Investor's Corner
Tesla Model 3 production ramp pushes forward with 17.8k VIN filings in 7 days
Over the past seven days, Tesla has registered a total of 17,863 new Model 3 VINs. The past weekend alone saw filings for more than 13,000 vehicles, in what appears to be a strong sign that the Model 3 production ramp is growing even stronger.
Tesla’s latest batches of VIN registrations were tracked by Twitter group @Model3VINs, which noted that the carmaker’s recent filings have seen an increase in the number of Dual Motor vehicles being registered. On Sunday, for example, Tesla filed 6,425 new Model 3 VINs, and all of them are estimated to be Dual Motor. When Tesla registered more than 4,609 Model 3 VINs earlier this month, 85% of the vehicles were estimated to be Dual Motor. With the latest batches added, Tesla has now registered a total of 135,771 Model 3 VINs since the electric car started production in July 2017.
#Tesla registered 6,425 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 135771. https://t.co/wxgcPvdYKK
— Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) October 7, 2018
The influx of Dual Motor VINs being filed by Tesla bodes well for the vehicle’s production ramp. Considering that Tesla has so far been delivering the Model 3 exclusively to the United States and Canada; the company’s apparent shift towards registering more Dual Motor VINs invokes the idea that the company is starting to go through the reservations for the Long Range RWD Model 3 in the US and Canada. If this inference proves accurate, it would not be too surprising if Tesla starts preparing the Model 3 for release in foreign territories.
-->Tesla does seem to be showing indications that it is preparing to bring the Model 3 to other countries. Just recently, reports from Tesla owners in Tilburg, Netherlands revealed that the electric car maker had acquired a third, expansive facility in the area. Tesla is yet to disclose the purpose of the new Tilburg site, but speculations are high that the facility could serve as a location where parts for vehicles would be stored and distributed. Such a facility would be invaluable when the Model 3 is rolled out to the region.
The Model 3 has also been teased in several European festivals. Among these is the 2018 Goodwood Festival of Speed last July, as well as the 2018 Paris Motor Show this month. In both festivals, the Model 3 attracted quite a lot of attention, particularly in the 2018 Paris Motor Show, where Tesla’s booth attracted long lines of people waiting to interact with the Model 3.
Happy to be displaying our Tesla family at the #MondialAuto in #Paris pic.twitter.com/aNyF9WCyMT
— Jorge Milburn (@jorgemilburn) October 6, 2018
Tesla’s ongoing ramp for Model 3 production comes as the company is in the process of invading the United States’ passenger car market. The Model 3’s production rates are only around half of Tesla’s final 10,000 vehicle-per-week target, but even rival carmakers are already starting to feel the presence of the electric sedan.
-->In August, auto sales tracking website GoodCarBadCar listed the Model 3 as America’s 5th best-selling passenger car. In September, the Model 3 moved up GCBC‘s list, beating out the ubiquitous Toyota Corolla Family and becoming the US’ 4th best-selling passenger car. The Model 3 also ranked as the 13th overall best-selling vehicle in the country, in a list that includes mainstream trucks and SUVs like the Ford F-150 and the Toyota Rav4.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
-->Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Tesla FSD approved for testing in Nacka, Sweden, though municipality note reveals aggravating detail
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