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The Model Y and Gigafactory 3 heralds a faster, more profitable Tesla
Tesla’s second-quarter report and its succeeding earnings call provided updates on what could very well be two of the electric car maker’s most pertinent projects to date: the Model Y ramp and Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China. Based on Tesla’s recent reports, it appears that both initiatives are moving along at an impressive pace, perhaps even faster than initially expected.
Model Y
When Elon Musk unveiled the Model Y last March, he provided a rough timeline for the upcoming vehicle. During his presentation, Musk mentioned that the all-electric midsize SUV would start deliveries starting Fall 2020 for the Long Range, Dual Motor AWD, and Performance versions, and Spring 2021 for the Standard variant. This was quite conservative, considering that Musk has a reputation for setting extremely aggressive targets for the production of the company’s vehicles.
Since then, several reports have emerged which hinted at Model Y production being far less volatile and challenging than the Model 3’s manufacturing ramp, a task so difficult that Elon Musk candidly called the period as “production hell.” In the Q2 Update Letter, Tesla confirmed that preparations for Model Y production have begun in the Fremont factory. The company also mentioned that due to the overlap in the components of the Model Y and the Model 3, the company was able to “leverage existing manufacturing designs in the development of the Model Y production facilities.” This bodes well for the midsize SUV, considering that Tesla had rolled out several improvements to Model 3 production process over the years.
Several other hints have also emerged suggesting that Tesla will be ramping the Model Y with its best technologies available. Recent patent applications, for example, have revealed that Tesla is working on a new wiring architecture that will reduce the wires used in the Model Y to just 100 m per vehicle, a significant reduction from the 1.5 km currently being used for the Model 3. Another patent has also emerged showing the design for a mammoth casting machine, which was hinted at by Elon Musk during an appearance at the Ride the Lightning podcast last month. “When we get the big casting machine, it’ll go from 70 parts to 1 with a significant reduction in capital expenditure on all the robots to put those parts together,” Musk said.
Considering all the innovation that is being implemented for the Model Y, it appears that Tesla is doing all it can to ensure that the vehicle does not encounter delays with its rollout. In fact, with Fremont already being prepared for the Model Y, and with giant casting machines being designed specifically for the vehicle, it almost seems like Tesla is trying to start the manufacturing of the SUV earlier than expected. There’s a long time between today and Fall 2020, and that seems to be more than enough to work out the manufacturing of a vehicle that is, in essence, a taller, more spacious Model 3.
Gigafactory 3
Over in China, another understated Tesla project is taking shape. When Elon Musk attended Gigafactory 3’s groundbreaking ceremony back in January, he stated that initial production of the Model 3 in the facility would begin by the end of the year. This target timeframe was met with disdain and skepticism from critics, many of whom have noted that no car factory has ever been built in the speed that Musk wanted. Six months later, Gigafactory 3’s general assembly building is practically complete, and its interior is already being tooled. Footage from drone flyovers showed the rise of the factory, and images from Tesla’s Q2 Update Letter showed that some sections of the facility already have robots installed in them.
Quite interestingly, it is not Elon Musk that is providing ambitious timeframes for Gigafactory 3 anymore. Instead, it is Chinese government officials. Local reports, for example, have suggested that China is looking to start initial Model 3 production as early as September, with the facility ramping to an output of 150,000 vehicles per year early next year. Compared to Wall Street’s estimates, which currently suggest that Gigafactory 3 will produce around 35,000 to 40,000 vehicles in 2020, China’s goals for the facility are far more optimistic.
Gigafactory 3 has pretty much exceeded expectations since work in the facility entered overdrive. Just like the Model Y ramp, the key to Gigafactory 3 lies in the company’s innovations with Model 3 production. Tesla mentioned this in its Q2 Update Letter. “Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process,” Tesla wrote.
There is no doubt that 2019 is turning out to be an incredibly challenging year for Tesla. Following the first quarter, which saw lower-than-expected vehicle deliveries, Tesla set new delivery records in the second quarter, only to end once more at a loss. Yet, together with this, the company also ended the quarter in more stable footing, as shown by its $5 billion in cash, the largest in its history. This was recently addressed by Baird analyst Ben Kallo, who noted that “back to the cash flow they generated during the quarter, there’s a couple of hundred million dollars, so this idea that they don’t make money is completely wrong, and the headline needs to change. There’s $5 billion in the balance sheet. They’re not going out of business.” Ultimately, the Model Y and Gigafactory 3 seem to be two projects that are heralding a new era for Tesla: one that is more mature, precise, and poised to disrupt at a scale that’s never seen before.
