 3 RWD could ultimately be a way for Tesla to boost its production and delivery numbers further this Q4. The company set the bar high in Q3 with its record deliveries and production figures, after all, and it would take even more impressive numbers for the company to become profitable in the fourth quarter. With this in mind, the Mid Range Model 3 RWD could very well be the catalyst for Tesla’s profitability this Q4, due to its potential to attract budget-conscious reservation holders waiting for low-cost versions of the vehicle.
Tesla has announced that it would be holding its Q3 earnings call on Wednesday, October 24, 2018. The live Q&A session is set for 3:30 p.m. Pacific Time (6:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to accommodate requests from several analysts.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
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