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Tesla Model 3: what battery cost/kWh is needed for vehicle profitability?

Photo credit: gobi.man via Instagram

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As the Tesla Model 3 nears production and the first deliveries in July, the big question investors are asking is “Will Model 3 sink the company or take it to new heights?” The latest episode of Teslanomics reverse engineers new data around vehicle production costs and per kilowatt-hour battery costs, in an attempt to understand if and when Model 3 will be profitable.

Tesla shared in the 2017 Q1 investor call that it had improved margins on its vehicles to 27%. While the company disrupts not only the automotive industry but the energy storage and energy production industries, analysts have been scattershot in their estimations of Tesla’s current and future valuation.

Teslanomics took cost/kWh data from an anonymous source and combined it with assumptions for Model 3 battery size, to find the approximate cost/kWh required before Model 3 can be profitable. First, host Ben Sullins took the industry average that the Total Produced Cost of the vehicle should be around 40% of the sale price of the car. Electric cars are a bit different as batteries typically make up 50% of the total production cost of the vehicle.

Ben then created a model that calculates the % of the overall vehicle price that the battery represents. Based on discussions taking place across forums, it’s widely speculated that Model 3 will be offered with two different battery pack sizes – a 55 kWh and 70 kWh battery pack at a vehicle price of $35,000 and $42,000, respectively. Based on those assumptions, Ben was able to reduce the per kilowatt-hour battery cost until the total produced cost of the vehicle reached approximately 50%.

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While this analysis is not water tight, nor was it intended to be, it does add a valuable data point to show that Model 3 can be profitable, especially once Tesla’s Gigafactory is in full production and battery costs reach $130 per kWh and below. Tesla is expected to announce details for Gigafactory 3, 4 and 5 by the end of this year.

I'm passionate about clean technology, sustainability and life. I've worked in manufacturing, IT, project management and environmental...and enjoy unpacking complex topics in layman's terms. TSLA investor. Find more of my words on my website or follow me on Twitter for all the latest. Tesla Referral link: http://ts.la/kyle623

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Tesla expands Robotaxi to Florida, marking its third state for autonomy

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has expanded its Robotaxi program to Miami, Florida, marking the third state the autonomous ride-hailing platform has made its way to since launching last Summer.

Tesla announced today that the Robotaxi suite would now officially launch rides in a geofence in Miami:

The first geofence in Miami covers approximately 10 to 14 square miles. The area appears to be focused on western and central Miami, including Miami International Airport (MIA). It also includes popular routes like SR 826 (Palmetto Expressway), US 41 (Tamiami Trail), and connectors such as SR 968, 953, 959, and 972.

This is Tesla’s initial Miami launch zone, smaller and more targeted than some competitors’ areas (for example, Waymo’s initial rollout was broader in eastern neighborhoods). It prioritizes high-traffic, airport-linked routes before wider expansion.

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The expansion is a huge signal for Tesla that it is now operating in Florida, a heavy-traffic state with many tourist areas, including Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, and the Boynton area, all of which are coastal and will attract perhaps millions of tourists in any given year.

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The Tesla Robotaxi network launched last year on June 22, in Austin, Texas, beginning limited commercial operations in that city. It expanded shortly thereafter into the San Francisco Bay Area of California in late July 2025, marking entry into a second state with service covering key areas such as San Francisco, San Jose, and Berkeley.

Full commercial service was achieved in Austin by November 18, 2025, strengthening its presence within Texas before further growth.

In 2026, the network continued expanding across Texas with the addition of Dallas and Houston on April 18, significantly broadening its footprint in the state. This new launch into Miami marks Tesla entering a new state and bringing active locations to include Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio in Texas, and the Bay Area in California.

These sequential expansions have steadily increased the network’s reach across major metropolitan areas in Texas, California, and Florida, focusing on scaling operations city by city and state by state since the initial Austin debut.

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Elon Musk outlines Tesla Optimus production expectations

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Credit: Grok Imagine

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has tempered expectations for the company’s humanoid robot Optimus, emphasizing that initial production will ramp up slowly despite recent progress on the manufacturing line. In a July 1 reply on X, Musk responded to optimistic community speculation by stating, “No, Optimus production will be extremely slow at first, as everything is new. This is not like making a car.”