News
SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit
SpaceX filed with the FCC for Starship Flight 14, its first true orbital launch attempt.
SpaceX has asked the Federal Communications Commission for permission to fly Starlink terminals during Starship’s fourteenth flight test, and the filing lays out a genuine trip to orbit, something the program has never attempted.
Every Starship flight so far, including Flight 13’s successful splashdown in the Indian Ocean on July 24, has flown a suborbital arc that ends with the ship reentering the atmosphere within the same hour it launches. The FCC paperwork describes a mission profile built around an actual orbital insertion instead.
The payload is the other half of the story. Flight 13 carried 20 production Starlink V3 satellites, but because that mission never reached orbit, the satellites reentered along with the ship rather than joining the constellation, something Teslarati covered in detail after SpaceX released footage shot from one of those satellites as it drifted away from Starship in space. Flight 14 is designed to close that gap. If the orbital insertion holds, the roughly 20 V3 satellites onboard would separate into an operational orbit and could eventually go into service, each one rated for about 1 terabit per second of downlink capacity by SpaceX’s own account.
SpaceX announces new Starbase for ‘thousands of Starship launches annually’
Elon Musk first flagged the orbital attempt during SpaceX’s August 4 earnings call, the company’s first as a public entity following its June IPO under the ticker SPCX. He also floated catching the ship with the Starbase tower on the same flight, an idea he walked back on August 20, saying the catch attempt would more likely come “in a few months,” as Teslarati reported at the time. Flight 14 will instead target a splashdown for the ship in the Indian Ocean, the same recovery method used since Flight 12.
Hardware has been catching up to the ambition. Booster 21 completed a full 33-engine static fire on August 28, and Ship 41 finished its own six-engine test the week before. An airspace briefing circulated to pilots on August 20 listed September 15 as the target date, later than the end of August window Musk mentioned on the earnings call, though SpaceX has not confirmed a launch date publicly and Starship schedules routinely slip while hardware and FAA paperwork line up.
The FCC filing itself does not guarantee a launch date. It covers communications authority, and not flight readiness, considering SpaceX still needs Ship 41 fully stacked and cleared by the FAA before Flight 14 can fly. But the filing is a real marker of intent and it puts a specific regulatory process behind what had so far only been Musk’s word on the earnings call.
Tesla is set to launch Cybercab on Thursday at an event in Austin, Texas, which will officially bring the company’s first steering wheel-less and pedal-less vehicle to a limited number of consumers for the first time.
The event, which is invite-only, is still thin on details: we’ll be there, and it seems the event will be held at Gigafactory Texas, but the launch of this vehicle truly relies on it being operational outside of the factory and on public roads.
🚨 Close-Up look at Tesla Cybercab without steering wheel: pic.twitter.com/9TXCDeDCz7
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 3, 2026
Nevertheless, there are some big things to expect, and other things to temper expectations on. For what it’s worth, we believe this event could be perhaps the biggest indication that Tesla is ready to truly enter a new phase and chapter in its historic story.
Tesla Cybercab’s First Foray into the Public with Real-World Riders
Cybercab will likely hit the streets of Austin and the surrounding areas, likely in the established geofence that Tesla has expanded on for the past 14 months. Just yesterday, Tesla expanded it once again by 9 percent.
Tesla will put, for the first time, a vehicle without any manual controls on public roads, likely without any help from teleoperators. This is a truly groundbreaking development if it comes through in this fashion: it would be groundbreaking for Tesla to roll out a truly driverless ride-hailing vehicle.
Cybercab Has Already Been Unveiled
This is not an unveiling event. Cybercab has been released for nearly two years, as Tesla first showed it to the public on October 10, 2024.
FIRST LOOK: Tesla ‘Cybercab’ Robotaxi makes its global debut
While there is some small speculation that Tesla could release the Roadster at the event as a surprise, it seems more likely the focus will be on the Cybercab and the huge accomplishment that will come with releasing a vehicle with no manual controls.
