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Tesla Model 3: what battery cost/kWh is needed for vehicle profitability?

Photo credit: gobi.man via Instagram

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As the Tesla Model 3 nears production and the first deliveries in July, the big question investors are asking is “Will Model 3 sink the company or take it to new heights?” The latest episode of Teslanomics reverse engineers new data around vehicle production costs and per kilowatt-hour battery costs, in an attempt to understand if and when Model 3 will be profitable.

Tesla shared in the 2017 Q1 investor call that it had improved margins on its vehicles to 27%. While the company disrupts not only the automotive industry but the energy storage and energy production industries, analysts have been scattershot in their estimations of Tesla’s current and future valuation.

Teslanomics took cost/kWh data from an anonymous source and combined it with assumptions for Model 3 battery size, to find the approximate cost/kWh required before Model 3 can be profitable. First, host Ben Sullins took the industry average that the Total Produced Cost of the vehicle should be around 40% of the sale price of the car. Electric cars are a bit different as batteries typically make up 50% of the total production cost of the vehicle.

Ben then created a model that calculates the % of the overall vehicle price that the battery represents. Based on discussions taking place across forums, it’s widely speculated that Model 3 will be offered with two different battery pack sizes – a 55 kWh and 70 kWh battery pack at a vehicle price of $35,000 and $42,000, respectively. Based on those assumptions, Ben was able to reduce the per kilowatt-hour battery cost until the total produced cost of the vehicle reached approximately 50%.

While this analysis is not water tight, nor was it intended to be, it does add a valuable data point to show that Model 3 can be profitable, especially once Tesla’s Gigafactory is in full production and battery costs reach $130 per kWh and below. Tesla is expected to announce details for Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 by the end of this year.

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I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk reveals new details about Robotaxi rollout

The first Tesla Robotaxi unit was spotted in Austin earlier today, and CEO Elon Musk is revealing some cool new details.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed new details about the company’s relatively imminent rollout of the Robotaxi platform as the suspected launch date of June 12 continues to near.

Earlier today, the first video showing the first driverless Tesla Robotaxi in Austin was shared on X, just a day after the City officially listed the company as an autonomous vehicle operator on its website. Tesla is listed as a company in the “Testing” phase.

The initial details of the Robotaxi are being revealed by Musk, who is carefully releasing small tidbits that seem to show the capabilities of the entire Tesla fleet, and not necessarily just the vehicles that will be involved in the initial rollout in Austin.

First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

His first tidbit is one that many Tesla owners and fans will already know: many Teslas are capable of this driveless performance, but Full Self-Driving is not yet refined to the point where the software is quite ready to handle it. Current versions are robust, but not prepared for driverless navigation. The hardware, however, will enable Teslas to be Robotaxis, even if they’re already purchased by owners:

This is one of the biggest advantages Tesla has over other vehicle makers. Simply put, the Over-the-Air software updates that will roll out to FSD users will eventually make their cars into Robotaxis as well.

However, Musk shed some details on the version of FSD that is being run in these new Robotaxis that were spotted. Musk said that the version these Robotaxis are running is a new version, but will soon “merge to main branch.”

There is also an even newer version that has four times the parameters as this newer version that the test-stage Robotaxis are using, but Musk admits that this needs significant refinement before it is released to the public.

As of now, Tesla is simply teasing the actual launch date of the Robotaxi program, but Bloomberg reported earlier this month that it will occur on June 12.

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First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.

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Credit: @TerrapinTerpene/X

A recent video posted on X has provided a first look at Tesla’s driverless robotaxi, which is expected to be deployed in Austin, Texas, this month. The vehicle was a new Tesla Model Y, which was followed by what appeared to be a manned chase car.

The short clip suggests that Tesla may be ramping up its preparations for its robotaxi rollout in Austin.

The First Robotaxi Sighting

It was evident from the short clip that the Tesla robotaxi was operating completely driverless. In the video, which was posted on X by @TerrapinTerpene, the driverless Tesla could be seen confidently making a turn. The vehicle looked and behaved like any other car on the road, save for the fact that there was no one in the driver’s seat.

Interestingly enough, the short video also provided a teaser on where Tesla will place its “robotaxi” logo on its self-driving cars. Based on the video, the robotaxis’ logo will be tastefully placed on the front doors, making the vehicles look sleek and clean.

Initial Rollout Imminent

Recent reports have suggested that Tesla is already starting the testing phase of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. Expectations are also high that Tesla’s initial fleet of self-driving vehicles will be utilizing a lot of teleoperation to ensure that they operate as safely as possible.

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Updates to Austin’s official website recently have hinted at Tesla’s robotaxi launch. Just this Monday, Tesla was listed as an autonomous vehicle (AV) operator on Austin’s official Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). Other AV operators listed on the site are Waymo and Zoox, among others.

Elon Musk, for his part, has noted that by the end of June, the public in Austin should be ready to take rides in Tesla robotaxis without an invitation. He also noted in late May that Tesla has been busy testing driverless cars on Austin’s city streets without any incidents.

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Tesla Model Y proudly takes its place as China’s best-selling SUV in May

The Model Y edged out competitors like the BYD Song Plus.

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Credit: Tesla China

The Tesla Model Y claimed its position as China’s best-selling SUV in May, with 24,770 units registered, according to insurance data from China EV DataTracker

The Model Y edged out competitors like the BYD Song Plus, which recorded 24,240 registrations, as well as Geely’s gasoline-powered Xingyue L, which took third place with 21,014 units registered, as noted in Car News China report.

Return To The Top

The Model Y’s return to the top of China’s SUV market follows a second-place finish in April, when it trailed the BYD Song Plus by just 684 units. Tesla China had 19,984 new Model Y registrations in April, while BYD had 20,668 registrations for the Song Plus. 

https://twitter.com/daltybrewer/status/1932171519817621536

For the first five months of 2025, Tesla sold 126,643 Model Ys in China, outpacing the Song Plus at 110,551 units and BYD’s Song Pro at 80,245 units. This is quite impressive as the new Tesla Model Y is still a premium vehicle that is significantly more expensive than a good number of its competitors.

Year-Over-Year Challenges

Despite its SUV crown, Tesla’s year-over-year performance in China is still seeing headwinds. May sales totaled 38,588 units, a 30% year-over-year decline. From January to May, Tesla delivered 201,926 vehicles in China, a 7.8% drop year-over-year. These drops, however, are notably affected by the company’s changeover to the new Model Y in the first quarter.

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https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1932171187700084910

Exports from Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory also fell, with 90,949 vehicles being shipped from January to May 2025. This represents a decline of 33.4% year-over-year, though May exports rose 33% to 23,074 units.

China’s electric vehicle market, meanwhile, showed robust growth. Total NEV sales, which includes battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), reached 1,021,000 units in May, up 28% year-over-year. BEV sales alone hit 607,000 units, a 22.4% increase.

Considering the fact that China’s BEV market is extremely competitive, the Tesla Model Y’s rise to the top of the country’s SUV rankings is extremely impressive.

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