Investor's Corner
Tesla to open pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China on May 31
Tesla has revealed that it will be opening pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China starting this Friday, May 31, 2019. The announcement was posted on the electric car maker’s official Weibo account, and it included a teaser image of a Tesla Model 3 facing the nearly complete factory shell of Gigafactory 3.
Tesla’s Weibo pre-order announcement included a short history of the company’s vehicles over the years, from the original Tesla Roadster to the Tesla Model 3. Following is a rough translation of Tesla’s Weibo post for its Chinese customers on Wednesday.
“In 2008, Tesla’s first electric car, the Roadster, was officially released. Its record-breaking acceleration, performance, cruising range, and driving performance proved to the world that electric vehicles could be superior to traditional internal combustion engines.
“In 2012, Tesla launched the Model S, a pure electric luxury sedan, with its 17” touchscreen becoming an industry-leading design. In addition, the elegant shape and performance of the Model S completely overturned the expectations of the 21st-century car.
“In 2015, Model X landed on the market with an uncompromising attitude, perfecting a high-performance, safe, and intelligent SUV, and it was awarded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) with a 5-Star Safety Rating.
“In 2017, the more intimate Model 3 impressed countless consumers with its future-oriented design and excellent driving, and it became the US luxury car champion in 2018. May 31, 2019 – Made in China Model 3 will open soon. Expecting to meet you.”
Tesla has hinted at an announcement for the locally-made Model 3 over the past few days. On Monday, Tesla enthusiasts in China were saturated by a cryptic teaser that included the words 储势,待发 (roughly translates to “building up momentum, getting ready to launch”) and a date (May 31, 2019). The company did not provide any other details about its teaser, though it provided a follow-up the next day.
On Tuesday, Tesla released another teaser in the form of a fun Model 3 guessing game. The rules of the game were simple. From a set of hint numbers, Tesla fans were asked to guess and decode the list price of locally-produced Model 3. A report from Bloomberg which cited a source familiar with the matter suggested that Tesla will likely price the China-made Model 3 between 300,000 RMB ($43,400) and 350,000 yuan ($50,600) before subsidies.
Tesla’s decision to open pre-orders for China’s locally made Model 3 on May 31, 2019, is a bold move for the electric car maker. For one, it could result in some potential Model 3 buyers holding out for the arrival of the more affordable versions that will be coming out of Gigafactory later this year. This also puts incredible pressure on the company to get Gigafactory 3 ready for production as early as possible.
Optimistic estimates for Gigafactory 3’s initial Model 3 production suggest that the first vehicles could be manufactured in the Shanghai-based plant as early as September, though a long list of pre-orders for the domestic Model 3 will likely push the company to go for an even more aggressive timetable. Nevertheless, such a strategy will keep the Model 3 and Tesla visible to Chinese consumers, which would most likely benefit the electric car maker.
Gigafactory 3 is expected to produce the affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y for the Chinese market. By doing so, Tesla would be able to compete in China’s fast-growing and lucrative electric car segment using vehicles that are more competitive in price against offerings from local electric car companies.
Tesla has scheduled its Earnings Call for Q4 and Full Year 2025 for next Wednesday, January 28, at 5:30 p.m. EST, and investors are already preparing to get some answers from executives regarding a wide variety of topics.
The company accepts several questions from retail investors through the platform Say, which then allows shareholders to vote on the best questions.
Tesla does not answer anything regarding future product releases, but they are willing to shed light on current timelines, progress of certain projects, and other plans.
There are five questions that range over a variety of topics, including SpaceX, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus, which are currently in the lead to be asked and potentially answered by Elon Musk and other Tesla executives:
- You once said: Loyalty deserves loyalty. Will long-term Tesla shareholders still be prioritized if SpaceX does an IPO?
- Our Take – With a lot of speculation regarding an incoming SpaceX IPO, Tesla investors, especially long-term ones, should be able to benefit from an early opportunity to purchase shares. This has been discussed endlessly over the past year, and we must be getting close to it.
- When is FSD going to be 100% unsupervised?
- Our Take – Musk said today that this is essentially a solved problem, and it could be available in the U.S. by the end of this year.
- What is the current bottleneck to increase Robotaxi deployment & personal use unsupervised FSD? The safety/performance of the most recent models or people to monitor robots, robotaxis, in-car, or remotely? Or something else?
- Our Take – The bottleneck seems to be based on data, which Musk said Tesla needs 10 billion miles of data to achieve unsupervised FSD. Once that happens, regulatory issues will be what hold things up from moving forward.
