Investor's Corner
Tesla to open pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China on May 31
Tesla has revealed that it will be opening pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China starting this Friday, May 31, 2019. The announcement was posted on the electric car maker’s official Weibo account, and it included a teaser image of a Tesla Model 3 facing the nearly complete factory shell of Gigafactory 3.
Tesla’s Weibo pre-order announcement included a short history of the company’s vehicles over the years, from the original Tesla Roadster to the Tesla Model 3. Following is a rough translation of Tesla’s Weibo post for its Chinese customers on Wednesday.
“In 2008, Tesla’s first electric car, the Roadster, was officially released. Its record-breaking acceleration, performance, cruising range, and driving performance proved to the world that electric vehicles could be superior to traditional internal combustion engines.
“In 2012, Tesla launched the Model S, a pure electric luxury sedan, with its 17” touchscreen becoming an industry-leading design. In addition, the elegant shape and performance of the Model S completely overturned the expectations of the 21st-century car.
“In 2015, Model X landed on the market with an uncompromising attitude, perfecting a high-performance, safe, and intelligent SUV, and it was awarded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) with a 5-Star Safety Rating.
-->“In 2017, the more intimate Model 3 impressed countless consumers with its future-oriented design and excellent driving, and it became the US luxury car champion in 2018. May 31, 2019 – Made in China Model 3 will open soon. Expecting to meet you.”
Tesla has hinted at an announcement for the locally-made Model 3 over the past few days. On Monday, Tesla enthusiasts in China were saturated by a cryptic teaser that included the words 储势,待发 (roughly translates to “building up momentum, getting ready to launch”) and a date (May 31, 2019). The company did not provide any other details about its teaser, though it provided a follow-up the next day.
On Tuesday, Tesla released another teaser in the form of a fun Model 3 guessing game. The rules of the game were simple. From a set of hint numbers, Tesla fans were asked to guess and decode the list price of locally-produced Model 3. A report from Bloomberg which cited a source familiar with the matter suggested that Tesla will likely price the China-made Model 3 between 300,000 RMB ($43,400) and 350,000 yuan ($50,600) before subsidies.
Tesla’s decision to open pre-orders for China’s locally made Model 3 on May 31, 2019, is a bold move for the electric car maker. For one, it could result in some potential Model 3 buyers holding out for the arrival of the more affordable versions that will be coming out of Gigafactory later this year. This also puts incredible pressure on the company to get Gigafactory 3 ready for production as early as possible.
Optimistic estimates for Gigafactory 3’s initial Model 3 production suggest that the first vehicles could be manufactured in the Shanghai-based plant as early as September, though a long list of pre-orders for the domestic Model 3 will likely push the company to go for an even more aggressive timetable. Nevertheless, such a strategy will keep the Model 3 and Tesla visible to Chinese consumers, which would most likely benefit the electric car maker.
-->Gigafactory 3 is expected to produce the affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y for the Chinese market. By doing so, Tesla would be able to compete in China’s fast-growing and lucrative electric car segment using vehicles that are more competitive in price against offerings from local electric car companies.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
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