There Will Be a Lot of Hype
What’s important to remember about the Cybercab event is that Tesla will continue to prioritize safety and the rollout will likely be slow, just as it has been with Robotaxi.
One of the biggest complaints about Robotaxi is vehicle population, and the fact that the wait for a ride, at least in some instances, has been longer than most want to admit.
It will take time for this project to truly scale. It will take time for Tesla to roll this out in a large fashion. The important thing to note is that they are doing it, and they’re doing it with a vehicle that is completely engineered and built internally. That’s something no other ride-hailing service can say.
Elon Musk recently restated a fact that still defines SpaceX’s origin story: if Falcon 1’s fourth launch had failed, the company would not exist. The comment answered a reminder that after three consecutive losses, SpaceX had money for only one more attempt.
On X, Peter Diamandis said that the present-day acknowledgement of SpaceX’s success does not discount the rough start the company had. “Almost nobody remembers that Elon’s first rocket failed three times, and there was money for exactly only one more attempt.”
Musk said, “If the 4th launch had failed, SpaceX would not exist.”
If the 4th launch had failed, SpaceX would not exist
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 30, 2026
In late 2008, the firm was nearly out of cash. Another failure would have ended payroll, closed the Hawthorne factory, and left the Falcon 9 and Dragon programs as unfinished drawings.
The first flight lifted off from Omelek Island on 24 March 2006. Thirty-three seconds later, a corroded aluminum fitting on a fuel line leaked. Kerosene ignited around the Merlin engine, control was lost, and the vehicle came apart. The small DARPA payload, FalconSAT-2, survived the short flight only to land on a storage shed near the pad. Investigators later traced the fitting to a materials mix-up that should never have reached the rocket.
Flight 2, on 21 March 2007, looked far better at first. The first stage burned cleanly and handed off to the Kestrel-powered upper stage. The vehicle crossed 100 kilometers and reached a peak of about 289 kilometers. Then propellant slosh in the second-stage tank started a circular coning motion that grew until the engine shut down. Telemetry faded as the stage tumbled, and SpaceX had reached space but not orbit. Over the next year, the team redesigned everything from the ground up, including tanks, baffles, and the new regeneratively cooled Merlin 1C.
That engine flew on Flight 3 on 2 August 2008. The first stage performed almost perfectly and reached 217 kilometers. After main-engine cutoff, leftover fuel in the cooling channels produced a faint residual thrust, roughly 10 pounds per square inch of chamber pressure. On a Texas test stand, the effect was invisible beneath ambient air pressure. In vacuum it was enough to push the spent first stage back into the second stage after separation. The stages collided, the upper stage spun, and the mission was lost. Musk later said a slightly longer delay before staging would have saved the flight.
Six weeks later, the team assembled Flight 4 from remaining parts and flew it on 28 September 2008 at 23:15 UTC. The payload was Ratsat, a 165-kilogram aluminum mass simulator built in-house. Staging was delayed so residual thrust could decay. The Kestrel ignited, the fairing split away, and nine and a half minutes after liftoff the vehicle was in orbit. After a coast, the second stage restarted, settling into a 621-by-643-kilometer path at 9.35 degrees inclination. Falcon 1 became the first privately developed liquid-fueled rocket to reach Earth orbit. Musk called the insertion “middle of the bull’s-eye.”
SpaceX restores a Falcon 1 rocket for 10th anniversary of first launch success
That success unlocked NASA’s Commercial Resupply Services award later that year. Without it, there would have been no Falcon 9, no reusable first stages, and no Dragon cargo or crew flights to the International Space Station. Launch prices would have remained far higher. Starlink’s constellation would not exist; broadband from low Earth orbit would still be a paper concept.
Ride-share markets, high launch cadence, and the current pace of lunar and Mars hardware would be years behind. Communications, Earth observation, and the cost of putting anything into space would look more like the 2000s than the 2020s.
One extra second of residual thrust in August 2008 would have written a different decade.
SpaceX tells the FCC that Starship Flight 14 is going to orbit
Tesla Cybercab Event: what to expect from Austin