- Regarding Optimus, could you share the current number of units deployed in Tesla factories and actively performing production tasks? What specific roles or operations are they handling, and how has their integration impacted factory efficiency or output?
- Our Take – Optimus is going to have a larger role in factories moving forward, and later this year, they will have larger responsibilities.
- Can you please tie purchased FSD to our owner accounts vs. locked to the car? This will help us enjoy it in any Tesla we drive/buy and reward us for hanging in so long, some of us since 2017.
- Our Take – This is a good one and should get us some additional information on the FSD transfer plans and Subscription-only model that Tesla will adopt soon.
Tesla will have its Earnings Call on Wednesday, January 28.
Elon Musk
Tesla locks in Elon Musk’s top problem solver as it enters its most ambitious era
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla has granted Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu more than 520,000 stock options, tying a significant portion of his compensation to the company’s long-term performance.
The generous equity award was disclosed by the electric vehicle maker in a recent regulatory filing.
Tesla secures top talent
According to a Form 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom Zhu received 520,021 stock options with an exercise price of $435.80 per share. Since the award will not fully vest until March 5, 2031, Zhu must remain at Tesla for more than five years to realize the award’s full benefit.
Considering that Tesla shares are currently trading at around the $445 to $450 per share level, Zhu will really only see gains in his equity award if Tesla’s stock price sees a notable rise over the years, as noted in a Sina Finance report.
Still, even at today’s prices, Zhu’s stock award is already worth over $230 million. If Tesla reaches the market cap targets set forth in Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award, Zhu would become a billionaire from this equity award alone.
Tesla’s problem solver
Zhu joined Tesla in April 2014 and initially led the company’s Supercharger rollout in China. Later that year, he assumed the leadership of Tesla’s China business, where he played a central role in Tesla’s localization efforts, including expanding retail and service networks, and later, overseeing the development of Gigafactory Shanghai.
Zhu’s efforts helped transform China into one of Tesla’s most important markets and production hubs. In 2023, Tesla promoted Zhu to Senior Vice President of Automotive, placing him among the company’s core global executives and expanding his influence beyond China. He has since garnered a reputation as the company’s problem solver, being tapped by Elon Musk to help ramp Giga Texas’s vehicle production.
With this in mind, Tesla’s recent filing seems to suggest that the company is locking in its top talent as it enters its newest, most ambitious era to date. As could be seen in the targets of Elon Musk’s 2025 pay package, Tesla is now aiming to be the world’s largest company by market cap, and it is aiming to achieve production levels that are unheard of. Zhu’s talents would definitely be of use in this stage of the company’s growth.
Tesla analyst Andrew Percoco of Morgan Stanley teased the company’s dominance in its self-driving initiative, stating that its lead over competitors is “not even close.”
Percoco recently overtook coverage of Tesla stock from Adam Jonas, who had covered the company at Morgan Stanley for years. Percoco is handling Tesla now that Jonas is covering embodied AI stocks and no longer automotive.
His first move after grabbing coverage was to adjust the price target from $410 to $425, as well as the rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Equal Weight.’
Percoco’s new note regarding Tesla highlights the company’s extensive lead in self-driving and autonomy projects, something that it has plenty of competition in, but has established its prowess over the past few years.
He writes:
“It’s not even close. Tesla continues to lead in autonomous driving, even as Nvidia rolls out new technology aimed at helping other automakers build driverless systems.”
Percoco’s main point regarding Tesla’s advantage is the company’s ability to collect large amounts of training data through its massive fleet, as millions of cars are driving throughout the world and gathering millions of miles of vehicle behavior on the road.
This is the main point that Percoco makes regarding Tesla’s lead in the entire autonomy sector: data is King, and Tesla has the most of it.
One big story that has hit the news over the past week is that of NVIDIA and its own self-driving suite, called Alpamayo. NVIDIA launched this open-source AI program last week, but it differs from Tesla’s in a significant fashion, especially from a hardware perspective, as it plans to use a combination of LiDAR, Radar, and Vision (Cameras) to operate.
Percoco said that NVIDIA’s announcement does not impact Morgan Stanley’s long-term opinions on Tesla and its strength or prowess in self-driving.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang commends Tesla’s Elon Musk for early belief
And, for what it’s worth, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang even said some remarkable things about Tesla following the launch of Alpamayo:
“I think the Tesla stack is the most advanced autonomous vehicle stack in the world. I’m fairly certain they were already using end-to-end AI. Whether their AI did reasoning or not is somewhat secondary to that first part.”
Percoco reiterated both the $425 price target and the ‘Equal Weight’ rating on Tesla shares.
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