The comment came in response to a post theorizing that Tesla had accelerated Optimus V3 development and might soon unveil an impressive demonstration with multiple units already in meaningful production. Musk’s clarification highlights the fundamental differences between scaling a novel humanoid robot and Tesla’s established automotive operations, which benefit from over a century of refined supply chains, tooling, and processes.

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Recent updates show tangible advancement. Musk shared a photo of himself walking the Optimus production line at Fremont, where Tesla is converting former Model S/X manufacturing space. According to Q1 2026 earnings commentary, limited production is slated to begin in late July or August 2026 on this converted line.

Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress

Musk previously noted that Optimus features roughly 10,000 unique parts, making early output rates “literally impossible to predict” and describing them as “quite slow.” A larger dedicated factory at Giga Texas is under construction, targeting higher-volume production around summer 2027 with long-term annual capacity potentially reaching millions of units.

Some experts point out that pioneering humanoid robotics demands inventing new automation techniques, actuator supply chains, and quality-control standards in real time. Unlike vehicles, where components and assembly methods are mature, every element of Optimus—from dexterous hands to AI-integrated movement—requires fresh engineering solutions. Early units are expected to handle simple factory tasks before expanding to more complex roles.

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This cautious approach aligns with Tesla’s history of under-promising and over-delivering on complex technologies. While enthusiasts hoped for rapid deployment, Musk’s message underscores a deliberate strategy: prioritize reliability and iterative improvement over rushed volume.

Analysts suggest the S-curve ramp typical of new manufacturing will eventually accelerate once foundational issues are resolved, positioning Optimus as a potential trillion-dollar product line.

Musk has long envisioned Optimus transforming labor markets, assisting in homes, factories, and hazardous environments. By setting realistic timelines, Tesla aims to build sustainable momentum rather than risk disappointment. As the Fremont line comes online this summer, investors and fans will watch closely for the first production metrics and capability demonstrations.

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Tesla brings Model Y L ‘Launch Series’ to the U.S. at $61,990

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Tesla has officially launched the Model Y L in the United States and Puerto Rico for $61,990. It is the longer-wheelbase version of the Model Y, and has been available in China since last year.

Tesla brings the Model Y L to the U.S. just months after it phased out the only pure SUV in its lineup, the Model X. It is slightly longer than the Model Y configurations that are already available in the U.S., and features a three-row, six-seat setup with Captain’s Chairs being among the many features that make this a truly fantastic offering.

The Model Y L is priced competitively at $61,990, and features 325 miles of range and a 0-60 MPH in just 4.4 seconds.

Tesla also added a handful of new features that are not available in even the Premium Model Y. Here’s a full list of its features:

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  • Heated/Ventilated Front Seats with Powered Thigh Cushion
  • Heated/Ventilated Captain’s Seats in Second Row with Powered Armrests & One-Touch Fold
  • Heated Third-Row Seats with Power Recline, One-Touch Fold & Child Seat Anchors
  • Improved Airflow, Increased Efficiency, More Range
  • 89 cubic feet of trunk space
  • Upgraded Acoustic Glass and Suspension to Minimize Road Noise
  • Adaptive Damping for a Smooth, Stable Ride
  • Staggered Tires for Enhanced Grip
  • Larger Tailgate for Better Rear Visibility and Bigger Windows Overall
  • 16″ First Row and 8″ Second Row Touchscreens
  • 19-Speaker Immersive Tesla Audio
  • 50W Wireless Charging Pads with Active Cooling and Charging Ports for All Other Seats
  • FSD Supervised and Integrated Grok AI

Tesla is also delivering these first units as a “Launch Series,” which comes with additional features, such as:

  • Door Trim Puddle Lights
  • Suede Dashboard Wing
  • Exterior and Interior Badging
  • Floor Mats
  • Sill Plates

The launch of the Model Y L in the U.S. marks a huge offering from Tesla to U.S. consumers. People have been calling for Tesla to bring a larger car to the U.S., and it needed it more than ever now that the Model X is gone.

It is a huge accomplishment for Tesla to get the Model Y L to the U.S., and after reporting strong deliveries today, it will be interesting to see how this car impacts future quarterly delivery reports.

Deliveries for the Model Y L “Launch Series” are slated for September or October of this year.

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